Transactions, CMD and halted DPS

This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.

Carlsberg AS: 1 director

A director at Carlsberg AS bought 4,000 shares at 717.743DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 88/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Germany leads Q3 sales miss

Q3 sales were roughly half the level we expected – admittedly from a small base, but still a concern for us, since the miss was led by Germany, with much slower growth than recently. However, operating expenses were also less than we forecast, leaving an operating loss of SEK61m, a fraction better than our cSEK-63m. End-Q3 cash was SEK250m, which the company said would see it to positive cash flow in 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (4.5) on increased uncertain...

TMT hybrid yields trended lower/Move up in quality

In this report we evaluate spreads in the TMT hybrids space. Over the year, TMT hybrid notes have performed well. However, we now think the tightening potential over senior notes is more limited. One can move up in quality (or lower duration) without giving up much additional spread.

Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market

This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Q3 report: weak Germany weighs on sales

September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - October traffic statistics

We consider this a positive report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including a yield above our expectation for Norwegian Air, higher revenues for Widerøe and positive outlook comments. We expect 5% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBIT and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Nov: 4% better sales on higher yield/load

Group sales 4% better driven by NAS on higher load and yield. Strong booking momentum for Winter and Christmas. Estm unchanged, stock up ~2%

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Impressions from local investor meeting

Two upgrades, an equity raise, and transactions

This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - October traffic statistics...

Norwegian Air Shuttle is set to report October traffic statistics at 08:00 CET on 6 November. We are positive ahead of the report, forecasting a modest increase in yields and 9% ASK growth. We reiterate our BUY and NOK14 target price as we continue to believe the future is brighter than is discounted in the share price, with the stock trading at a 2024–2025e P/E of c7x.

Handling the hybrid bond is key

Looking to reach the upper end of guidance

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1160.00) - Top-end of guidance most likely

Overall, the Q3 results fell slightly shy of consensus, driven by China and Western Europe, but were not much of a surprise given competitor reports and yesterday’s release from its Chinese subsidiary. Encouragingly, despite the soft Q3, management stated that it expects to achieve the high end of its maintained 2024 guidance. We still find the stock attractively valued, especially considering the proposed Britvic acquisition, and we reiterate our BUY and DKK1,160 target price.

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1160.00) - 2024 guidance maintained

Overall, the Q3 results fell slightly shy of consensus, driven by China and Western Europe, but were not much of a surprise given competitor reports and yesterday’s release from its Chinese subsidiary. Encouragingly, despite the soft Q3, management stated that it expects to achieve the high end of its maintained 2024 guidance. We still find the stock attractively valued, especially considering the proposed Britvic acquisition, and we reiterate our BUY and DKK1,160 target price.

Asia weaker. Guidance maintained