A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 9,000 shares at 915.500DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank: loan quality pressures ease, preference for the shorter end of the preferred senior curve. Sparebanken Vest issues after Norwegian covered outperformance. Sub-benchmark green senior preferred from Raiffeisen Bank Hungary
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank: loan quality pressures ease, preference for the shorter end of the preferred senior curve. Sparebanken Vest issues after Norwegian covered outperformance. Sub-benchmark green senior preferred from Raiffeisen Bank Hungary
Sweden’s Riksbank cut the policy rate this week to 3.75% (4.0%); our estimates are based on another four cuts by end-2025. During the week we upgraded Veidekke to BUY, downgraded Castellum to HOLD, and reiterated our HOLD on Kojamo and SELL on Hufvudstaden and Sagax. The average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.40% for 2024e and 4.79% for 2025e.
Fuelled by further NII expansion, the tax benefit of customer dividends, strong trading income and low loan losses, SPOL reported a Q1 ROE of 17.4% (>12% target), despite NOK26m of merger-related costs. We have made minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS and reiterate our NOK140 target price. However, after the recent share price appreciation, we find more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. Thus, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.2x, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY).
Helped by continued NII momentum and moderate loan losses, NONG reported a strong Q1 ROE of 17.8%, even with somewhat elevated cost inflation. Boosted by improved lending margins and decent lending growth, ‘real NII’ rose 1.7%, despite one less interest day and deposit margin pressure. While the CET1 ratio fell ~10bp QOQ, the bank has a solid ~120bp buffer to its 15.8% requirement, boding well for further generous dividend distributions. With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.7x, we continu...
Supported by further NII expansion, strong non-interest income and low loan losses, Q1 ROE was 16.0%, despite sustained cost pressure. Adjusted for the NOK59m positive one-off in Q4, ‘real NII’ rose another 7.3% QOQ, even with one fewer interest day. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1–2%, driven by higher NII, and our target price to NOK167 (161). With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.1x, we continue to find the valuation attractive and reiterate our BUY.
This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.
Q1 LCY figures beat consensus due to US rebate adjustments related to 2023 adding c5%-points to LCY growth and low SG&A cost boosting EBIT growth in Q1. Wegovy sales were below consensus but above our forecast, and we have therefore adjusted our rebate assumptions for 2024. The 2024 guidance was raised to LCY sales growth of 19–27% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–30% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
Due to better-than-expected volumes for the board and paper division and stronger than expected earnings for the forestry operations, Q1 earnings were above our forecast. Thanks to the unique business model with close to 50% backward integration in its own wood, Holmen has unique cost control and, as we also believe the business cycles for its industries are at cyclical troughs, we have turned less negative on the stock. Still, due to a rich valuation, we do not see meaningful upside potential a...
Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.
We are slightly below consensus on Q1e LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 21.4%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 19.5%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the Ozempic US prescription trend will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
Helped by dividends of NOK57m from the SB1 mortgage companies and moderate loan losses, SOON reported a Q1 ROE of 11.9% versus its >11% target. While still solid, ‘real NII’ fell marginally QOQ. With ~2.8%-points headroom to its capital requirement (including a 1% management buffer) at end-Q1, the bank has ample dividend capacity. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~2–3%, driven by lower NII. To remain in line with SRBNK’s agreed purchase price (0.48 SRBNK shares per SOON share + NOK4.3 DPS), we ...
With NII at still-high levels and moderate loan losses, MORG reported a Q1 ROE of ~13% (>12% target), despite elevated cost inflation. Even with solid lending growth, the CET1 ratio rose ~25bp QOQ, leaving ample 2.3%-points headroom to its 16.15% requirement (including P2G). We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~2–4%, driven by lower core revenues and higher costs, and in turn trimmed our target price to NOK92 (95). With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of 9.5x, we continue to find a more attractiv...
With NII remaining at high levels and modest loan losses, SRBNK reported a Q1 ROE of 14.6% versus its >13% target. Following strong lending growth of 2.3% QOQ, the CET1 ratio was flat QOQ, with the bank highlighting cNOK2.5bn synergy potential from the pending merger with SpareBank 1 Sørøst-Norge. We have made only minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS. With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.9x, we continue to find the valuation attractive. We reiterate our BUY and NOK158 target price.
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