reports
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Prefer ports over container shipping for bet...
The latest economic indicators for China’s exports were still mixed, with China and global manufacturing PMIs staying above 50, but a weakened US consumer sentiment index. We think China’s potential removal of dividend tax on Hong Kong stocks bought via the Stock Connect will re-rate port stocks, but the risk-reward for shipping stocks is becoming less attractive after the recent strong share price performance. Downgrade CSH to HOLD and OOIL to SELL, and suggest switching to port plays CSP and C...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Merchants Port (144 HK): 2023: Results broadly in line; cheap va...
CMP’s 2023 net profit of HK$6.23b (-19.9% yoy) was broadly in line with our expectation at 97.5% of our forecast. The yoy decline was mainly driven by lower profit contribution from its JVs and associates, including its material associate SIPG, whose performance was in turn adversely affected by lower profit from its shipping investments. CMP’s valuation is attractive, trading at 6.6x/6.5x 2024F/25F PE with attractive yields of 6.8%/6.9%. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$14.80.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, April 2, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI First expansion in six months. Sector Aviation Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in profitability in 2024 with moderate international travel recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Macau Gaming Mar 24 GGR up 6% mom; May 24 Golden Week a potential catalyst. Results China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$3.68/Target: HK$4.43) 2023: Results in line; healthy channel inventory and improved operating efficiency to drive growth. Upgrade to BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.4...
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
LGX1 CHINA RESOURCES GAS GROUP LIMITED
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
00241 ALIBABA HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LTD.
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
2877 CHINA SHINEWAY PHARMACEUTICA
1521 FRONTAGE HOLDINGS CORP
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
02208 XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS H
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Gradually improving global trade outlook. Ma...
Economic indicators for China’s exports were still a mixed bag in Feb 24, but the external environment is gradually improving, in line with our forecast of a moderate rise in global trade by mid-24. Amid the Red Sea attacks, ocean freight rates have been gradually normalising since early-Feb 24 as shipping companies adapt to the situation. We downgrade OOIL to SELL and recommend switching to CSH for shipping exposure. Top picks: CSP for ports and CSH for container shipping. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Economic indicators still point to a slow ne...
Economic indicators for global trade demand were still largely weak in the most recent month, but we maintain our expectations for a moderate reacceleration of global trade by mid-24 driven by potential restocking needs in the US. The ongoing Red Sea crisis has driven a significant surge in spot ocean freight rates in recent weeks, which should bolster shipping players’ near-term earnings. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top picks: CSP for ports and CSH for container shipping.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Near-term outlook still subdued; trade volu...
Recent economic indicators still point to a slow near-term trade outlook, but global trade could see a moderate reacceleration in 2024, as the US inventory destocking may come to an end, giving rise to restocking needs by mid-24. This could support Chinese ports’ throughput growth. For container shipping, overcapacity remains an overhang on freight rates in 2024, subduing container shipping players’ earnings outlook. We prefer ports (OVERWEIGHT) to container shipping (MARKET WEIGHT). Top pick: C...
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Jun Sian Tan
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, December 07, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Strong pipeline in 2024; ample monetisation opportunities from party games. Shipping And Ports: Near-term outlook still subdued; trade volume likely to see a moderate pick-up in 2024. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CSP (1199 HK/BUY/Target: HK$6.42). INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,140/Target: Rp2,500): Fixed broadband subscriber numbers might surge 385% from the migration of LINK’s customers. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Results Gamuda (GAM MK/BUY/RM4.41...
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
GAM GAMUDA BHD
DLUM DELEUM BERHAD
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
9999 HK NETEASE INC
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Outlook still largely cautious despite some ...
Most recent economic indicators still indicate a cautious near-term outlook for global trade despite some signs of stabilisation. For container shipping, freight rates have retraced after a short-lived rebound between July and mid-August, implying earnings pressure for container shipping plays in 2H23. For ports, overall container volume of Chinese ports has been largely stable with low-to-mid single-digit growth ytd. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT given the sector’s cheap valuation. Top picks: CSP and ...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Merchants Port (144 HK): 1H23: Results broadly in line; attracti...
CMP’s 1H23 net profit of HK$3.35b (-30.5% yoy) was broadly in line with our expectations. The yoy decline was partly driven by lower profit contribution from its material associate SIPG, whose performance was adversely affected by non-port exposure including shipping investments and property sales. Despite the cautious outlook in the near term, CMP’s valuation appears attractive, trading at 7.3x 2024F PE and offering attractive yields of over 6%. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$13.33.
- Ariel Poh Yun Li
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Terence Chiu
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Thursday, August 31, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Insurance Outstanding 1H23 results from PICC P&C, Ping An and Prudential. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.27/Target: HK$8.80) 1H23: Above expectations; wind power utilisation hours grew 8.4% yoy. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$9.46/Target: HK$13.33) 1H23: Results broadly in line; attractive valuation amid cautious outlook. Maintain BUY. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$33.25/Target: HK$47.48) 1H23: Results beat expectations; leading market position further str...
