Instalco (Buy, TP: SEK46.00) - Trough to Triumph

Following efforts to strengthen its long-term competitiveness in Q4, we expect a 4% YOY decline in organic growth in Q1 – but then a gradual recovery through 2025, led by a cautiously improving installation market, as highlighted in the Q4 CEO statements. We have cut our 2025e and 2026e EBITA by 3% respectively and thus lowered our target price to SEK46 (48), but with still-healthy upside potential, we reiterate our BUY.

Instalco (Buy, TP: SEK48.00) - Soft as expected, but signs of upturn

Sales in Q4 fell 7% YOY (vs consensus -4%), of which organic growth was 7%. EBITA was SEK195m (15% above consensus), corresponding to an EBITA margin of 5.4%, while the adj. EBITA margin was 7.2%. FCF was strong, driven by a working capital release, as is normal at the end of the year. We have cut our 2025e EBITA by 5%, but raised our 2026e by 2%. We have lowered our target price to SEK48 (50), but reiterate our BUY.

On the road to recovery

Better than feared, relief warranted

Instalco (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Minor model update

We have made minor opex adjustments to reflect the updated environment following the press release in December. We do not consider these changes material and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our SEK50 target price.

Serial acquirers: M&A the main excitement

Cash flow to improve, tough market remains

SE plumbing market has seemingly troughed

Takes actions, clarifies Northvolt exposure

Instalco (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - A solid foundation for long-term value ...

We expect Q4 organic growth to be down by 2% YOY, but a return to positive territory in Q1 2025, driven by lower interest rates and higher activity. We have reduced our 2025e EBITA by 9% and marginally reduced 2026e. Following a change of analyst, we reiterate our BUY on the attractive risk/reward, but have lowered our target price to SEK50 (55).

Ich bin ein Installer

Serial acq Q3 recap: Quality shines also in darker times

Tough times won't last forever

Clear earnings miss, adds to uncertainty into 2025

Serial acquirers: Expectations up, slower cycle

Focus on margin until market improves

Intense competition still in focus into H2'24

5% adj. EBITA miss on lower Swedish margins, '24e-'26e adj. EBITA down 5-0%; 5% CAGR '23-'26e, keep HOLD, TP SEK 52 (47)

5% adj. EBITA miss on lower SE margins

Serial acquirers: M&A in the driver's seat

M&A upside, organic rebound H2'24 and margin resilience. '24e-'26e EBITA/EPS roughly unchanged, '24 likely a slower year. Reinvestment & ROIC motivate 23x EBITA, ADDT/LAGR up to BUY.

Challenging market remains a concern

Q2 report due Thursday, 22 August, '24e-'26e adj. EBITA down 1-0%; 5% CAGR '23-'26e, keep HOLD, TP SEK 47 (40).