reports
- Guan An Tan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Transportation & Logistics: Tariff war posing significant uncert...
The tariff war poses significant uncertainties to global trade. Shipping and ports (MARKET WEIGHT) are impacted due to their high global trade exposure, though their subdued valuation implies limited downside risks. Cargo operations of airlines (UNDERWEIGHT) are hit by both higher tariffs and the US’ de minimis tax change, but weaker fuel prices would support airlines’ near-term earnings. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on domestic consumption-oriented logistics names, with JDL a top pick.
00293 CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS LIMITED
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Merchants Port (144 HK): 2024: Results in line; expect flattish ...
CMP’s 2024 core net profit of HK$6.72b (+13.3% yoy) was in line with our expectations, at 100.4% of our forecast. The miss at the operating profit level was offset by lower net interest expenses and strong JV/associate contributions. For 2025, management has cautiously guided a flattish to low single digit container throughput growth amid geopolitical uncertainties. CMP currently trades at 8.3x/8.3x 2025F/26F PE with decent yields of 6.0%/6.0%. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$14.76.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Guan An Tan
- Jieqi Liu
- Ken Lee
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, April 1, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI strengthened further to 50.5 (+0.3pt mom) while non-manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 (+0.4pt mom) as construction activity improved to 53.4 (+0.7pt mom), alongside a moderate recovery in services at 50.3 (+0.3pt mom). Small-sized enterprises saw a notable improvement to 49.6 (+3.3pt mom) despite being in the contractionary zone, pointing to a broadening of the recovery. Sector Aviation The three airlines’ 2024 results were in line but at the h...
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
6049 POLY PROPERTY SERVICES CO LTD
02208 XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS H
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Merchants Port (144 HK): Acquiring a controlling stake in a majo...
CMP has signed a SPA for a 70% stake in Brazilian crude oil terminal operator Vast. Based on CMP’s disclosure, we are at best neutral towards this deal, noting that it represents an expansion beyond CMP’s core strengths. The deal would moderately lift CMP’s net gearing to about 30% but is unlikely to contribute positively to CMP’s bottom line in the near term. Despite our at-best neutral stance, we maintain BUY on CMP for its cheap valuation, which offers over 6% yield in 2024-26. Our target pri...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Lester Siew
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Philip Wong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, March 03, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Uptick in February. Sector Macau Gaming: Feb 25 GGR beat thanks to tail-end effect post CNY; switch top pick to Galaxy. Results New World Development (17 HK/HOLD/HK$4.82/Target: HK$4.45): 1HFY25: Net loss in line with profit warning and primarily caused by inventory impairment; refinancing progress to be the key. Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK/HOLD/HK$3.29/Target: HK$3.60): 2024: Below expectations; industry coordination and production discipline crucial to restore mar...
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
0968 XINYI SOLAR HOLDINGS LTD.
PLANB PLAN B MEDIA
AWX AEM HOLDINGS
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
5347 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BCH BANGKOK CHAIN HOSPITAL PCL
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
0763 ZTE CORPORATION CLASS H
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
9CI CAPITALAND INVESTMENT LTD
FFB FARM FRESH BHD
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Monday, March 3, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI rebounded to expansionary territory at 50.2 (+1.1pt mom) while non-manufacturing PMI stabilised at 50.4 (+0.2pt mom). Construction activity improved to 52.7 (+3.4pt mom), offsetting weakness in services at 50.0 (-0.3pt mom). Large enterprises led the recovery at 52.5 (+2.6pt mom), while small and medium-sized firms continued to struggle as the former are usually the first to benefit from government-led economic projects. Sector Macau Gaming Maca...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping And Ports: Expect 2025 to be a volatile year, with seve...
The latest economic indicators indicate a tepid global trade outlook in the near term. We expect 2025 to be a volatile year for the shipping and ports sector, subject to a number of geopolitical and industry events. While many of these events point to downside risks, a potential port strike in the US, the most imminent event to watch out for, poses upside risks for the container shipping segment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. BUY OOIL, CSP and CMP. Maintain HOLD on CSH.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Weakening global trade outlook; The US east ...
The latest economic indicators pointed to a weakening global trade outlook, with both China and global manufacturing PMIs standing at sub-50 levels, and their new export order sub-indices sinking deeper in the contractionary territory. Ocean freight rate futures prices have rebounded lately amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the US East Coast port strike, though halted for now, remains a key uncertainty. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. BUY OOIL, CSP and CMP. CSH is downgraded to HOLD.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Merchants Port (144 HK): 1H24: Core earnings a moderate beat; ho...
CMP’s 1H24 headline net profit rose 32.9% yoy, helped by a number of one-off gains. Excluding one-offs, core net profit of HK$3.52b (+8.8% yoy) was a moderate beat to our expectations, at 53.8% of our full-year forecast. We expect core earnings strength to continue into 2H24. CMP raised its 1H24 interim dividend to 25 HK cents. Given its healthy balance sheet and strong operating cash flow, we are hopeful that CMP may raise its dividend payout in 2024. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$15.21.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Ringo Tang Chi Yu
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Monday, September 2, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI The decline in manufacturing PMI steepened in August, falling to 49.1% (-0.3ppt mom), with all sub-indices lower except suppliers’ delivery time. Non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3% (+0.1ppt mom), aided by an improvement in new orders. Overall, the PMI report points to the further slowing of economic activities. The activity for enterprises of all sizes declined but large-sized enterprises remained the most robust compared to small- and medium-sized firms. Sect...
