Serving up warm beer for Q3

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 10/15/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 15/10/2025

Carlsberg : A beer with a twist - Coverage initiated at Outperform and...

We initiate coverage on Carlsberg with an Outperform recommendation and a DKK 985 TP, valuing the brewer at 12-month EV/EBITDA of 10.7x, EV/EBIT of 14.7x, and P/E of 15.8x. All three European listed brewers in our coverage universe have an attractive valuation. However, we prefer Carlsberg because of its geographical exposure – with a focus on less volatile Europe and Asia – and because of its 30% soft drink exposure, which we conclude is synergistic to beer, adds to growth, and is less debated ...

Buzzwords don't ignite - execution does

Thoughts ahead of the CMD

Carlsberg AS: 1 director

A director at Carlsberg AS bought 250 shares at 775.000DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS bought 2,350 shares at 349.044DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 61/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Asia needs to get back on tap

Softer H1 headline figures but ups guidance

Still some head on the beer

Heineken N.V. - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances

Summary Marketline's Heineken N.V. Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Heineken N.V. - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments reports...

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK950.00) - Dapiglutide likely next catalyst

Q1 revenue missed expectations on lower reimbursement revenue, while operating profit was a beat, as opex was below our forecast and consensus. The 2025 guidance was maintained for opex of DKK2,000m–2,500m. We believe the next potential share-price catalyst is the top-line results from the phase Ib dapiglutide trial in Q2e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK950 (1,000).

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Accelerated Wegovy roll-out ahead

Q1 LCY figures beat our forecasts, while the 2025 guidance was cut to 13–21% LCY sales growth YOY and 16–24% LCY operating profit growth YOY due to weaker GLP-1 sales. We have lowered our rebate for US Ozempic but maintain our 52% Wegovy rebate (in line with the Q1 rebate when adjusting for de-stocking). We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Underlying soft GLP-1 sales

We forecast a soft Q1, with 17.3% LCY sales growth and 13.8% LCY operating profit growth due to subdued prescriptions. While we estimate Ozempic sales c0.5% below consensus, we are c1.2% above for Wegovy, as we include DKK1bn in sales related to Wegovy US inventories. We see likely relief from potential unchanged 2025 LCY guidance, supported by improved Wegovy supply and fading pressure from compounders. We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Focus on pipeline progression

We expect an uneventful Q1 report, with investor focus on top-line results from the dapiglutide phase Ib obesity trial (due in Q2), which could help provide clarity on the positioning of the molecule in obesity and inflammation. For petrelintide, we have reduced our peak sales forecast to cUSD10.0bn (cUSD10.8bn) on increased competition from GUBamy. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,150).

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1075.00) - Soft Q1, but with bright spots

We consider the Q1 results slightly on the soft side (with organic volume misses across the board), albeit less so adjusted for the loss of the San Miguel contract. Despite the general weakness, there were a couple of bright spots, including positive commentary on the premium beer market in China. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,075 target price.

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1075.00) - Expect flat start to 2025e

We expect Carlsberg to report a slow start to the year, mainly related to the loss of the San Miguel contract and the timing of Easter. However, we believe this should not come as a surprise, and thus expect the 2025 guidance to be maintained. At a 12-month forward P/E of c14x, we still find the stock attractive, with further upside potential from better-than-expected execution of Britvic and any improvement in China. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,075 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1

We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Deal delivery

We are positive on the partnership with Roche for petrelintide and view the financial terms as favourable for Zealand Pharma. While we had included Roche as the partner for petrelintide in our base case, the deal terms are better than we assumed. Thus, we have updated our valuation for petrelintide to DKK731 NPV/share. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,150 (1,010), based on our SOTP NPV.