Debt concerns are exaggerated

Instalco (Buy, TP: SEK45.00) - Looking forward

Q1 earnings disappointed, but sales grew 0.3% YOY (ending 5% above consensus), including 0.2% organic, marking the first positive figure since autumn 2023. EBITA was SEK123m (12% below consensus), corresponding to a margin of 3.7%, while the adj. EBITA margin was 5.7%. Cash from operating activities was good, driven by a working capital release. We have cut our 2025e EBITA by 7% and 2026e by 4%, and lowered our target price to SEK45 (46), but reiterate our BUY.

6% adj. EBITA miss, but better growth and SE margins

SE plumbing market has returned to growth

Serial acquirers: To prove their worth (again)

Improving activity supports H2 recovery

Positive Swedish market outlook (+3-4%)

Instalco (Buy, TP: SEK46.00) - Trough to Triumph

Following efforts to strengthen its long-term competitiveness in Q4, we expect a 4% YOY decline in organic growth in Q1 – but then a gradual recovery through 2025, led by a cautiously improving installation market, as highlighted in the Q4 CEO statements. We have cut our 2025e and 2026e EBITA by 3% respectively and thus lowered our target price to SEK46 (48), but with still-healthy upside potential, we reiterate our BUY.

Instalco (Buy, TP: SEK48.00) - Soft as expected, but signs of upturn

Sales in Q4 fell 7% YOY (vs consensus -4%), of which organic growth was 7%. EBITA was SEK195m (15% above consensus), corresponding to an EBITA margin of 5.4%, while the adj. EBITA margin was 7.2%. FCF was strong, driven by a working capital release, as is normal at the end of the year. We have cut our 2025e EBITA by 5%, but raised our 2026e by 2%. We have lowered our target price to SEK48 (50), but reiterate our BUY.

On the road to recovery

Better than feared, relief warranted

Instalco (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Minor model update

We have made minor opex adjustments to reflect the updated environment following the press release in December. We do not consider these changes material and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our SEK50 target price.

Serial acquirers: M&A the main excitement

Cash flow to improve, tough market remains

SE plumbing market has seemingly troughed

Takes actions, clarifies Northvolt exposure

Instalco (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - A solid foundation for long-term value ...

We expect Q4 organic growth to be down by 2% YOY, but a return to positive territory in Q1 2025, driven by lower interest rates and higher activity. We have reduced our 2025e EBITA by 9% and marginally reduced 2026e. Following a change of analyst, we reiterate our BUY on the attractive risk/reward, but have lowered our target price to SEK50 (55).

Ich bin ein Installer

Serial acq Q3 recap: Quality shines also in darker times

Tough times won't last forever