Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR12.00) - Reassuring Q1

After a series of negative earnings surprises, the Q1 results exceeded our expectations, mainly on progress in the key Consumer Packaging division. In addition, we found it reassuring that management reiterated that the forestry asset sale is ongoing, with completion expected before end-H1. We have made limited forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and EUR12 target price.

Signs of sector recovery, and more Q1 results

The markets were much quieter following the Easter break, with limited news; however, the names we cover saw their shares up 2.6% on average, with Atrium Ljungberg (7.1%), SBB (7.1%) and Pandox (4.8%) the top performers. JM released its Q1 results and we reiterated our BUY, believing it has passed the earnings trough, while we reiterated our HOLDs on Corem and Fabege following their quarterly reports. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.04% for 2025e and 5.34%...

All chips on Oulu II

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK39.00) - On track towards full-year targets

Telia reported a solid Q1, with 1.8% service revenue growth YOY, 6.7% EBITDA growth, and SEK1.7bn in FCF. The performance strengthens our view that Telia can reach its full-year targets. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK39 (38.5).

Q1 above on lower ramp-up cost, more in Q2

Telia Company AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at Telia Company AB bought 36,000 shares at between 35.430SEK and 35.750SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over t...

Good Q1, but heading for deceleration

Telia (Neutral, TP: SEK 37, +5%) Q1 25: Impressive EBITDA acceleratio...

Telia has reported a good set of results, with SR, EBITDA, capex and all-in FCF all better than consensus expectations. The company sounded a note of caution on the call that Q1 Group trends were better than we should expect for the full year; having EBITDA and FCF in the bag already is a good thing, but full year guidance has been reiterated not raised.

Small adj. EBITDA beat, unchanged guidance

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1075.00) - Expect flat start to 2025e

We expect Carlsberg to report a slow start to the year, mainly related to the loss of the San Miguel contract and the timing of Easter. However, we believe this should not come as a surprise, and thus expect the 2025 guidance to be maintained. At a 12-month forward P/E of c14x, we still find the stock attractive, with further upside potential from better-than-expected execution of Britvic and any improvement in China. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,075 target price.

Heads-up for report 24 April

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR12.00) - Headwinds versus intrinsic values

Reflecting escalating general macro uncertainty leading to softer prices for most of Stora Enso’s industries and FX headwinds (weaker USD and stronger SEK), we have reduced our 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA by 6% per year. Despite this, we still find the valuation discount too high, especially since we believe Stora Enso’s explicit plan of selling 12% of its Swedish forestland could be a potential positive catalyst. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to EUR12 (13).

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.50) - Cost reductions visible in Q1e

Telia’s Q1 report is due at 07:00 CET on 24 April. Due to a changed reporting structure, there is no meaningful consensus. However, we believe our forecast will be about in-line with an updated consensus. We see an acceleration of EBITDA growth to >5% following a personnel reduction. We reiterate our BUY and raise the target price to SEK38.50 (38).

Revised estimates due to divisional split

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Q1 reporting begins, volatility persists, CEO to leave and ‘special ex...

The ‘tariff volatility’ in credit and equity markets persisted this week, reversing many of the gains from previous weeks. Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. Öresund’s representative left the board of Stenhus and appointed a special examiner to review the company’s management. Castellum’s CEO Joacim Sjöberg stated he plans to leave by Q4 2026. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.33% for 2025e and 5.66% for 2026e.

Real estate: Somewhere to hide/Spreads show resilience amid the sell-o...

Real estate spreads have been affected by the recent market turmoil but have performed better than those of other sectors with only mild widening. Similarly, in equity markets, real estate has not sold off as much as the broader market. The sector faces lower direct impacts from tariffs and is somewhat insulated in a recession. Companies with higher exposure to development or the US are more affected, but the impacts are manageable. We believe real estate bonds could remain a good option if cred...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Sector recovery on tariff introduction

While still down YTD, the Nordic real estate sector did see a recovery this week on falling interest rates as a result of US tariffs being imposed. Furthermore, we upgraded JM to BUY (HOLD) and published several Q1 previews in the construction sector. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.06% for 2025e and 5.37% for 2026e.