Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Underlying soft GLP-1 sales

We forecast a soft Q1, with 17.3% LCY sales growth and 13.8% LCY operating profit growth due to subdued prescriptions. While we estimate Ozempic sales c0.5% below consensus, we are c1.2% above for Wegovy, as we include DKK1bn in sales related to Wegovy US inventories. We see likely relief from potential unchanged 2025 LCY guidance, supported by improved Wegovy supply and fading pressure from compounders. We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Focus on pipeline progression

We expect an uneventful Q1 report, with investor focus on top-line results from the dapiglutide phase Ib obesity trial (due in Q2), which could help provide clarity on the positioning of the molecule in obesity and inflammation. For petrelintide, we have reduced our peak sales forecast to cUSD10.0bn (cUSD10.8bn) on increased competition from GUBamy. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,150).

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1075.00) - Soft Q1, but with bright spots

We consider the Q1 results slightly on the soft side (with organic volume misses across the board), albeit less so adjusted for the loss of the San Miguel contract. Despite the general weakness, there were a couple of bright spots, including positive commentary on the premium beer market in China. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,075 target price.

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1075.00) - Expect flat start to 2025e

We expect Carlsberg to report a slow start to the year, mainly related to the loss of the San Miguel contract and the timing of Easter. However, we believe this should not come as a surprise, and thus expect the 2025 guidance to be maintained. At a 12-month forward P/E of c14x, we still find the stock attractive, with further upside potential from better-than-expected execution of Britvic and any improvement in China. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,075 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1

We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Deal delivery

We are positive on the partnership with Roche for petrelintide and view the financial terms as favourable for Zealand Pharma. While we had included Roche as the partner for petrelintide in our base case, the deal terms are better than we assumed. Thus, we have updated our valuation for petrelintide to DKK731 NPV/share. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,150 (1,010), based on our SOTP NPV.

Carlsberg AS: 1 director

A director at Carlsberg AS bought 1,000 shares at 861.600DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 61/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Poised for big news

Q4 revenue was DKK9.1m, driven by the Zegalogue licence and development agreement with Novo Nordisk, and EBIT was DKK-399.3m (we forecast DKK-370.1m, consensus DKK-367.6m). The 2025 opex guidance was for DKK2,000m–2,500m, reflecting pipeline progression investments. We expect strong pipeline news flow in H1, including dapiglutide headline results and potentially a petrelintide partnership. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,010 target price.

Refinancing of bank debt a minor positive

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Focus on partnership discussion...

We expect an uneventful Q4 report, but with investor focus on the ongoing petrelintide partnership discussions. Our base case derives DKK593/share for petrelintide, assuming a profit-sharing agreement in H1. We believe recruitment for the petrelintide phase II trial will be completed in H1 (headline results in Q1 2026e) and look for 2025 opex guidance of DKK1,750m–1,850m. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,010 target price.

Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold after exercising options/sold 40,000 shares at 620.260DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors...

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1075.00) - Strong H2 and the guidance a relief

Carlsberg had a stronger end-2024 than expected despite headwinds, with the 2025 guidance of 1–5% organic EBIT growth overall in line with expectations, if not a bit better than some had feared, considering the loss of San Miguel and China weakness. We continue to find the stock attractive, with concerns over Britvic execution, leverage and China more than priced in, in our view. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,075 target price.

Suggests good start to a transition year

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Credibility rebuilding

We attended a management roundtable discussion in London today. Highlights included focus on the obesity portfolio with the CagriSema results and launch delay, Amycretin, and early-stage candidates. Management remains confident in its ability to scale beyond 2025, aided by the acquisition of Catalent and the resolution of Wegovy and Ozempic supply issues by 2026. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,040 target price.

Guidance assumptions in focus

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Turning point achieved

The company met its full-year guidance, with c26% LCY sales and operating profit growth in Q4. We believe the 2025 guidance for 16–24% LCY sales growth and 19–27% operating profit growth indicates strong operating leverage. At tomorrow’s ‘Meet the Management’ event, we expect GLP-1 supply to be the key focus. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,040 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Wegovy sales hinge on supply

Based on realised US prescriptions, we forecast LCY to be below the 2024 guidance midpoint. Our Q4e sales for Wegovy and Ozempic are below consensus, likely due to a lack of script data among contributors, inventory fluctuations, or different rebate assumptions. We expect 2025 LCY guidance for 15–23% sales growth and 16–24% operating profit growth. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,040 target price.

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1075.00) - Risk/reward remains favourable

We expect Carlsberg’s Q4/H2 results to be broadly in line, while it is likely to issue a conservative 2025 guidance for low-single-digit EBIT growth. We continue to find the stock attractively valued, with concerns over Britvic execution, leverage and China more than priced in, in our view. At a c12x 12-month forward P/E, we believe it would not take much for the share price to revalue, helped by a likely improving narrative during 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK...

Likely to guide for 'low-single-digit' EBIT growth

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Disappointing CagriSema data

In REDEFINE-1, CagriSema reached a 22.7% product estimand weight loss, shy of expectations. We expect a launch in 2026, but have lowered our estimate of its sales potential. In our view, the flexible protocol affected efficacy, prompting Novo Nordisk to initiate a new phase III trial in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK1,040 (1,150).