Hexagon Purus (No_rec, TP: NOK) - In rough waters

Hexagon Purus’s weak Q1 results underpinned the stark market challenges for its hydrogen- and battery-related businesses. Seeing a liquidity runway into Q2 2026 at the current underlying cost base, we welcome the company’s aim of further cost cuts to preserve cash, and hope to see the results of the ongoing portfolio review soon. However, we still believe a restructuring of the company’s NOK2.1bn in convertible debt is needed. We have cut our 2025e EBITDA by 5% on the weaker-than-expected Q1 res...

Hexagon Purus (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Uncertain outcome for equity

While we consider cash-preservation measures the right move to counter the currently weak market, we do not believe these will be enough if the headwinds persist. The NOK2.1bn convertible debt (with ~8% PIK interest) is more than our valuation of the equity, and in our view structural measures are needed to recover any remaining value for shareholders. We consider a sale of non-core assets such as the US BVI business as well as restructuring of the convertible debt likely – and necessary. Given ...

Hexagon Purus (Sell, TP: NOK1.80) - Hurt by low demand visibility

While we welcome Hexagon Purus’ efforts to minimise cash burn with the announced cost cuts and business portfolio review, we see it being hurt by stark market headwinds. We believe other levers to preserve cash could be divestments of the US zero-emission businesses, where the cash burn is highest. We have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 20–13%, but highlight a broad scope of outcomes (also on the negative side). We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to NOK1.8 (2.9); we see it trading...

Hexagon Purus (Sell, TP: NOK2.90) - The worst could be yet to come

We consider Thursday’s profit warning on the negative side, but believe the worst could still be ahead. We believe the company will be hampered by an even more challenged US market for zero-emission vehicles, with President Trump aiming to relax emission standards, curb subsidies and introduce import tariffs. We have lowered our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 40–82% to reflect the higher risk, but believe there is a broad scope of potential outcomes. As a result, the company is likely to need fresh capita...

Hexagon Purus (Buy, TP: NOK7.50) - Awaiting US clarity

With the key numbers pre-announced, there was limited news in the Q3 report. A key focus on the conference call was increased uncertainty in the US after comments by Donald Trump about curbing funding for green energy and electric-/hydrogen-fuelled vehicles, relaxing transport emissions allowances, and introducing 25% import tariffs, all of which could affect the company negatively. We reiterate our BUY and NOK7.5 target price, with the stock still trading at a 21–30% discount to hydrogen equipm...

Hexagon Purus (Buy, TP: NOK7.50) - Still bumps in the road

We expect Q3 to be a non-event after key financials were pre-announced. With the much-awaited capital raise completed, focus should be on the company’s progress in its journey to profitability and positive cash flow generation. The guidance of becoming cash flow positive in 2026 could be feasible, but we see risks related to US clean transportation with the change in presidency. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK7.5 (10), reflecting a 15% risking to our fair value estimat...

Hexagon Purus (Buy, TP: NOK10.00) - Hit by market headwinds

We have lowered our 2025–2026e revenues by 26–22% to account for the cancelled contract with Daimler, as well as generally softer markets for heavy-duty trucks and hydrogen. After having traded at a discount to hydrogen equipment peers for a while, the company is now trading ~50% above on 2025–2026e EV/sales, hence we no longer see upside potential based on near-term peer group valuation, despite what we view as a strong long-term business case. Due to the latter, we reiterate our BUY, but have ...

Hexagon Purus (Hold, TP: NOK8.00) - Set for high Q2 cash outflow

We expect another quarter with increased activity QOQ and forecast EBITDA of NOK-103m, 1% above consensus. Q2 looks set for substantial cash outflow (we expect the cash position to halve versus Q1), driven by continued operating losses and working capital build, as well as various capital expenditures. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK8 (7). After performing better than hydrogen equipment peers, the stock is trading ~15% below on 2024–2026e EV/sales but ~6% above on ...

