reports
XXL ASA: 3 directors
Three Directors at XXL ASA sold 40,572,464 shares at 10.000NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 89/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (Hold, TP: NOK11.00) - Encouraging LFL growth
The Q1 results were below expectations, but we find the positive LFL growth encouraging amid challenging winter conditions and years of consecutive negative LFL growth. We have reinstated our recommendation at HOLD (NO REC) and target price at NOK11 (N/A), as the earnings trend remains subdued and near-term multiples and financial risk are high. However, this is partly offset by Frasers' NOK10 per share bid for the company.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Q1 below, but back to growth
We consider this a slightly negative report for XXL, including figures below expectations despite revenue growth in a quarter with challenging winter conditions. We expect consensus 2025e EBITDA to come down 3–5% and find a slight negative share price reaction warranted.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Some early signs of recovery
XXL reported weak figures as pre-warned, but with signs of light as revenues and gross margins appear to have started to recover from low levels, supported by its strategic initiatives. We continue to find the balance sheet soft, but the NOK600m rights issue targeted for March should ease the situation somewhat.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Q4 trading update and fully underwritten r...
XXL announced yesterday after close that its main shareholders have agreed on a fully underwritten rights issue and that the alternative rights issue will not be implemented. The company also provided a Q4 trading update, which implies a gross profit cNOK11m–31m below our estimate due to a lower gross margin.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Frasers bids for XXL
Frasers Group has announced it intends to launch a voluntary offer for all the shares in XXL at NOK10 per share. If all offer conditions are met, the transaction is expected to close in Q1 2025, and Frasers will also consign up to NOK500m of stock to XXL.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (Hold, TP: NOK0.75) - Q2 disappoints
While there are early signs of a market recovery, this was not apparent in XXL’s Q2 results, which were significantly below expectations, driven by lower sales, reduced gross margins, and higher costs. XXL is making progress on its strategic initiatives, but it needs to return to sales growth to see the full impact. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK0.75 target price.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (Hold, TP: NOK0.75) - Doubling down on private label
We are positive ahead of the Q2 results (due at 07:00 CET on 12 July), expecting EBITDA 23% above consensus. While we see early signs of increased retail spending, we believe XXL needs to prove it can deliver on its strategic initiatives to fully benefit from a potential market recovery. We reinstate our recommendation with a HOLD and NOK0.75 target price.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Closing in on partnership with Frasers Gro...
XXL announced this morning that it is close to agreeing a strategic partnership with Frasers Group. We believe the announcement is positive as it accelerates XXL’s ambition to double down on its private-label share, which is key to improving gross margins and profitability. We believe the agreement is likely to trigger market speculation that Frasers Group is one step closer to a full acquisition of XXL, although in such a scenario it could have made more sense for Frasers Group to wait.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Weak Q1, but better than forecast
XXL reported weak Q1 results, albeit slightly better than expected, as it continues to underperform in a challenging market. On a positive note, the company continues to make progress on its strategic initiatives and has improved its financial position following the private placement. We have cut our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 21–13% on slightly revised revenue and margin assumptions.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Soft Q1 in line with pre-warning
We consider this a slightly positive report for XXL, including weak figures in line with pre-warned levels, but slightly above our forecasts and consensus, and with no change to the outlook. We expect c5–10% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBITDA and believe a slight positive share price reaction is warranted.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL (Hold, TP: NOK0.80) - Running out of runway
The Q4 results were below expectations and the outlook for Q1 was soft. While management looks to be making good progress in its turnaround plan, the runway might prove too short, increasing the risk that additional funding is needed. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to NOK0.8 (1.2), reflecting negative estimate revisions and increased funding risk.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL (Buy, TP: NOK1.20) - Turnaround in progress
We expect weak Q4 results, reflecting still-low demand for sporting goods and high campaign activity. However, we believe XXL is well placed for a market recovery, given its leading position and promising transformation plan. We reiterate our BUY and NOK1.2 target price.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL (Buy, TP: NOK1.30) - Q3 below, cost-cut guidance hiked
We consider this a weak report, with figures below expectations. However, on the positive side XXL has hiked its ambitions for cost cuts by cNOK100m. We expect consensus 2023 EBITDA to come down by cNOK100m. We believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL (Buy, TP: NOK1.30) - Plotting course for a turnaround
We expect weak Q3 results, reflecting lacklustre demand for sporting goods and high campaign activity. While the market outlook remains subdued, in our view, XXL should be in pole position for a recovery, given its leading market position, strategic actions to restore profitability and a strengthened balance sheet. We reinstate a recommendation with a BUY and a NOK1.3 target price.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Taking action
As pre-warned, XXL reported weak Q2 results, reflecting a challenging market. Although the timing of a market recovery remains unclear, the revised covenant structure and underwritten share issue offer XXL time to execute on its new strategy. Reflecting our role in the announced rights issue, we have withdrawn our recommendation and target price.
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