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ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+7)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Stian Wibstad

Renewable Weekly – 28 Nov 2024

On aggregate, the R&C stocks underperformed (equal weight) the MSCI Nordic by ~4% throughout the reporting season (15 October to today).

ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+7)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Stian Wibstad

Renewable Weekly – 13 Sept 2024

On aggregate, the R&C stocks underperformed (equal weight) the MSCI Nordic by ~1% throughout the reporting season (10 July to today).

ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+8)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Olof Cederholm
  • Stian Wibstad

Renewable Weekly – 14 June 2024

This week, we look at the effect of AI/data centres on power demand.

ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+8)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Olof Cederholm
  • Stian Wibstad

Renewable Weekly – 6 June 2024

On aggregate, the R&C stocks outperperformed the MSCI Nordic by ~1% throughout the reporting season (16 Apr to 6 Jun).

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Hanna Forsgren

Ecoclime - New board onboard

Organic growth of 21% vs. ABGSCe 26% New official 15% adj. EBITDA margin target We lower our fair value range to SEK 8-14 (10-17)

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Hanna Forsgren

Ecoclime - Write-downs weigh earnings, decent growth

21% org growth (ABGSCe 26%), ~SEK 20m write-downs Q3 numbers imply 12-7% adj. EBITDA downgrades 9x ’23e EV/EBITDA on pre-Q3 estimates

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Hanna Forsgren

Ecoclime - Targets 15% EBITDA margin

15% EBITDA margin target and positive OCF Board disagreements now made clear Shouldn’t have a major impact on operations

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Hanna Forsgren

Ecoclime - Winner on district heating price hikes

’23e district heating prices raised by up to 20%... …boosting Evertherm ROI and shortening payback Q3 report due on Thursday, 10 November

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Martin Mauseth

Ecoclime - Evertherm growth comes at a cost

Lower margins on installations, product margins stable Near-term cost base re-assessed Fair value SEK 10-17 (11-18), 13x ’23e EV/EBITDA (adj.)

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Martin Mauseth

Ecoclime - Some growing pains seen in the cost base

Net sales SEK 57m, adj. EBITDA SEK -4.3m Q2 numbers imply 15-20% adj. EBITDA downgrades 9x ’23e EV/EBITDA (adj.) on pre-Q2 numbers

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Martin Mauseth

Ecoclime - Rate hikes a risk to Evertherm rollout

Q2 report due on Thursday 18 August Higher ’22e opex, building for long-term growth Evertherm fairly resilient, but not immune to rate hikes

Adrian Gilani
  • Adrian Gilani

Ecoclime - Promising signs for the Evertherm rollout

Solid growth, especially in Circular Energy Some necessary growing pains lead to higher opex 10x ‘23e EV/EBITDA (adj.), reiterate fair value SEK 12-20

Adrian Gilani
  • Adrian Gilani

Ecoclime - Strong growth, higher costs to grow the org

79% sales growth, of which 27% organic Adj. EBITDA SEK 2.0m (ABGSCe 7.8m) 14-9x ’22e-’23e EV/EBITDA (adj.) on pre-Q1 numbers

Adrian Gilani
  • Adrian Gilani

Ecoclime - Cutting costs with clean energy

Saving both energy and costs for property owners ’22e-’24e adj. EBITDA CAGR of 44%, SEK 75m by ’24e ABGSC fair value range of SEK 12-20 per share

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