Early Q2 players up 1% vs Q1

A new base

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK195.00) - Aiming for the next league

Q1 earnings fell shy of our forecast due to non-cash FX revaluations, and the company maintained its underlying 2025 EBITA guidance of EUR20m–25m. We remain confident of an earnings improvement during the year – driven by a greater contribution from Brazil, the launch of the key OLG contract and cost efficiencies – and expect the client pipeline to materialise further. We reiterate our BUY and SEK195 target price.

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1100.00) - Play it right in fencing

Despite intact 2025 EBITDA margin guidance, a soft Q1 and near-term uncertainties made us cut our 2025–2027e EPS by c10%. The step-up of focus on regulated markets supports the long-term case, although it comes with costs near-term. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK1,100 (1,440). We expect buybacks, expansion, new games, and growth improvements to strengthen the story later in 2025.

Big Q1 disappointment, but exaggerated reaction

Outlook unchanged, keep BUY

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK195.00) - Resilient growth and new markets

After a decent Q1, solid 70% revenue growth YOY in Latin America (1/4 of group revenue) and a surprisingly strong start to Q2 (c20% group revenue growth YOY in April), we have raised our 2025e EBIT by 3%. We expect net cash to increase to EUR242m at end-2025e, enabling more potential acquisitions and growth exceeding the structurally expanding market. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK195 (190).

Big sales miss, concerning growth numbers

Slight Q1 sales miss, reiterated '25 guidance

Heads-up for report 30 April

Treading water until '26e acceleration

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Buying opportunity on our data

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average players grew by 10% QOQ in Q1, compared with our quarterly average Live revenue growth of 3% for 2025e. While still early, Q2 has started very strongly, with 12% QOQ player growth so far. In conclusion, our data signals strong underlying demand for Evolution’s products and a vital recovery after the H2 headwinds.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Attractive Latam growth exposure

We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK190 (195) on lower estimates due to FX. We expect healthy Q1 revenue growth of 16% YOY, slightly offset by cost inflation, partly due to the recent technology bolt-on acquisition of Sporting Solutions. We maintain a positive view of rising EPS, FCF and net cash, boding well for potential further attractive acquisitions. The Q1 results are due at 07:30 CET on 29 April.

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK195.00) - Decent start to 2025

We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK195 (200) on trimmed estimates (weak USD). We forecast decent Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 30 April), including adj. EBIT of EUR5.4m, down slightly YOY, reflecting the Kindred contract and raised gaming taxes. We expect the 2025 adj. EBIT guidance to be maintained, and see potential for client signings, stricter cost efficiency and better capital distribution.

Awaiting acceleration

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - A step forward

With our unchanged estimates, the well-flagged near-term headwinds and strong player trends confirmed by our tracker, we reiterate our BUY and SEK1,440 target price ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:30 CET on 30 April). We forecast revenue up 8% YOY and EBITDA of EUR367m (Bloomberg consensus EUR369m). Short-term potential catalysts include the UKGC review conclusions and any signs of revenue growth resilience.

Stars and stripes

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Our data reinforces the growth story

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average player total has increased by a healthy 8% QOQ so far in Q1. March has surprised positively, with 9% MOM growth so far, and the ‘Speed Baccarat’ data bodes well for potential signs of resilience in the key Asia segment. After the challenges in H2 2024, the current trends reinforce Evolution’s Live growth story; we reiterate our BUY and SEK1,440 target price.

Kambi Group Plc: 1 director

A director at Kambi Group Plc bought 20,000 shares at 106.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Stable February player data