Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Attractive Latam growth exposure

We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK190 (195) on lower estimates due to FX. We expect healthy Q1 revenue growth of 16% YOY, slightly offset by cost inflation, partly due to the recent technology bolt-on acquisition of Sporting Solutions. We maintain a positive view of rising EPS, FCF and net cash, boding well for potential further attractive acquisitions. The Q1 results are due at 07:30 CET on 29 April.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK195.00) - Building for more growth

We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK195 (180) after a solid Q4, the 12th consecutive quarter with sequential EBIT growth. 2025 started somewhat better than we expected (daily average revenue +20% YOY in January). Net cash continues to grow (2025e EUR262m) despite an increasing dividend (6% dividend yield), which opens the way for more value-enhancing bolt-on M&A near-term, we believe.

Betsson Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates on minor FX and opex adjustments. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our SEK180 target price. We estimate Q4 revenue growth of 16% YOY and EBIT of EUR71.8m, up 26% YOY. Moreover, for 2024 we expect a proposed DPS of EUR0.70 (SEK~8.05), in line with the company’s 50% payout policy. The results are due at 07:30 CET on 6 February.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Latin America the main attraction

We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK180 (175) after increasing our 2024–2025e EBIT by 1–3%. Latin America continued to surprise on the upside, and upcoming Brazilian regulation presents an interesting growth opportunity. We find the valuation attractive (trading at a 2025e FCF yield of 13% and P/E of 7x) in light of a 2023–2026e EBIT CAGR of 14% with a positive earnings revisions trend.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK175.00) - Earnings trend on track in H2e

We reiterate our BUY and SEK175 target price ahead of the Q3 results (due at 07:30 CET on 24 October). We expect a solid quarter, and our EBIT of EUR67m is c6% above consensus. A key question is to what extent Betsson was able to capitalise on strong player intake in the summer’s key football events. We remain positive on the growth outlook, and question how long the company can prioritise potential bolt-on M&A over buybacks.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK175.00) - Player intake solidifying outlook

We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK175 (170) following a 2% increase to our 2024–2025e EBIT. Q3 has started off well thanks to strong player intake during major football tournaments, and we see room for continued positive revisions to the already strong >20% EBIT growth YOY in 2024e. Latin America remains a highlight in the growth story, along with potential further M&A and cash distributions.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - The name of the game

We reiterate our BUY and SEK170 target price ahead of the Q2 results, including high player activity during the group stages of the UEFA Euro and Conmebol Copa América. While there could be potential near-term surprises (upside/downside), we view these football tournaments mainly as a chance to grow the active player base with a possible positive earnings effect further out. Our forecasts are intact, and we see more upside potential from healthy earnings and cash flow.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - Super-scaling into the future

We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK170 (155) after increasing our 2024–2025e EBIT by 11–7%. Q2 to date has exceeded our expectations, and we forecast further healthy earnings in the coming quarters (cost control alongside high player activity driving solid revenues from key upcoming football tournaments). Betsson’s 2024e net cash of EUR142m should enable further M&A and solid cash distribution.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - Disciplined start to the year

We reiterate our BUY and SEK155 target price, reflecting mostly unchanged 2024 estimates. Our impression is that the Q1 sports margin was slightly below average, but that e.g. Betsson’s disciplined marketing spending should have protected a solid EBIT. To us, Betsson looks well positioned for an event-driven year with large customer intake potential, laying the foundation for growth in 2024–2026e.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - Follow the cash generation

We reiterate our BUY and SEK155 target price after fine-tuning our 2024–2025e EPS, following the in-line Q4 results. Despite a lower than usual sports margin YTD and continued sharp negative FX, 2024 started with revenue up 6% YOY. Looking ahead, we expect more healthy shareholder distributions and further potential for bolt-on acquisitions, supporting the strategic ambition of profitable growth through geographic expansion.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - In good shape with strong dividend

We reiterate our BUY, but with a lowered target price of SEK155 (160) reflecting a 2% cut to our 2023–2024e EPS based on a lower Q4 EBIT forecast and negative FX. In a wider perspective, Q4 still looks like a healthy quarter (EBIT +40% YOY); we see an upbeat picture for 2024, with growth opportunities from e.g. UEFA EURO and CONMEBOL Copa America; and we expect a proposed 2023 DPS of SEK7.60 (up >50% YOY), equalling an attractive 7% dividend yield.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Profitable expansion continues

We believe consensus remains too cautious on the outlook for the near and medium term, as Betsson continued to achieve close to 40% organic growth YOY in its QTD trading, despite a lower-than-average sports margin. Q3 EBIT was 20% above our forecast owing to strong cost control, and we view the increased share of revenue from locally licensed markets as encouraging. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK160 (155) on 3% higher 2024e EPS.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - Eying Brazilian re-regulation

We expect Q3 EBIT growth to exceed 20% YOY despite a temporarily soft sports betting margin, reflecting player-friendly football results (Q3 results due at 07:30 CET on 26 October). We have lowered our 2023e EBIT by 4% but only fine-tuned 2024–2025e. With a positive outlook, including Q4e earnings, cautious consensus for 2024e, and upcoming Brazilian re-regulation, we reiterate our BUY and SEK155 target price.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - Razor-sharp ROI focus

Since the most recent update (in relation to the reversed Q2 profit warning on 11 July), Betsson’s daily average revenue growth YOY has accelerated in Q3, and we have raised our 2023e EPS by 6% to reflect the positive growth trends and the company’s strong ROI commitment paying off (OCF currently growing >100% YOY). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK155 (150).

Northern Lights

Northern Lights

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Going for EUR200m EBIT in 2023e

Following strong recent trends – including the trading update with Q2 EBIT materially above consensus – we have raised our 2023e EPS by 7%. Our 2023–2025 forecast is c20% above latest consensus (Infront, 9 May); we see promising potential synergies from the betFIRST acquisition and more upside given the strong growth and relatively low valuation. We maintain our BUY, with a raised SEK150 (145) target price.

Northern Lights

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK145.00) - Strong Q2e and acquisition

We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK145 (140) ahead of the Q2 results (due at 07:30 CET on 20 July). We expect strong Q2 EBIT (up c60% YOY), driven by healthy organic revenue growth, successful expansion, and maintained cost control. We have increased our 2023–2025e EBIT slightly (betFIRST acquisition more than offset negative FX). With our Q2e and 2023e EBIT 15–10% above consensus, we see further share price upside potential.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - A revision story with momentum

We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK140 (120), having increased our 2023e EPS by c20% to reflect the strong revenue-growth trend, the Q1 earnings beat and the positive start to Q2. Our updated 2023e EBIT is notably above (Infront, pre-Q1) consensus. We see more upside potential from Latam growth and ROI-focused expansion.