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
601899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
7777 3-D MATRIX
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
2877 CHINA SHINEWAY PHARMACEUTICA
916 CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP-H
333 MIDEA GROUP
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
6862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
1209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Global trade outlook is likely to stay subdu...
Leading economic indicators for global trade remain weak but we reckon that the weaknesses have been more than priced in by the cheap valuation of our port and container shipping coverage. Maersk recently raised its full-year financial outlook on the back of a better-than-expected 1H23 performance, despite still expecting a subdued 2H23 market outlook. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: CSH (1919 HK/BUY/Target: HK$9.71) and CSP (1199 HK/BUY/Target: HK6.65).
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Weak global trade outlook more than priced i...
Recent economic indicators point to a subdued 2H23 global trade outlook. However, we think the global trade weakness is more than priced in by the cheap valuation of our port and container shipping coverage. CSH’s preliminary results guidance significantly beat our expectations, implying that container shipping players’ earnings may stabilise at levels better than our previous projections. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: CSH (1919 HK/BUY/Target: HK$9.71) and CSP (1199 HK/BUY/Target: HK6.65).
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Merchants Port (144 HK): 2022: Core earnings a slight beat; expe...
CMP’s 2022 core net profit of HK$8.12b (+7.7% yoy) beat our forecast by 6.7%, mainly due to lower-than-projected interest cost. Core operating profit was broadly in line. We expect CMP’s net profit to see a 33% yoy decline in 2023, as we expect its material associate SIPG, whose performance had been boosted by the phenomenal earnings from its shipping investments in 2020-21, to turn in significantly lower profit as shipping profitability normalises. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$13.48.
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Jessie Guo Yuting
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kate Luang
- Kelvin Chau Siu Pong
- Ken Lee
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Terence Chiu
- Tham Mun Hon
- Zhifeng Shen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Monday, April 3, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Points to further recovery, but employment still soft. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$8.97/Target: HK$11.50) 2022: Below expectations; recognition of RMB2,045m in impairment provision. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$12.04/Target: HK$13.48) 2022: Core earnings a slight beat; expecting earnings decline in 2023. Maintain BUY. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$18.96/Target: HK$27.14) 2022: Results below expectations; targeting 20% sale...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
LGX1 CHINA RESOURCES GAS GROUP LIMITED
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
000338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS A
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
601633 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
853 MICROPORT SCIENTIFIC CORP
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
2202 XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCIENCE&TECHNOLOGY
916 CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP-H
6862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD
189 DONGYUE GROUP LTD
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly update: KMG/Tengiz, Ulker, DP World
EM credit spreads were significantly wider while lower-beta IG names outperformed on the back of the move lower in rates this week. In the near term we expect volatility to remain elevated and would maintain a tactically defensive stance.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping And Ports: Global trade is likely to see a muted 1Q23, ...
Recent economic indicators and our channel checks point to a muted 1Q23. However, looking beyond that, global trade is likely to regain strength from 2Q23 onwards, driven by China’s economic activity recovery post its reopening and a potential pick-up in retail consumption of Western countries. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the shipping and port sector - we prefer ports (OVERWEIGHT) over container shipping (MARKET WEIGHT). CSP (1199 HK/BUY/Target: HK$7.79) is our top pick.
- Ankush Kathuria
ICTSI mid year review
The stock price of ICTSI continues to outperform the broader Drewry Port Equity Index. Even though the stock price is down by 11.2% YTD, it has outperformed the Drewry Port Equity index. At the current EV/EBITDA level, ICTSI’s valuation is almost at par with the Drewry Port Equity Index but is still at a 10% discount compared with its long-term average, highlighting the scope for the stock to move up. We estimate the fair value of the company at PHP 218.7, converting into a potential upside of 1...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping & Port: We initiate coverage on China’s shipping and po...
Despite a slowdown in volume growth amid near-term economic headwinds, we expect the port segment’s profitability to be stable due to recent rate hikes and note that China’s integration within RCEP is a medium-term positive. For the container shipping segment, we expect sea freight rates to remain subdued in the medium term and forecast two years of sharp profit declines for the segment in 2023-24. We initiate coverage on the China shipping and port sector with MARKET WEIGHT. We prefer the port ...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping & Port: Blue-chip assets at attractive valuations. MARK...
Despite some slowdown in volume growth amid near-term economic headwinds, we expect the port segment’s profitability to be largely stable due to recent rate hikes and note that China’s integration within RCEP is a medium-term positive. As for the container shipping segment, we expect sea freight rates to remain subdued in the medium term and forecast two years of sharp profit declines for the segment in 2023-24. We initiate coverage on the China shipping and port sector with MARKET WEIGHT. We pr...
- Ankush Kathuria
1H22 Result Update
HPHT briefly underperformed the broader Drewry port equity index in 2H21, but thereafter the stock resumed its relative outperformance. Despite the recent outperformance, the company’s stock remained in the undervalued territory, based on its current EV/EBITDA multiple, which is below compared to its peers and its long-term average. We continue to believe that at the current price the stock is value accretive for mid-to-long term investors. We reiterate our Attractive rating on HPHT with a fair ...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.