reports
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- Haakon Amundsen
- John Olaisen
- Martin Mauseth
- Stian Wibstad
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
AKAST AKASTOR ASA
PGS PGS ASA
KOG KONGSBERG GRUPPEN ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
PRS PROSAFE
OKEA OKEA
BWE BW ENERGY
BORR BORR DRILLING LTD
VAR VAR ENERGI ASA
SEAPT-NO SEACREST PETROLEO
SDRL-NO SEADRILL
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Sepia and Atapu progressing
Petrobras and its partners have taken final investment decision (FID) for one additional FPSO each on the Sepia and Atapu fields offshore Brazil. Expansion of both projects have been expected and processes to hire relevant oil services (FPSO, drilling and subsea) have been ongoing. First oil is planned for 2029. In relation to the FID, FPSOs have been ordered at Seatrium. For offshore drilling, the initial 3-rig tender for these two developments was launched one year ago, but has been delayed on...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Odfjell Drilling (Buy, TP: NOK85.00) - Distribution capacity underpinn...
Yesterday’s backlog addition at a dayrate of cUSD500k (2026 execution) has further improved the company’s industry-leading backlog coverage. With 5-year surveys, deleveraging, and paying dividends near-term, we believe the next leg of the investment case is higher dividends in 2025e. We have examined the dividend capacity in a scenario where the company stops deleveraging (leverage 1.5x) and find it could return c90% of its market cap to shareholders by end-2028e. We believe the stock will conti...
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Norva24 (Buy, TP: SEK37.00) - Improved acquisition conversion
A weak Q1 was hit by a negative working day impact that normalised in April, so January–April saw 7.1% organic growth YOY and EBITA margin gains YOY. Improved conversion of the acquisition pipeline is driving growth, with recent deals looking value-enhancing. We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 6–7%. Demand in the fragmented European UIM service market remains strong, with Norva24’s model supporting a continued ‘buy-and-build’ sector roll-up strategy. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Odfjell Drilling (Buy, TP: NOK65.00) - Investment case intact
After several quarters with results in line or above expectations, Q1 was slightly negative on somewhat higher capex for its upcoming 5-year surveys. Despite a NOK1.3/share effect compared to our estimates, the investment case remains intact, with an industry-leading cash-flow yield (17–26% yield to EV in 2025–2026e) and highly attractive multiples (adj. 2026e EV/EBITDA of 2.3x). We expect it to continue to outperform the sector, and maintain our BUY and NOK65 target price.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Consensus back in focus and tier-2 deepwater risk
With the start of the Q1 reporting season for Offshore Drilling, we sense increased investor attention on the risk to consensus. Although we like the investment case for its valuation in the out-years (2026), our estimates remain below consensus. We see potential for share price volatility as near-term consensus is revised lower, while investors gradually underwrite 2026 valuations. We also believe the gaps between contracts and increased idle-time risk for tier-2 deepwater rigs are not properly...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Limited change in EP spending
After reviewing oil companies’ most recent spending plans, we estimate offshore spending growth of c7% YOY for 2024, in line with our November update. Growth is concentrated, with Petrobras being the key driver, favouring service companies with Brazil exposure. Looking ahead, further spending growth is likely to be partly limited by total spending already being on a par with operating cash flow. Delayed energy transition spending is seen as positive for oil services, while recent E&P consolidati...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Focus shifting to entry points
Aramco’s rig suspensions came as a negative surprise for many, but we now sense a shift in focus among investors from concern to entry points for jackup names. As many suspended rigs are likely to aggressively look for work elsewhere, we expect mixed news flow to mean still-volatile share prices. Still, we believe current levels in our coverage universe represent a good entry point for long-term investors seeking jackup exposure.
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