Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Set for continuation of Q4 trends

For Q1 (results due at 07:30 CET on 8 May), we see similar trends as in Q4. We forecast 20% YOY revenue growth, driven by User revenues and Truecaller for Business (TfB), but expect EBITDA to be affected by incentive costs. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK90 (95).

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) - Dominance in India

We recently made an investor trip to India, where we met with the management team and discussed Truecaller’s operations, supporting our positive view. Perhaps the key highlight was that all but one person we talked to were users of Truecaller. This shows the exceptional position Truecaller has in India, and the reason why the free version should be able to sustain a dominant position in that market. Below we list five main conclusions from our trip to India.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) -

Revenue grew 23% YOY, driven by a 16% increase in DAU. The company intends to increase growth investments in 2025, driving our positive revenue revisions. We maintain our favourable view of the iOS launch, and reiterate our BUY. We have raised our target price to SEK95 (80).

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) - Growth accelerating

Revenue grew 23% YOY, driven by a 16% increase in DAU. The company intends to increase growth investments in 2025, driving our positive revenue revisions. We maintain our favourable view of the iOS launch, and reiterate our BUY. We have raised our target price to SEK95 (80).

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK80.00) - Case for 2025 yet to unfold

We expect solid Q4 revenues, but given our higher incentive cost estimate, we are 5% below consensus on EBITDA (results due at 07:30 CET on 18 February). However, key to the case in our view is the recent launch of Truecaller’s iOS product, which we believe will drive solid revenue growth and consensus higher. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK80 (60).

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK60.00) - iOS product a game changer

Sinch is set to launch a new iOS product when iOS18.2 is released later in Q4, and Truecaller aims to convert iOS users to Premium subscribers in 2025. This could be a game changer, boosting revenue growth and driving more stable subscription revenues.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK60.00) - iOS launch improving growth

Q3 was solid overall, with record subscriber intake, a return to growth in advertising revenues, and 15% YOY revenue growth. We believe the iOS launch set for Q4 will help boost User revenue growth. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK60 (53).

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK53.00) - Expecting 16% revenue growth in Q3

We expect a return to growth in Advertising revenues in Q3, broadly stable growth QOQ in User revenues, and increased momentum in Truecaller for Business (TfB) following price rises. We expect the launch of the new iOS product to improve User growth further in Q4 and in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK53 (50).

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Improved recurring revenue

Advertising revenues were under pressure in Q2 and there are no signs of a near-term recovery. However, user/subscriber intake is strong and User revenues and TfB are accelerating. We reiterate our BUY and SEK50 target price.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Look beyond a weak Q2

Truecaller has already indicated that Advertising revenues will be affected by lower YOY IPL revenues. We are below consensus on Q2 sales (by 3%) and EBITDA (by 5%). For H2, we forecast 20% YOY growth and believe valuation is appealing. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK50 (46).

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK46.00) - Solid underlying growth

Truecaller reported above consensus Q1 sales forecast, driven by marketing revenues boosted by IPL. However, as it indicated much lower IPL revenues for Q2, we have reduced our estimates for the quarter. We reiterate our BUY and SEK46 target price.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK46.00) - Facing easy comparables in Q1

We believe our Q1 revenue assumptions could prove conservative (results due at 07:30 CET on 7 May), but we are still 3% above consensus on sales and 5% above on EBITDA. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK46 (40) on higher peer multiples.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK40.00) - Weighed down by weak ad market

The Q4 report was still burdened by a weak advertising market. We believe the stock will start to perform when the advertising market recovers, although there are no signs of recovery soon. Meanwhile, the stock appears low priced, with support from share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY and SEK40 target price.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK40.00) - Continued weak advertising market

Both we and consensus seem to have factored in slowing subscriber intake and a continued soft advertising market in Q4. We believe this means the Q4 report should be de-risked. We reiterate our BUY and SEK40 target price.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK40.00) - Q4 de-risked

Q3 net sales missed consensus by 13%, while EBITDA undershot by 22%, both reflecting weakness in advertising revenues. In turn, we have cut our Q4 2023–Q2 2024e advertising revenue growth estimates sharply, and lowered our target price to SEK40 (55), but reiterate our BUY following the recent drop in the share price.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK55.00) - A soft ad market reflected

In 2023, Truecaller has been affected by lower demand for digital advertising, hurting advertising revenues. Q2 had benefited from India’s cricket league driving higher advertising demand, but we believe demand has returned to the level seen at end-Q1. We reiterate our BUY and SEK55 target price. Truecaller is set to report its Q3 results at 07:30 CET on 27 October.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK55.00) - Solid cost control

Solid cost control Truecaller reported a very solid Q2, with support for Advertising revenues from India’s cricket season combined with tight cost control, resulting in solid margins. We have raised our2024e EBITDA by 7% and our target price to SEK55 (48), and reiterate our BUY.

Northern Lights

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK48.00) - IPL pushing Truecaller to growth

We expect a return to revenue growth in Q2 YOY on an improved subscriber intake and advertising market, partly supported by the Indian Premier League (cricket) season. We are 2% above consensus on sales and 6% above on EBITDA, and reiterate our BUY and SEK48 target price.

Swedish Small - caps - summer 2023

Swedish Small - caps - summer 2023