reports
- Ben Rickett
Inwit (Neutral, €11.7, +12%) 1Q25: Solid quarter supported by small ce...
Inwit reported a solid set of Q1 results, with slowing macro tower growth offset by increasing demand for small cells/ DAS systems. In this quick note we run through the results and discuss valuation given concerns around MSA renegotiation risk.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Ben Rickett
- Ben Rickett
Inwit (Neutral, €12.8, +32%) Could Swisscom renegotiate the Inwit MSA?
This afternoon Swisscom said they will try to renegotiate the Inwit MSA, arguing that the fees are high relative to Inwit’s secondary tenants and international benchmarks. In this Quick Take we discuss whether that’s true, and whether Swisscom could plausibly threaten to exit the MSA.
- Ben Rickett
Inwit (Neutral, €12.0, +18%) 3Q24: Slower quarter, but higher returns ...
Inwit has reported Q3 numbers slightly below consensus and updated 2024 guidance to the low-end of the revenue and RLFCF ranges. We expect attention to now move towards the Q4 results in March 2025, where we expect further shareholder returns to be announced.
- Ben Rickett
- Ben Rickett
- Ben Rickett
- Ben Rickett
OpNet transaction WindTre bolsters spectrum position; Inwit implicati...
Italian FWA operator OpNet (the successor of Linkem) has announced the sale of their operations and spectrum to WindTre, for a transaction EV of €485m. In this Quick Take we look at i) the implied 3.5GHz spectrum price, ii) implications for mobile spectrum share, and iii) the scale of potential tenancy losses at Inwit.
- Ben Rickett
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
EU Towers Review Part 2 CELLNEX/ INWIT - Trying to make sense of the s...
Following the recent sell-off in EU Towers, we take stock and ask whether the moves are justified by the changing interest rate environment. Given the ongoing volatility in rates, we make no changes to our Cellnex and Inwit valuations at this time and remain Neutral on both names.
- James Ratzer
EU Towers Review Cellnex - Stonepeak deal gives us an opportunity to ...
We remain Neutral on Cellnex (€31 target) and Inwit (€11.8 target), but the sale by Cellnex of a 49% stake in its Nordic assets to Stonepeak at 24x is certainly an attractive datapoint, as we had been worried that activity in the private tower market in Europe had been slowing.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
EUROPEAN TOWERS: All-or-nothing renewal curveball Cellnex (Neutral, €...
Last week, we saw MTN in Nigeria decide not to fully renew their all-or-nothing tower contract with IHS, but instead they decided to renew just 86% of the total. Given the investor weight that is often put on the sustainability of existing tower contracts, this is an important global precedent for tower companies, albeit we would stress each individual market situation is different.
- Ben Rickett
- Ben Rickett
EU Towers Are private tower valuations cooling? Downgrade Inwit to Ne...
This morning Vodafone reported that they had only sold a further €500m stake in their Vantage Towers holding company to a consortium of infrastructure investors, out of €1.8bn targeted. The stake is being sold at a 22x EBITDA valuation – below recent transaction benchmarks – implying that private tower valuations may be starting to cool.
- Ben Rickett
- Ben Rickett
Inwit (Buy, €12.2, +3%) Ardian considering bid for Inwit. Our take.
Following takeover stories earlier this month (Betaville, 8 March), Reuters is now reporting that Ardian is considering a bid for Inwit (LINK). In this Quick Take we discuss why Ardian could be interested in Inwit, and why that story might now be in the public domain.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
EU Towers Review Sector update yielding Inwit upgrade to Buy
After the weak performance in 2022, we have seen a very high level of investor interest in the tower names so far this year as a potential recovery play for 2023. A story that AMT/ Brookfield might be looking at Cellnex has increased interest further. Against this backdrop though, interest rates have been volatile, and taking into account lower debt spreads, we lower our cost of capital assumption and we upgrade Inwit to a Buy and upgrade our target to €12.2.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
New Street: EU Towers Update: Hard to hide from rising real rates Cell...
Tower names in Europe are sensitive to rises in real yields – and since we last updated our cost of capital assumptions for the tower names in April, real rates have increased by 200-250bp, so we reduce our fair value for the tower names by 25%, and pull Inwit back to Neutral.
- Ben Rickett
New Street: Inwit (Buy, €13.2, +33%) 2Q22: Guidance up; New ownership...
Inwit reported a solid set of Q2 results and lifted mid-term guidance on the back of higher 2022 inflation expectations. The new guidance is above our estimates (which already included the higher inflation), so would represent upside to our numbers if achieved.
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