After a decent Q1, solid 70% revenue growth YOY in Latin America (1/4 of group revenue) and a surprisingly strong start to Q2 (c20% group revenue growth YOY in April), we have raised our 2025e EBIT by 3%. We expect net cash to increase to EUR242m at end-2025e, enabling more potential acquisitions and growth exceeding the structurally expanding market. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK195 (190).
We reiterate our BUY and EUR11 target price, with only small estimate changes following the Q1 results (which brought stronger orders but softer earnings than we expected). Despite general uncertainties, we continue to view Metso’s end-market exposure, financials and valuation as attractive.
We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK190 (195) on lower estimates due to FX. We expect healthy Q1 revenue growth of 16% YOY, slightly offset by cost inflation, partly due to the recent technology bolt-on acquisition of Sporting Solutions. We maintain a positive view of rising EPS, FCF and net cash, boding well for potential further attractive acquisitions. The Q1 results are due at 07:30 CET on 29 April.
Our review of 12 major miners’ guidance suggests 6% YOY capex growth in 2025, with growth project capex up 23%. Copper remains a key investment priority, accounting for c35% of miners’ capex, driven by global megatrends and supply constraints. This is particularly supportive for our BUY names: Metso (32% copper exposure), Epiroc (28%), and FLSmidth (21%), while Sandvik (HOLD) also stands to benefit, although its large metal-cutting tools business reduces its direct copper exposure to 12%.
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