Sparebanken 1 SMN: 3 directors

Three Directors at Sparebanken 1 SMN bought 7,254 shares at between 181.260NOK and 182.310NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - Unit sales in line, EPS still tra...

Today’s Q1 trading update showed a unit sales recovery broadly in line with our forecast. However, while starts were above our forecast, our 2025e is unchanged at 700 units. Despite KPIs seemingly recovering as expected, we still see downside risk for the stock given the long lead time to profit and dividends and as the valuation looks high relative to peers. Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 21 May), we forecast marginally negative Q1 EPS on few deliveries. We reiterate our SELL and ...

Heder Bank to offer mortgages at 4.99%

Sales as expected, deliveries above

Outlook for continued high rates

Although we continue to expect some margin headwind, the outlook for postponed rate cuts – leaving interest rates at continued high levels – should bode well for sector earnings, further supported by a strong profitability focus and modest loan losses. With the sector trading at an average 2026e P/E of c11.0x, and solid dividend potential, we find the valuation undemanding. We reiterate our positive sector view but highlight a larger share of HOLD recommendations than 12 months ago.

A tenant bankruptcy, a lost rating, more newbuilds and new issues

This week, Castellum lost its seventh-largest tenant after Northvolt declared bankruptcy, Citycon’s IG rating was withdrawn, construction companies continue to start newbuilds (NCC in Finland), Corem announced a lease extension, and Kojamo and Sagax issued new bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.17–5.49% for 2025–2026e.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Deal delivery

We are positive on the partnership with Roche for petrelintide and view the financial terms as favourable for Zealand Pharma. While we had included Roche as the partner for petrelintide in our base case, the deal terms are better than we assumed. Thus, we have updated our valuation for petrelintide to DKK731 NPV/share. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,150 (1,010), based on our SOTP NPV.

Tough macro

Share prices for the names we cover are down by 7% week-on-week on average following the hike in market interest rates. In other news, February residential prices for Norway and Sweden were published, Skanska announced another large newbuild in Sweden, and Pandox acquired a EUR66m hotel in Cologne, Germany. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.12% for 2025e and 5.43% for 2026e.

Better markets and more Q4 results

Positive data points for January were Colliers’ market update showing Nordic commercial real estate transaction volumes were up 17% YOY, while Norwegian residential developer, Union, said house sales improved 52% YOY, although both were from very low bases. Citycon released Q4 results this week, and Skanska announced a new development. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.94% for 2025e and 5.24% for 2026e.

Last of the Q4s

Q4 reporting season wrapped up this week, with the last six of the names in the sector we cover releasing their results. In other news, the largest-ever hotel transaction in the Nordics was announced. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.85% for 2025e and 5.22% for 2026e.

Norwegian banks: Q4'24 outcome vs. expectations

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Poised for big news

Q4 revenue was DKK9.1m, driven by the Zegalogue licence and development agreement with Novo Nordisk, and EBIT was DKK-399.3m (we forecast DKK-370.1m, consensus DKK-367.6m). The 2025 opex guidance was for DKK2,000m–2,500m, reflecting pipeline progression investments. We expect strong pipeline news flow in H1, including dapiglutide headline results and potentially a petrelintide partnership. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,010 target price.

BN Bank ASA - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis

Summary BN Bank ASA - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights BN Bank ASA (BN Bank) is a provider of banking products and financial related services to retail and corporate customers. It is owned by SpareBank 1 SMN, SpareBank 1 NORD-NORGE, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, and Spa...

Disappointing DPS given CET1 headroom

Adj. PTP beat of 4%/7% vs. ABGSCe/cons, driven by costs; Positive P&L revisions driven by other costs; Valuation in line with fundamentals

Raising dividend expectations

Adj. PTP 5% below ABGSCe & consensus due to non-NII; Higher CET raises DPS expectations; Strong fundamentals reflected in decent valuation: HOLD

ROE >14% in 2027 seems unlikely

Tender offer and more Q4 results

After surpassing one-third of the votes in Entra this week, Castellum announced it would present a mandatory offer for all shares in the company. The Q4 reporting season has continued, with several names releasing results. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.61% for 2025e and 5.03% for 2026e.

Selvaag Bolig ASA: 5 directors

Five Directors at Selvaag Bolig ASA sold 294,695 shares at between 36.840NOK and 37.020NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over ...

SpareBank1 Nord-Norge (Hold, TP: NOK130.00) - Still-strong profitabili...

Helped by a NOK176m one-off gain, solid core revenues and modest loan losses, NONG reported a strong Q4 ROE of 18.9%. The board proposed a NOK8.75 2024 DPS, implying a ~54% payout ratio (>50% policy) and a 6.7% dividend yield. We have raised our 2026e EPS by ~2%, and our target price to NOK130 (123). That said, with the stock trading at a dividend-adjusted 2026e P/E of 10.0x, we still see a more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. Thus, we reiterate our HOLD.

SpareBank 1 Østlandet (Hold, TP: NOK158.00) - Solid post-merger quarte...

Helped by strong core revenues, ROE was 11.5% in Q4 (Totens Sparebank included from 1 November), despite somewhat elevated costs (partly driven by one-offs) and loan losses. Implying a ~60% payout ratio and a 6.3% dividend yield, the board proposed a 2024 DPS of NOK10.3. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~3%, and our target price to NOK158 (150). That said, at a dividend-adjusted 2026e P/E of 10.2x, we still find the valuation fair and reiterate our HOLD.