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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Walmart 3Q24/25 results. IBA: Rhodotron contract to equip a sterilization facility in Mexico. NEPI Rockcastle: Sound operational momentum. UCB: Final approval for Bimzelx in the United States

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+5)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Lewi
Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB FIRST LOOK: FDA gives 5/5 with Bimzelx' new approval in HS

UCB has received a 5th nod for Bimzelx as hidradenitis suppurativa joins the fray of approved indications. We see an important role for Bimzelx in this emerging disease space with clear potential to become standard of care over time given its clear outperformance over Novartis' Cosentyx in the clinic. We reiterate our € 173 TP and Accumulate rating.

Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB FIRST LOOK: First takes on dapimap's Ph3 results in SLE

UCB shared first insights into the Phase 3 data on dapimap in SLE, which appear generally favourable with a 14.6% BICLA benefit after 48 weeks vs. SoC. The data also shows a steroid tapering effect and reduction in flares, while suggesting possible outperformance vs. current market leader Benlysta (GSK). Dapimap is co-developed with Biogen and will be continued in a second Ph3 study. We reiterate our € 173 TP and Accumulate rating.

Guy Sips ... (+4)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Vranken
David Vagman ... (+3)
  • David Vagman
  • CFA
  • Maxime Stranart

UCB/The gift that keeps on giving/BUY

We reiterate our BUY rating on UCB and increase our target price from €180 to €212. After almost a year on the ING Benelux Favourites List, we believe it is an opportune time to remove UCB as we view our upside as more risky than in the past as it is increasingly weighted towards UCB's development pipeline. Nonetheless, we remain confident in UCB's equity story, driven by INGF €6bn peak sales for Bimzelx, a continued strong performance of secondary growth engines Evenity and Rystiggo, as well as...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Adecco: 3Q24 miss; stabilising trends in 3Q24 and into 4Q24; accelerating cost savings. B&S Group: 3Q24 preview - liquor bottoming into 4Q24? Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Almost the real thing. D'Ieteren: Belgian October car registrations down 5.5%, VW down 11%. Kinepolis: Oct US/Canada box office at 59% of pre Covid level, France recovery to 78%. Recticel: 3Q24 compares well with Kingspan. Renewi: 1H25 preview - battling cost inflation with self help. Syensqo: Slight beat on 3Q...

Jacob Mekhael ... (+3)
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Marc Zwartsenburg ... (+2)
  • Marc Zwartsenburg
  • CEFA

PostNL/Mail remains a headache/HOLD

We keep our HOLD rating but lower our target price from €1.20 to €1.10 reflecting our trimmed estimates. As long as we lack visibility on the outcome of the potential relaxation of the delivery model in mail and perhaps compensation for losses in the Universal Service Obligation (USO), we expect that inflationary pressures in Mail will balance out the upside potential in Parcels. This will in our view prevent a re-rating of the shares also as the soft economic outlook combined with intense compe...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ageas: More bidders for ESURE UK ASR: Completion of KNAB sale, starting extra SBB D'Ieteren: Holding financing more costly, 2024 guidance (excluding financing) reassures Ebusco: Released from obligation to deliver 76 buses PostNL: 3Q24 below, FY24 outlook down, mail weak, parcels stronger; CEO steps down Sif Group: Preview - getting ready for 2025 Staffing: US temp volume weaker in October, Aug/Sep revised down, NFP jobs miss

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+4)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Jacob Mekhael
  • Jacob Mekhael

UCB Bepranemab shows mixed results in Alzheimer's phase 2a

UCB presented results from the phase 2a (TOGETHER) study of bepranemab (antibody targeting the mid-region of tau) in people living with prodromal to mild Alzheimer's disease (AD) during a late-breaker at the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer's Disease (CTAD) conference. The results showed a miss on the primary endpoint, but some signal on secondary endpoints and in sub-group analysis. With the candidate back with UCB from Genentech, the company is evaluating next steps in the development program. We...

Stefano Toffano ... (+2)
  • Stefano Toffano
  • Wim Gille

PostNL : Another tough quarter. CEO to step down in Q2 25

>Normalised EBIT below ccs and AAOBe driven by mix pressures - While Q3 is a relatively small quarter, today’s results highlight once again the company’s structural challenges. Q3 24 group revenue was slightly higher than ccs and our expectations, coming it at € 756m for the quarter. Normalised EBIT was € -18m (€ -12m for Q3 23), much lower than ccs. The quarter was once again marked by a strong unfavourable mix effects in both Parcels and Mail, and continued pressur...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: 3Q24 preview - no signs of recovery expected. AB InBev: All to play for in the final quarter. Arcadis: A mixed bag. Ayvens: Struggling to get out of neutral. dsm-firmenich: Taking your vitamins is healthy. D'Ieteren: Belron equity at €23.5bn, EV €32.2bn in minority shareholder transaction. Euronext: 3Q24 and CMD Preview. Flow Traders: Bumper harvest. Heijmans: 3Q24 as expected, keeps FY outlook in place. Proximus: Key politician pushing for major governance shake up. ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Preview 3Q24 Econocom: 3Q24 impressive sales of 6%, driven by leasing Greenyard: No Fruit Farm? PostNL: Preview 3Q24F; consensus released; (implied) warning? Randstad: 3Q24 beats 2% on lower opex; outlook 4Q24 c.3/4% below consensus; better than expected; nice strategic and accretive acquisition. UCB: Regains all global rights to Bepranemab. Var Energi: Pressure on costs continues. Events Calendar

Thibault Leneeuw ... (+3)
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/17/2024

We measured the impact of the contribution from Michel Barnier’s exceptional tax on 88 stocks exposed to France. Some 17 of them would experience a (negative) impact on their EPS of more than 4% on average over 2024 and 2025: LDC (-8.3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7.9%), ADP (-7.9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6.9%), Derichebourg (-6.3%), Hermès (-5.6%), Safran (-5.6%), Bouygues (-5.6%), M6 (-5.2%), Thales (-5%), TF1 (-4.9%), Nexans (-4.9%), Vinci (-4.7%), Compagnie des Alpes (...

Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 17/10/2024

Nous avons mesuré l’impact de la contribution exceptionnelle Barnier sur 88 valeurs exposées à la France. 17 d’entre elles auraient un impact (négatif) sur leurs BPA de plus de 4% en moyenne sur 2024 et 2025 : LDC (-8,3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7,9%) ADP (-7,9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6,9%), Derichebourg (-6,3%), Hermès (-5,6%), Safran (-5,6%), Bouygues (-5,6%), M6 (-5,2%), Thalès (-5%), TF1 (-4,9%), Nexans (-4,9%), Vinci (-4,7%), Compagnie des Alpes (-4,4%), FDJ (-4%). - ...

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