LGX1 CHINA RESOURCES GAS GROUP LIMITED
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
600547 SHANDONG GOLD MINING CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
9896 MINISO GROUP HOLDING LTD
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Jo Yee Ng
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Ringo Tang Chi Yu
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, September 02, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming: Aug 24 GGR up 6% mom, beating expectations. Results China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$11.70/Target: HK$15.21): 1H24: Core earnings a moderate beat; hopeful for higher dividend payout. Maintain BUY. Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK/SELL/HK$2.50/Target: HK$1.80): 2Q24: Net profit misses on ASP. Cut target price from HK$2.00 to HK$1.80. Maintain SELL. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887 CH/BUY/Rmb22.63/Target: Rmb28.40): 2Q24: Earnings dragged by cha...
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
600547 SHANDONG GOLD MINING CO. LTD. CLASS A
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
MSGB MAH SING GROUP BHD
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
AIRPORT MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HOLDINGS BHD
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Freight rates peaked but forward decline is ...
The latest economic indicators for global trade outlook weakened slightly, with both China and global manufacturing PMIs dipping mom and their new export order subindices below 50. Ocean freight rates have peaked, with freight rate futures prices having retreated in the past month amid the Gaza truce talks. Nevertheless, risk-reward for shipping companies is more favourable after the recent share price drops. Maintain MARTKET WEIGHT. OOIL and CSH (upgraded to BUY) offer FY24 yields of about 17%.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping And Ports: Strong freight rates further raise container...
The latest economic indicators for global trade remain mixed with some negative tilt. With the unabated Red Sea attacks, ocean freight futures prices rose further in the past weeks, reflecting the market’s expectations that upbeat freight rates may extend into 1H25. In line with the updated futures price curve, we raise earnings forecasts for our container shipping coverage by over 40% in FY24 and over 100% in FY25 (from a low base). We upgrade OOIL to BUY on its better dividend prospect (FY24 y...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping And Ports: Further strengthened freight rates raising c...
The latest economic indicators for global trade were still mixed but with some positive tilt. Driven by a tight capacity supply-demand balance, prices of Jun/Aug/Oct 24 futures contracts for Shanghai-Europe freight rose 24%/30%/24% from our last update, pointing to even stronger near-term earnings for container shipping. We deem the risk-reward of container shipping stocks largely balanced but think near-term market sentiments may stay strong. Upgrade OOIL to HOLD on raised earnings and dividend...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Greater China Research Team
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Malaysia Research Team
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, June 05, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Call Adding KE Holdings and Wharf REIC to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. Sector Shipping and Ports – China Further strengthened freight rates raising container shipping earnings outlook. Upgrade OOIL to HOLD; Maintain BUY on CSP and CMP, and HOLD on CSH. Update KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/BUY/HK$45.00/Target: HK$55.00) ...
02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
7777 3-D MATRIX
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
CENTEL CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
VALUE VALUE8 N.V.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
MISC MISC BHD
INRI INARI AMERTRON BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
MSGB MAH SING GROUP BHD
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
CPALL TB CP ALL
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
OSP OSOTSPA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
CRC CENTRAL RETAIL CORP
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
NATGATE NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
IOIPG IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Prefer ports over container shipping for bet...
The latest economic indicators for China’s exports were still mixed, with China and global manufacturing PMIs staying above 50, but a weakened US consumer sentiment index. We think China’s potential removal of dividend tax on Hong Kong stocks bought via the Stock Connect will re-rate port stocks, but the risk-reward for shipping stocks is becoming less attractive after the recent strong share price performance. Downgrade CSH to HOLD and OOIL to SELL, and suggest switching to port plays CSP and C...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Merchants Port (144 HK): 2023: Results broadly in line; cheap va...
CMP’s 2023 net profit of HK$6.23b (-19.9% yoy) was broadly in line with our expectation at 97.5% of our forecast. The yoy decline was mainly driven by lower profit contribution from its JVs and associates, including its material associate SIPG, whose performance was in turn adversely affected by lower profit from its shipping investments. CMP’s valuation is attractive, trading at 6.6x/6.5x 2024F/25F PE with attractive yields of 6.8%/6.9%. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$14.80.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, April 2, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI First expansion in six months. Sector Aviation Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in profitability in 2024 with moderate international travel recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Macau Gaming Mar 24 GGR up 6% mom; May 24 Golden Week a potential catalyst. Results China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$3.68/Target: HK$4.43) 2023: Results in line; healthy channel inventory and improved operating efficiency to drive growth. Upgrade to BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.4...
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
LGX1 CHINA RESOURCES GAS GROUP LIMITED
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
00241 ALIBABA HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LTD.
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
2877 CHINA SHINEWAY PHARMACEUTICA
1521 FRONTAGE HOLDINGS CORP
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
02208 XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS H
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Gradually improving global trade outlook. Ma...
Economic indicators for China’s exports were still a mixed bag in Feb 24, but the external environment is gradually improving, in line with our forecast of a moderate rise in global trade by mid-24. Amid the Red Sea attacks, ocean freight rates have been gradually normalising since early-Feb 24 as shipping companies adapt to the situation. We downgrade OOIL to SELL and recommend switching to CSH for shipping exposure. Top picks: CSP for ports and CSH for container shipping. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Economic indicators still point to a slow ne...
Economic indicators for global trade demand were still largely weak in the most recent month, but we maintain our expectations for a moderate reacceleration of global trade by mid-24 driven by potential restocking needs in the US. The ongoing Red Sea crisis has driven a significant surge in spot ocean freight rates in recent weeks, which should bolster shipping players’ near-term earnings. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top picks: CSP for ports and CSH for container shipping.
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