Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1100.00) - Play it right in fencing

Despite intact 2025 EBITDA margin guidance, a soft Q1 and near-term uncertainties made us cut our 2025–2027e EPS by c10%. The step-up of focus on regulated markets supports the long-term case, although it comes with costs near-term. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK1,100 (1,440). We expect buybacks, expansion, new games, and growth improvements to strengthen the story later in 2025.

Big Q1 disappointment, but exaggerated reaction

Big sales miss, concerning growth numbers

Heads-up for report 30 April

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Solid entry points into quality

Following the solid Q1 report that was supported by the low-cost pulp operations in Uruguay, we have kept our optimistic 2025–2027e earnings, translating into highly attractive valuation multiples largely unchanged. With heavily reduced capex set for the coming years, we also still forecast strong cash flows, leaving the balance sheet overcapitalised. With this backdrop, we believe UPM will continue to pursue buybacks on top of compelling dividends in most feasible scenarios. We reiterate our BU...

Better realised pulp prices in Q1

Q1 EBIT +9%

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Buying opportunity on our data

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average players grew by 10% QOQ in Q1, compared with our quarterly average Live revenue growth of 3% for 2025e. While still early, Q2 has started very strongly, with 12% QOQ player growth so far. In conclusion, our data signals strong underlying demand for Evolution’s products and a vital recovery after the H2 headwinds.

Awaiting acceleration

Two negatives and one positive

Challenging road ahead

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - A step forward

With our unchanged estimates, the well-flagged near-term headwinds and strong player trends confirmed by our tracker, we reiterate our BUY and SEK1,440 target price ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:30 CET on 30 April). We forecast revenue up 8% YOY and EBITDA of EUR367m (Bloomberg consensus EUR369m). Short-term potential catalysts include the UKGC review conclusions and any signs of revenue growth resilience.

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Separating the wheat from the chaff

While acknowledging the overall high macro uncertainty, we still expect UPM to show continued earnings growth in 2025, in contrast to many other cyclical companies. Due to a more cautious view on pulp prices and FX, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 12–8%. Still, our earnings scenario remains highly attractive. We have also lowered our 2026–2027e capex as we believe the company will push growth investments into the future and instead prioritise share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY, but have c...

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

Stars and stripes

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Our data reinforces the growth story

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average player total has increased by a healthy 8% QOQ so far in Q1. March has surprised positively, with 9% MOM growth so far, and the ‘Speed Baccarat’ data bodes well for potential signs of resilience in the key Asia segment. After the challenges in H2 2024, the current trends reinforce Evolution’s Live growth story; we reiterate our BUY and SEK1,440 target price.

Norva24 (Hold, TP: SEK36.50) - SEK36.50/share cash offer

Apax Funds (through Nordahl BidCo AB) announced a recommended cash offer of SEK36.50/share for all outstanding shares in Norva24. As the principal shareholders (representing c57% of the outstanding shares) have undertaken to accept the offer and as we see a low likelihood of a competing bid, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and reduced our target price to SEK36.50 (37). We find the offer in line with our view of the company as a premium asset.

Stable February player data

January: Pulp shipments +6.2% y-o-y

Norva24 (Buy, TP: SEK37.00) - Still not firing on all cylinders

The Q4 results were mixed, with the German project business (to be discontinued) weighing on performance. We have tweaked our EPS forecasts post-Q4, and await Norva24’s CMD, where it will likely detail ambitious profitable growth targets for the coming strategy period. Demand in the fragmented European UIM service market remains strong, in our view supporting a financial model with the potential for a ‘buy-and-build’ sector roll-up. We reiterate our BUY and SEK37 target price.