The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Kinnevik seeks a buyback mandate and proposes two new board members ahead of its EGM; 2) we met VEF’s and Creditas’ CEOs in Stockholm; and 3) Flerie is set to present at our Healthcare Conference in Oslo next week.

CMD next week

Carlsberg AS: 1 director

A director at Carlsberg AS bought 4,000 shares at 717.743DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 88/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Targets in reach, but tissue looks tough

Storm models approved by NFSA

Release NOK 1.3bn of capital requirements, and its NOK 900m Tier 2 issue.up the proforma solvency ratio to ~185% as of 30 Sept 2024 (from 164%). Could up consensus dividend expectations for both 2024e-25e, positive.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Bure reported Q3 results, outperforming the SIXRX by more than 5%-points; 2) VEF’s largest holding, Creditas, reported Q3 numbers, with origination improving 17% QOQ ahead of a profitable growth reacceleration and potential listing; 3) Apotea (10% of Creades’ unlisted assets) announced its intention to go public before year-end; and 4) Kinnevik’s chair is set to step down in 2025.

Rana Gruber (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Magnetite set for growth

Rana Gruber reported adjusted Q3 EPS of NOK2.4, in line with our estimate (no consensus), while EBITDA of NOK125m beat our forecast of NOK103m, due to a better-than-expected magnetite price. The company maintained its payout ratio of 60%, leading to a DPS of NOK1.5, below our NOK1.7 estimate. We reiterate our BUY and NOK90 target price.

The Capital Goods Data Miner – November 2024

Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Meeting new CEO - margin priority

Essity Aktiebolag (publ): 1 director

A director at Essity Aktiebolag (publ) bought 700,000 shares at 294.783SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 77/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Latour reported c9% NAV growth QOQ in Q3, outperforming the SIXRX, while the premium to our NAV is now only 2%; 2) Aker raised its dividend payout policy to 4–6% of NAV, giving it the sector’s highest dividend yield; and 3) Bure is due to report its Q3 results tomorrow, 8 November.

September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Q3 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Impressions from local investor meeting

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) VNV Global wrote down its unlisted portfolio by 3% QOQ in its Q3 report, as its Gett sale remains under regulatory review; 2) starting in this issue, we include Spiltan Invest in our sector overview (SEK9.2bn NAV with the key asset being Paradox Interactive); and 3) Latour is set to report Q3 results next week.

Looking to reach the upper end of guidance

Rana Gruber (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Dividends still set to be solid

Rana Gruber (RANA NO, Buy) - Dividends still set to be solid (18 pages)

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1160.00) - Top-end of guidance most likely

Overall, the Q3 results fell slightly shy of consensus, driven by China and Western Europe, but were not much of a surprise given competitor reports and yesterday’s release from its Chinese subsidiary. Encouragingly, despite the soft Q3, management stated that it expects to achieve the high end of its maintained 2024 guidance. We still find the stock attractively valued, especially considering the proposed Britvic acquisition, and we reiterate our BUY and DKK1,160 target price.

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1160.00) - 2024 guidance maintained

Overall, the Q3 results fell slightly shy of consensus, driven by China and Western Europe, but were not much of a surprise given competitor reports and yesterday’s release from its Chinese subsidiary. Encouragingly, despite the soft Q3, management stated that it expects to achieve the high end of its maintained 2024 guidance. We still find the stock attractively valued, especially considering the proposed Britvic acquisition, and we reiterate our BUY and DKK1,160 target price.