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Banco Comercial Portugues, S.A.: Update following rating action

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its improved capital assessment from weak levels, against its longer interest rates and high cost of living and its asset-quality improvement.

Damien Choplain ... (+3)
  • Damien Choplain
  • Martial Descoutures
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/05/2024

European equity markets weakened in October following multiple disappointments across the earnings season. The impending US election, the outcome of which is highly uncertain according to the polls, may also have prompted some traders to adopt a cautious stance. Sovereign long rates rose sharply, particularly in the US, on the back of macro indicators likely to provide arguments to the most hawkish of central bankers. All eyes are now on the November 5 elections and their repercussion...

Damien Choplain ... (+3)
  • Damien Choplain
  • Martial Descoutures
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 05/11/2024

Les marchés actions européens ont fléchi en octobre après les nombreuses déceptions sur la saison des résultats. L’approche de l’élection US, très incertaine selon les sondages, pourrait également avoir poussé à la prudence certains opérateurs. Les taux longs souverains ont nettement remonté, en particulier aux Etats-Unis, sur la base d’indicateurs macro susceptibles de donner des arguments aux plus faucons des banquiers centraux. Tous les yeux sont désormais rivés sur le scrutin du 5...

Benoit Valleaux ... (+2)
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould

Millennium BCP : The (robust) Q3 2024 results and medium-term strategi...

>Outperform rating maintained – target price raised to € 0.56 (vs € 0.48) - The Q3/9M 2024 results, and more importantly the medium-term strategic update, support our positive call on BCP against the backdrop of 1/ a significant recovery in operations/profitability; and 2/ a notable improvement in shareholder returns (thanks to increasingly comfortable solvency) in the short and medium term. Despite the share’s significant rerating (+64% YTD, +38pp vs sector), we stil...

Benoit Valleaux ... (+2)
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould

Millennium BCP : Le T3 2024 (solide) et l’update stratégique MT suggèr...

>Opinion Surperformance maintenue. OC porté à 0.56 € (vs 0.48 €) - Les résultats T3/9M 2024 et surtout l’update stratégique MT confortent notre call positif sur BCP sur fond 1/ de redressement significatif de l’opérationnel/rentabilité et 2/ d’amélioration notable du retour à l’actionnaire (grâce à une solvabilité de plus en plus confortable) à CMT. Malgré le rerating significatif du titre (+64% YTD, +38 pp vs secteur) nous identifions encore du potentiel de revaloris...

Banco Comercial Portugues: 1 director

A director at Banco Comercial Portugues bought 68,970 shares at 0.390EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

Klaus Breitenbach ... (+2)
  • Klaus Breitenbach
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 08/02/2024

The Stoxx 600 gained just 1.1% in July after shedding 1.3% in June, driven by the SMI (+2.5%) and the Footsie 100 (+2.7%). With business sentiment indicators continuing to weaken, defensive stocks outperformed cyclicals in July, and many healthcare stocks were among the best performers of the Stoxx 600. Long-term interest rates have fallen sharply (probably too much), but this has not benefited tech and luxury goods stocks, penalised by their disappointing results publications. - ...

Klaus Breitenbach ... (+2)
  • Klaus Breitenbach
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 02/08/2024

Le Stoxx 600 ne progresse que de 1,1% en juillet après sa baisse de 1,3% en juin, tiré par le SMI (+2,5%) et le Footsie 100 (+2,7%). Avec la poursuite du fléchissement des indicateurs de climat des affaires, les défensives ont surperformé les cycliques en juillet, et de nombreuses valeurs Santé sont présentes parmi les meilleures performances du Stoxx 600. Les taux d’intérêt longs ont nettement reflué (sans doute trop) sans que cela profite aux valeurs de la Tech ou du Luxe qui ont s...

Benoit Valleaux ... (+2)
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould

Millennium BCP : Q2 2024 confirms operating/balance sheet recovery

>Outperform rating confirmed. Target price raised to € 0.48 (vs € 0.47) - BCP’s Q2/H1 2024 results support our positive stance on the group, with confirmation of the prospect of a significant recovery in underlying operating momentum/profitability in the short to medium term and a substantial strengthening of its solvency (with the possibility of a sizeable improvement in shareholder returns as well). Despite the stock’s strong performance since April (+42% YTD, +20p ...