Hexagon Purus (Hold, TP: NOK7.00) - On track

The Q1 report came as a relief to the capital markets. With decent quarterly results, capacity expansion on track, and a still-supportive demand outlook, the industrial business case looks intact. That said, we note the still-high funding need. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK7 (6) on lower dilutive effects from assumed further capital raises after Friday’s share price rally. The stock continues to trade at an attractive 40–50% discount to other hydrogen equipment s...

Hexagon Purus (Hold, TP: NOK6.00) - Funding clarity wanted

With ongoing ramp-up at several of its factories, we expect activity in 2024e to be backend-loaded and forecast Q1 EBITDA of NOK-119m, 4% below consensus of NOK-115m. Although we like the company’s long-term business story, we continue to see a high funding requirement as well as funding uncertainty creating headwinds for the stock. We have cut our target price to NOK6 (11) on more dilutive funding and have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY).

Hexagon Purus (Buy, TP: NOK11.00) - Hit by delayed ramp-up and market ...

While we still view the long-term Hexagon Purus story as promising, we see delays to growth in 2024 (from a slower capacity ramp-up) and activity (from a sluggish hydrogen mobility market) that together with limited growth investments beyond 2025e has led us to lower our 2030 growth forecast. As a result, we have cut our target price to NOK11 (13), but reiterate our BUY. With a differentiated product offering that is more resilient to the soft green hydrogen market than its hydrogen equipment pe...

Hexagon Purus (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Capacity ramp-up taking longer

We see Hexagon Purus’s capacity expansion taking somewhat longer than expected due to delayed equipment deliveries, leaving us 19% below consensus on Q4 revenues and 9% below on EBITDA. We have also lowered our 2024e revenues by 15%, leaving us 12% below consensus. With 54% of consensus 2024 revenues being covered by the backlog and 3–9 months of lead time from awards to execution under the company’s long-term agreements, we see the potential for negative revisions. However, we reiterate our BUY...

Hexagon Purus (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Liquidity need likely approaching

Q3 EBITDA was 5% above consensus and 11% above our forecast, driven by strong margins. With the working capital build-up in Q3 likely to be sustained and significant remaining capex, we believe Hexagon Purus will need to approach equity markets in Q1 2024, but believe that this should be well understood in the capital markets. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK13 (19), reflecting a 20% discount to our fair value based on the peer group and fundamental valuation. Despite t...

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Hexagon Purus (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Improving operational leverage

Despite stronger Q2 results than expected, the reiterated 2023 EBITDA guidance implies H2 will be slightly softer than we expected; therefore we have not made any material changes to our 2023e EBITDA following the beat. With a solid backlog and improving operational leverage, we have raised our 2024e EBITDA by 12%, while we see earnings approaching break-even in 2025. We view the valuation as attractive, with the stock trading at a ~60% discount to hydrogen equipment peers on 2023–2026e EV/sales...

Hexagon Purus (Buy, TP: NOK29.00) - Capex phase intensifies

We forecast Q2 EBITDA of NOK-117m, 4% below consensus. With the capacity expansion programme underway, some remaining payments for Wystrach, payments to Panasonic due during the quarter, continued investments in Cryoshelter and a weak NOK, we expect an uptick in capex, and forecast a quarter-end net cash position of NOK1.0bn, 6% below consensus. The stock is trading at a discount of almost 60% to hydrogen equipment peers on 2023–2026e EV/sales, which we consider unwarranted. We reiterate our BUY...

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Hexagon Purus (Buy, TP: NOK29.00) - Preparing for higher activity

With solid backlog coverage, a capacity expansion programme progressing as planned, a strong balance sheet, and supplier agreements in place, we consider Hexagon Purus well positioned for a likely significant increase in activity. With limited changes to our estimates and a slightly higher peer group valuation, we reiterate our BUY and NOK29 target price. The stock is trading at a 45-50% discount to hydrogen equipment peers on 2023–2026e EV/sales – on our calculations the stock price would need ...

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