reports
- James Ratzer
Telecom Italia (Neutral), Inwit (Buy): Now TIM serves notice - so what...
Telecom Italia has announced that it has also served notice to cancel the Inwit MSA – but in a different manner from Swisscom. In this brief note, we assess what the likely implications from this move are and what the end-game could look like.
- Ben Rickett
- Russell Waller
- James Ratzer
Inwit (Buy, €9.5, +52%) Previously: €11.8 Relationship status: It's c...
Inwit has issued new guidance reflecting the breakdown in the relationship with the two anchor tenants (TIM and Swisscom), implying a mid-teens cut to our cash flow forecasts. But the market thinks there’s more to come, with the current share price implying a substantial cut to MSA revenue at renewal (whether that be in 2028 or 2038).
- James Ratzer
Spectrum alert Why a decision in Malta is more relevant than you migh...
This is the first time we have written a note “directly” on Maltese telecoms. Eagle-eyed followers of our work will know we have touched on it before looking at fixed-mobile convergence when Vodafone used to be in the market – but that was pre-2020! So why are we writing on it now? Why is it relevant?
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, £1.30, +20%) Q3 26 – The pricing vs. volume dynamic in...
Market reaction to Vodafone’s Q3 might be dominated by the weaker German broadband net adds figure, but we think the pricing trends look more encouraging and we see these as a reasonable set of results with all guidance reiterated.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Cellnex (Buy, €34, +34%) Inwit (Buy, €11.8, +56%) Both upgraded to BU...
Yesterday, we published our sector lookahead for EU telecoms names for 2026. There is a lot of material in the report, but as part of the review, we upgraded Cellnex and Inwit to Buy for the first time since 2017 and 2023 respectively.
- James Ratzer
European Telecoms for 2026 Industry action required for further outpe...
Over the past 3 years, the EU telecoms sector has had a great run – up >50%, despite modest underlying revenue/ EBITDA growth. This has almost entirely come from a deserved upwards re-rating in the multiple as the risk profile across the sector diminishes – which has been a key theme of ours in the past few years given improved regulation. So, we feel this has now largely played out.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +26%) Safaricom buyout: More FCF accretive than ...
Vodafone and Vodacom have announced today that they will be taking control of Safaricom. Given the structure of the deal with Kenyan Government involving pre-paying dividends, we think the deal could offer better than expected accretion to Vodafone’s reported FCF for limited capital outflow.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +30%) H1 26 - Multiple re-rating in play
Vodafone has reported a decent set of H1 results and guidance has been moved to the upper-end of the guidance range (albeit us and consensus were already there). We think there is still a story for the multiple to be re-rated further – and even though there is new dividend guidance today, we also think there is potential for incremental cash return to come at the FY results.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Why you should be reading the Tariff Tracker – a leading SR indicator
We publish monthly front book pricing data in our Tariff Tracker product. In this report we show some new analysis looking at how front book tariffs are a good leading indicator for service revenue trends in mobile and fixed, including new work looking at discounted and undiscounted prices.
- Ben Rickett
Inwit (Neutral, €11, +7%) 2Q25: Solid quarter, supported by DAS demand
Inwit has reported a solid set of Q2 results and confirmed all guidance. The company continues to deliver robust revenue growth (+5% YoY in Q2), with demand for indoor DAS deployments offsetting slower core anchor tenancy revenue growth.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, £1.20, +40%) Q1 26: Clearer evidence of value over volu...
Vodafone’s Q1 results do show some signs of improving revenue growth in Germany with a more disciplined approach to pricing. We think Vodafone still looks very attractively priced at the moment, but we believe a longer-term outlook from management would help to underpin more confidence in the investment case.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU Telecoms: Half-time 2025 Review Sector has outperformed: More sele...
The European Telecoms continues to outperform: up 17% YTD vs. the market up 10%. While this is great to see, adding to the 12pp outperformance in 2024 and supporting our investment thesis of improving regulation, it does mean the equity upside story from here is becoming more selective.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
Vodafone to Virgin spectrum sale: More details revealed
As part of the Vodafone-Three merger (VOD3UK), the merging companies committed to sell a portfolio of spectrum to VMO2. The details of that spectrum portfolio have now been formally disclosed by Ofcom, which has published a notification listing the frequencies that are due to be transferred (LINK). In this note, we run through the final decisions and implications for potential UK revenue share.
- James Ratzer
The company started seeing signs of recovery as subscriber losses begu...
As we expected, the UK merger completed this morning, so we wanted to take this opportunity to highlight the note we put out on Saturday, in which we published our new model (including the UK merger, and assuming Vodafone buys out the Hutchinson minority in 3 years’ time). The terms of the deal are as initially announced. We believe the value creation is +9p per share, included within our 120p price target. We still see >50% upside from current levels.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +56%) Was 135p Target price/ model update: T...
We don't usually aim to publish price target updates over the weekend, so please do forgive us, but with today being May 31st and Vodafone's desire to close the UK merger during H1 and at a month-end, we would like to think that the UK deal closing could be very imminent - and maybe even today.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +82%) FY 2025: Trying to move the debate on from ...
The broad theme of Vodafone’s results remains the same as in past periods: Germany has been disappointing and has been the main focus of the market, but other parts of the business have been able to offset it, with increasing weight now on Vodacom for FY26.
- Ben Rickett
Inwit (Neutral, €11.7, +12%) 1Q25: Solid quarter supported by small ce...
Inwit reported a solid set of Q1 results, with slowing macro tower growth offset by increasing demand for small cells/ DAS systems. In this quick note we run through the results and discuss valuation given concerns around MSA renegotiation risk.
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