Transactions, CMD and halted DPS

This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.

CMD next week

It's all about sales momentum from here

Bravida Holding AB: 1 director

A director at Bravida Holding AB sold 12,000 shares at 83.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market

This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - Strong earnings, raised guidance

While Q3 sales were a little light, earnings were well above our estimate and consensus. Following the results, Camurus raised its 2024 sales and PTP guidance. We believe the complete response letter (CRL) for Oclaiz™ in the US could be resolved by Q1 and the product launched in the US in Q2. A European approval for Oclaiz™ could come around mid-2025, we believe. Data read-out from the SORENTO trial (being an event-driven trial) is now expected late-2025/early-2026 (Q2 2025 originally). We reite...

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK30.00) - Q3 miss, Urban Property covenants

While Q3 was an expected low season, with few deliveries, EPS was below our forecast on higher costs. The POC EBIT margin also fell more than we estimated, but we expect this to improve in the coming quarters with more starts. The company said it has renegotiated the terms with Urban Property, and the NIBD/EBITDA covenant will now use the POC (NGAAP) figures (previously volatile IFRS figures), thereby removing the potential 2025 covenant breach. However, we continue to find consensus recovery ex...

Camurus: Q3 highlighted strong profitability

Camurus reported its Q3 2024 results which came in slightly below market expectations for revenues, as i) total revenues came in at SEK480m (vs css SEK 499m, -3.8%), ii) Buvidal sales came in at SEK421m (vs css SEK429m, -1.9%), and iii) Brixadi royalties at SEK58m (vs css SEK66.8m, -13.2%). On a po

Running interest payments to UP from 2025e

Still the fittest in the room

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK26.00) - Working out nicely

The Q3 results were broadly in line with consensus, and SATS’ outlook was little changed. We reiterate our BUY as we still find the stock attractively valued, trading at a 2025 P/E of 11x on our estimates, and have raised our target price to NOK26 (25) on our slightly higher forecasts and peer group multiples. A reinstated dividend policy from H2 2025 (>50% of EPS), and scope for buybacks up to NOK500m are potential share-price catalysts.

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK25.00) - Q3 earnings in line with consensus

We consider this a mixed report for SATS, including adj. EBITDA in line with consensus, but a soft mix, with all countries except Denmark just below expectations, and a group membership base 5k below consensus. We expect only minor revisions to consensus following the report.

EBIT as expected

Sales 1% better, EBIT 4% better. Denmark explains the beat.CF soft on timing of rent payment. Outlook reiterated.

Two upgrades, an equity raise, and transactions

This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Q3 beat, edging closer to targets

Q3 earnings outperformed expectations, and Orkla is making good progress towards its targets. We reiterate our HOLD as we view the stock as fairly valued, trading in line with our SOTP, but have raised our target price to NOK105 (100) on our positive estimate revisions.

Still serving it hot

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Latin America the main attraction

We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK180 (175) after increasing our 2024–2025e EBIT by 1–3%. Latin America continued to surprise on the upside, and upcoming Brazilian regulation presents an interesting growth opportunity. We find the valuation attractive (trading at a 2025e FCF yield of 13% and P/E of 7x) in light of a 2023–2026e EBIT CAGR of 14% with a positive earnings revisions trend.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK100.00) - Underlying figures beat consensus

We consider this a slightly positive report for Orkla, including underlying figures above expectations, partly masked by write-downs, and no material change in outlook. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBIT to come up 2–3% and believe a slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Rock solid beat

Core EBIT 8% better on 0.4pp higher EBIT margin and sales 3% better. Underlying '24 / '25 estm up 3-4%, stock up 4-5%

Q3 and rental KPIs in focus

This week, reporting season was in full swing, with nine covered companies reporting Q3 results. Overall, the results were mixed, while net lettings and vacancy rates were main points of interest given the current weak rental markets. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.