Benoit Valleaux ... (+2)
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould

Millennium BCP : Le T2 2024 confirme le redressement opérationnel/bila...

>Opinion Surperformance confortée. OC porté à 0.48 € (vs 0.47 €) - Les résultats T2/S1 2024 confortent notre call positif sur BCP avec la validation des perspectives de redressement significatif de l’opérationnel underlying/rentabilité à CMT et de renforcement notable de la solvabilité (avec en toile de fond l’idée d’une amélioration notable également du retour à l’actionnaire). Malgré la jolie performance boursière du titre depuis avril (+42% YTD, +20 pp vs secteur),...

Benoit Valleaux ... (+2)
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould

Millennium BCP : Solid Q1 2024 numbers support further significant re-...

>Outperform rating maintained – target price raised to € 0.47 (vs € 0.43) - BCP’s Q1 2024 results lend weight to our positive call on the bank, which is based on a significant recovery in its underlying operating momentum and profitability in the short to medium term, coupled with sizeable solvency strengthening (and the related prospect of a solid improvement in shareholder returns). Despite the upturn in the re-rating since April (+28% YTD, +2 pp vs the sector) and ...

Benoit Valleaux ... (+2)
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould

Millennium BCP : La copie solide au T1 2024 valide le potentiel de rer...

>Opinion Surperformance maintenue – OC porté à 0.47 € (vs 0.43 €) - Les résultats T1 2024 confortent notre call positif sur BCP, axé pour rappel sur le redressement significatif de l’opérationnel underlying et de la rentabilité à CMT couplé au renforcement notable de la solvabilité (et in fine la perspective associée d’amélioration notable du retour à l’actionnaire). En dépit de la reprise notable du processus de rerating du titre depuis avril (+28% YTD, +2 pp vs sect...

Andreas Riemann ... (+3)
  • Andreas Riemann
  • Jean Danjou
  • Usama Tariq

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 03/28/2024

With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a substantia...

Andreas Riemann ... (+3)
  • Andreas Riemann
  • Jean Danjou
  • Usama Tariq

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 28/03/2024

Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la Chin...

Benoit Valleaux ... (+2)
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould

Millennium BCP : The Fosun overhang should not obscure the appealing i...

>Outperform rating confirmed – target price raised to € 0.43 (vs € 0.41) - The Q4/full-year 2023 results confirmed our fundamentally positive approach on BCP, which as a reminder is based on a significant recovery on the underlying operating and profitability fronts in the short to medium term, as well as a notably strengthening of solvency (and ultimately the related prospect of a notable improvement in shareholder returns). The relative pause in the share re-rating ...

Benoit Valleaux ... (+2)
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould

Millennium BCP : L’overhang Fosun ne doit pas occulter l’attractivité ...

>Opinion Surperformance confortée – OC porté à 0.43 € (vs 0.41 €) - Les résultats T4/annuels 2023 sont venus conforter notre approche fondamentalement positive sur BCP, reposant pour rappel sur le redressement significatif de l’opérationnel underlying et de la rentabilité à CMT ainsi que le renforcement notable de la solvabilité (et in fine la perspective associée d’amélioration notable du retour à l’actionnaire). La relative pause observée depuis notre dernier point ...

Benoit Valleaux ... (+3)
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 03/14/2024

Banks tick all the boxes in the market’s current configuration: search for discounted sectors, cyclical momentum, sectors driven by long-term interest rates that remain high and shareholder returns through very high dividend yields. Technical analysis reveals a strong conviction since early March, and this should continue. We prefer banks in southern Europe, where the macro outlook is brighter. Alongside CaixaBank, which we are maintaining in our list of European Large Cap stocks, we ...

Baptiste Salaville ... (+4)
  • Baptiste Salaville
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/14/2024

Banks tick all the boxes in the market’s current configuration: search for discounted sectors, cyclical momentum, sectors driven by long-term interest rates that remain high and shareholder returns through very high dividend yields. Technical analysis reveals a strong conviction since early March, and this should continue. We prefer banks in southern Europe, where the macro outlook is brighter. Alongside CaixaBank, which we are maintaining in our list of European Large Cap stocks, we ...

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