Yesterday, we published our sector lookahead for EU telecoms names for 2026. There is a lot of material in the report, but as part of the review, we upgraded Cellnex and Inwit to Buy for the first time since 2017 and 2023 respectively.
Inwit has reported a solid set of Q2 results and confirmed all guidance. The company continues to deliver robust revenue growth (+5% YoY in Q2), with demand for indoor DAS deployments offsetting slower core anchor tenancy revenue growth.
Inwit reported a solid set of Q1 results, with slowing macro tower growth offset by increasing demand for small cells/ DAS systems. In this quick note we run through the results and discuss valuation given concerns around MSA renegotiation risk.
This afternoon Swisscom said they will try to renegotiate the Inwit MSA, arguing that the fees are high relative to Inwit’s secondary tenants and international benchmarks. In this Quick Take we discuss whether that’s true, and whether Swisscom could plausibly threaten to exit the MSA.
Inwit has reported Q3 numbers slightly below consensus and updated 2024 guidance to the low-end of the revenue and RLFCF ranges. We expect attention to now move towards the Q4 results in March 2025, where we expect further shareholder returns to be announced.
Italian FWA operator OpNet (the successor of Linkem) has announced the sale of their operations and spectrum to WindTre, for a transaction EV of €485m. In this Quick Take we look at i) the implied 3.5GHz spectrum price, ii) implications for mobile spectrum share, and iii) the scale of potential tenancy losses at Inwit.
Following the recent sell-off in EU Towers, we take stock and ask whether the moves are justified by the changing interest rate environment. Given the ongoing volatility in rates, we make no changes to our Cellnex and Inwit valuations at this time and remain Neutral on both names.
We remain Neutral on Cellnex (€31 target) and Inwit (€11.8 target), but the sale by Cellnex of a 49% stake in its Nordic assets to Stonepeak at 24x is certainly an attractive datapoint, as we had been worried that activity in the private tower market in Europe had been slowing.
Last week, we saw MTN in Nigeria decide not to fully renew their all-or-nothing tower contract with IHS, but instead they decided to renew just 86% of the total. Given the investor weight that is often put on the sustainability of existing tower contracts, this is an important global precedent for tower companies, albeit we would stress each individual market situation is different.
This morning Vodafone reported that they had only sold a further €500m stake in their Vantage Towers holding company to a consortium of infrastructure investors, out of €1.8bn targeted. The stake is being sold at a 22x EBITDA valuation – below recent transaction benchmarks – implying that private tower valuations may be starting to cool.
Following takeover stories earlier this month (Betaville, 8 March), Reuters is now reporting that Ardian is considering a bid for Inwit (LINK). In this Quick Take we discuss why Ardian could be interested in Inwit, and why that story might now be in the public domain.
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