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Marc Zwartsenburg ... (+2)
  • Marc Zwartsenburg
  • CEFA

PostNL/Mail remains a headache/HOLD

We keep our HOLD rating but lower our target price from €1.20 to €1.10 reflecting our trimmed estimates. As long as we lack visibility on the outcome of the potential relaxation of the delivery model in mail and perhaps compensation for losses in the Universal Service Obligation (USO), we expect that inflationary pressures in Mail will balance out the upside potential in Parcels. This will in our view prevent a re-rating of the shares also as the soft economic outlook combined with intense compe...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ageas: More bidders for ESURE UK ASR: Completion of KNAB sale, starting extra SBB D'Ieteren: Holding financing more costly, 2024 guidance (excluding financing) reassures Ebusco: Released from obligation to deliver 76 buses PostNL: 3Q24 below, FY24 outlook down, mail weak, parcels stronger; CEO steps down Sif Group: Preview - getting ready for 2025 Staffing: US temp volume weaker in October, Aug/Sep revised down, NFP jobs miss

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+4)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Jacob Mekhael
  • Jacob Mekhael

UCB Bepranemab shows mixed results in Alzheimer's phase 2a

UCB presented results from the phase 2a (TOGETHER) study of bepranemab (antibody targeting the mid-region of tau) in people living with prodromal to mild Alzheimer's disease (AD) during a late-breaker at the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer's Disease (CTAD) conference. The results showed a miss on the primary endpoint, but some signal on secondary endpoints and in sub-group analysis. With the candidate back with UCB from Genentech, the company is evaluating next steps in the development program. We...

Stefano Toffano ... (+2)
  • Stefano Toffano
  • Wim Gille

PostNL : Another tough quarter. CEO to step down in Q2 25

>Normalised EBIT below ccs and AAOBe driven by mix pressures - While Q3 is a relatively small quarter, today’s results highlight once again the company’s structural challenges. Q3 24 group revenue was slightly higher than ccs and our expectations, coming it at € 756m for the quarter. Normalised EBIT was € -18m (€ -12m for Q3 23), much lower than ccs. The quarter was once again marked by a strong unfavourable mix effects in both Parcels and Mail, and continued pressur...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: 3Q24 preview - no signs of recovery expected. AB InBev: All to play for in the final quarter. Arcadis: A mixed bag. Ayvens: Struggling to get out of neutral. dsm-firmenich: Taking your vitamins is healthy. D'Ieteren: Belron equity at €23.5bn, EV €32.2bn in minority shareholder transaction. Euronext: 3Q24 and CMD Preview. Flow Traders: Bumper harvest. Heijmans: 3Q24 as expected, keeps FY outlook in place. Proximus: Key politician pushing for major governance shake up. ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Preview 3Q24 Econocom: 3Q24 impressive sales of 6%, driven by leasing Greenyard: No Fruit Farm? PostNL: Preview 3Q24F; consensus released; (implied) warning? Randstad: 3Q24 beats 2% on lower opex; outlook 4Q24 c.3/4% below consensus; better than expected; nice strategic and accretive acquisition. UCB: Regains all global rights to Bepranemab. Var Energi: Pressure on costs continues. Events Calendar

Thibault Leneeuw ... (+3)
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/17/2024

We measured the impact of the contribution from Michel Barnier’s exceptional tax on 88 stocks exposed to France. Some 17 of them would experience a (negative) impact on their EPS of more than 4% on average over 2024 and 2025: LDC (-8.3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7.9%), ADP (-7.9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6.9%), Derichebourg (-6.3%), Hermès (-5.6%), Safran (-5.6%), Bouygues (-5.6%), M6 (-5.2%), Thales (-5%), TF1 (-4.9%), Nexans (-4.9%), Vinci (-4.7%), Compagnie des Alpes (...

Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 17/10/2024

Nous avons mesuré l’impact de la contribution exceptionnelle Barnier sur 88 valeurs exposées à la France. 17 d’entre elles auraient un impact (négatif) sur leurs BPA de plus de 4% en moyenne sur 2024 et 2025 : LDC (-8,3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7,9%) ADP (-7,9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6,9%), Derichebourg (-6,3%), Hermès (-5,6%), Safran (-5,6%), Bouygues (-5,6%), M6 (-5,2%), Thalès (-5%), TF1 (-4,9%), Nexans (-4,9%), Vinci (-4,7%), Compagnie des Alpes (-4,4%), FDJ (-4%). - ...

Stefano Toffano ... (+2)
  • Stefano Toffano
  • Wim Gille

PostNL : Preview Q3 24 (4 November)

>We lower our near term estimates - PostNL’s results so far this year have been trending below our initial expectations, mainly on the back of negative mix effects and the company’s inability to match inflationary pressures. The company maintained its FY24 outlook (a.o. normalised EBIT of € 80-110m and € 0-40m free cash flow) though we believe these target to be challenging. We remain cautious as the above mentioned trends will continue to impact results, with PostNL ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ABN AMRO: NLFI selling down to 30% stake, outlook for below 15%. ASML: 3Q24 results – ouch, that hurts. Gimv: Linking Belgian brewery craftmanship with Dutch commercial spirit. Just Eat Takeaway.com: No order growth yet. PostNL: New CLAs for PostNL employees and for Saturday deliverers

Guy Sips ... (+5)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Lewi
Marc Zwartsenburg ... (+2)
  • Marc Zwartsenburg
  • CEFA

PostNL/Relaxation of mail business model uncertain/HOLD (previously BU...

We downgrade our rating from Buy to HOLD as one of the key angles to our investment case has become highly uncertain. The latest debate in the Dutch parliament regarding a relaxation of the delivery model in mail and potential for compensation for losses in the Universal Service Obligation was not supported and withdrawn. This was a key potential positive which initially seemed highly likely and now seems at best delayed but without a near-term outcome. This, in our view, will limit PNL's abilit...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Fagron: Solid 3Q24 sales beat, M&A back on agenda with 3 sizeable strategic acquisitions. PostNL: Parliamentary debate on Dutch postal market not supportive

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ASML: 3Q24 preview - providing relief. Barco: 3Q24 preview - the road to recovery. PostNL: 3Q24 highlights pre-earnings analyst call. Shell: Upstream better, downstream weaker

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ageas: The Saga continues. ASM International: KKR reportedly interested in ASM PT. D'Ieteren: Belron €8.1bn debt financing at better rates than expected. Elia: Challenges ahead, CEO appointment necessary. Gimv: €150-250m bond issue by Gimv controlling anchor investor WorxInvest. PostNL: Preparation letter on future of Dutch mail market sent to Parliament. Vonovia: Good progress on disposals

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ASM International: Promising next generation SiC Epi system. Exor: Read-across for Stellantis' profit warning. Montea: FBI recognition for 2023. OCI: Sale of Clean Ammonia to Woodside closed. UCB: Positive KOL feedback in Hidradenitis Suppurativa

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