Essity Aktiebolag (publ): 1 director

A director at Essity Aktiebolag (publ) bought 1,000,000 shares at 273.653SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last tw...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor bought shares in EQT for the first time since its 2019 IPO; 2) ahead of Kinnevik’s 12 May AGM, we highlight the return of Cristina Stenbeck as chair and the potential for share buybacks at a 40% discount to NAV; and 3) Lundbergs bought shares in its existing holdings for SEK512m.

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we lowered our target price for Latour to SEK300 (340) following a Q1 report with a slight NAV decline but strong organic order intake growth; 2) Investor bought 6.3m Ericsson shares, and we highlight its successful top-ups in the name; 3) insider purchases at Investor are in our view a signal to look beyond a relatively small discount to NAV; and 4) Flat Capital reported Q1 NAV down 1% QOQ.

Huge improvements priced in

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1075.00) - Soft Q1, but with bright spots

We consider the Q1 results slightly on the soft side (with organic volume misses across the board), albeit less so adjusted for the loss of the San Miguel contract. Despite the general weakness, there were a couple of bright spots, including positive commentary on the premium beer market in China. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,075 target price.

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK55.00) - Q1 shipments delayed to Q2

Norsk Hydro’s Q1 results fell somewhat short of market expectations (EBITDA 4% below consensus) and it cut its Extrusions guidance. A large share of the miss appears to reflect late shipments in the bauxite and alumina (B&A) segment following heavy rainfall, which should mean higher volumes in Q2. We have made only minor changes (-1–0%) to our 2026–2027e EPS. We continue to see downside risk to aluminium prices, and reiterate our SELL and NOK55 target price.

Muted estimate changes

Gjensidige Forskring ASA: 1 director

A director at Gjensidige Forskring ASA bought 1,000 shares at 236.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

Gjensidige Forsikring (Hold, TP: NOK235.00) - Profitable growth ahead

On the back of repricing measures, mild winter weather, and a solid investment result, Gjensidige reported Q1 PTP of NOK1,719m, up ~60% YOY. Although we expect continued solid growth momentum on further price hikes of upwards of 19.5% in Private, the profitability focus is leading to some churn among Commercial clients. In sum, we have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by 1–2%, and reiterate our HOLD and NOK235 target price.

Weak deliveries and higher cost

Financials beat just outweigh UW miss

Adj. PTP -13%/-17% vs IR and ABGSCe (higher large losses). Even more repricing could make consensus estimates unchanged. Stock valuation high, hence stock down 1-4% from the UW miss

Heads-up for Q1 report 29 April

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we lowered our target price in Investor to SEK320 following a 9% write-down of Patricia Industries in its Q1 report; 2) we reduced our target price in Kinnevik to SEK100 to reflect macroeconomic headwinds, but remain positive ahead of Cristina Stenbeck’s return as chair; 3) we cut our VEF target price to SEK2.5 on FX movements and see re-rating potential from e.g. ongoing buybacks; and 4) we lowered our target price in Flerie to SEK57 given worsening funding ...

Waiting for a volume recovery

Metso (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Relatively good place to be

We reiterate our BUY and EUR11 target price, with only small estimate changes following the Q1 results (which brought stronger orders but softer earnings than we expected). Despite general uncertainties, we continue to view Metso’s end-market exposure, financials and valuation as attractive.

Orders, margin, cash compensate delivery gap

Heads-up for Q1 report, April 29

Clean EBITA -2% below, Q2 likely better

Clean EBITA SEK 4.7bn vs. cons SEK 4.87bn, -2% below. Margin 13.5% vs. cons' 13.5% (13.1% in Q4) — target is >15%

Q1 delivery shortfall but not fundamentally worrying