We are removing GALP from our ODDO BHF European Large Caps list. The stock has chalked up a performance of +31.3% since its inclusion in the list on 20 March. Our analyst is adopting today a Neutral recommendation (vs Outperform) on the stock. - ...
>Q1 even tougher than expected but with no consequence for the year - Although VW had expected a tough Q1, earnings were nonetheless 7% below estimates (EBIT) with an operating margin of 6.1% (consensus at 6.5%) and negative FCF of close to € 3bn (vs consensus at -€ 921m). The causes were known, but had an even more negative impact than anticipated, mainly with the supply difficulties at Audi (operating margin for Progressive unit at just 3.4% vs consensus 7.7%) and, ...
>Un T1 encore plus difficile qu’anticipé mais sans conséquence sur l’année - Si VW avait bien prévenu d’un T1 difficile, les résultats sont néanmoins ressortis inférieurs de 7% aux attentes (EBIT) avec une MOP de 6.1% (consensus à 6.5%) et un FCF négatif de près de 3 Md€ (vs consensus à -921 M€). Les causes étaient connues mais ont eu un impact encore plus négatif qu’anticipé avec, essentiellement, les difficultés d’approvisionnement chez Audi (MOP Progressive à seule...
Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...
Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...
>Near-term challenges remain, improvement thereafter unlikely to be pencilled in - VW held a CMD in China yesterday (PR link), where the OEM reaffirmed and detailed its "China for China" strategy in the country and its ambitions. In a nutshell, our view would be that there was not much news from VW, with the China story still requiring both a lot of faith and patience. As VW management once again seems to be emphasizing, the next two years (at least) will remain chall...
>Near-term challenges remain, improvement thereafter unlikely to be pencilled in - VW held a CMD in China yesterday (PR link), where the OEM reaffirmed and detailed its "China for China" strategy in the country and its ambitions. In a nutshell, our view would be that there was not much news from VW, with the China story still requiring both a lot of faith and patience. As VW management once again seems to be emphasizing, the next two years (at least) will remain chall...
Le momentum autour de l’électrification, moins favorable dernièrement, a conduit à un changement profond de perception, passant d’un optimisme sans doute excessif à un pessimisme qui le semble tout autant. En effet, si nous avons revu en baisse nos hypothèses, nous visons néanmoins toujours une croissance dans les années à venir (y compris cette année), bien supérieure à celle du marché automobile dans son ensemble. Face à ces changements, tous les acteurs au sein de la chaîne de...
With momentum around electrification less favourable of late, we have seen a major shift in perception, from doubtless overly rose-tinted optimism to what looks to be similarly excessive pessimism. While we have reduced our BEV assumptions, we nonetheless still anticipate growth in the next few years (including this year), well ahead of that of the automotive market as a whole. In the face of these changes, the players in the value chain (mines, semiconductors, auto) are differen...
Banks tick all the boxes in the market’s current configuration: search for discounted sectors, cyclical momentum, sectors driven by long-term interest rates that remain high and shareholder returns through very high dividend yields. Technical analysis reveals a strong conviction since early March, and this should continue. We prefer banks in southern Europe, where the macro outlook is brighter. Alongside CaixaBank, which we are maintaining in our list of European Large Cap stocks, we ...
Les banques cochent toutes les cases de la configuration de marché actuelle : recherche de secteurs décotés, momentum cyclique, secteurs portés par des taux longs qui restent hauts, retour à l’actionnaire via un très haut dividend yield. L’analyse technique montre une forte conviction depuis début mars, qui devrait se poursuivre. Nous favorisons les banques du sud de l’Europe, à la macro plus avenante. Aux côtés de CaixaBank, que nous conservons dans notre liste de valeurs Large Caps ...
>Preliminaries already known, more colour on the outlook - While the group had already published preliminary 2023 results and announced its main 2024 outlook, the focus of yesterday's release was mostly on the details of the Q4 performance and, most importantly, on additional colour in terms of this year's targets in the context of the recovery plan VW announced at the end of 2023. Neutral recommendation underpinned, no real catalysts in the short term - §...
>Préliminaires déjà connus, davantage de couleur sur les perspectives - Alors que le groupe avait déjà publié des résultats préliminaires 2023 et annoncé ses principales perspectives 2024, le focus de la publication d’hier tenait essentiellement au détail de la performance du T4 et, surtout, à davantage de précisions quant aux objectifs de cette année et au plan de redressement de la marque VW annoncé fin 2023. Opinion Neutre confortée, pas de vrai cataly...
>Better year-end than expected, 2024 outlook ok but less optimistic than hoped? - As expected, VW reported, on Friday afternoon, its preliminary 2023 figures (final release/call on 13 March), which point to a better end to the year than expected in terms of revenue (Q4 sales of € 87bn vs a consensus of € 80bn), in line margin-wise (7.3%) and much better on FCF, driven by largely positive WC in Q4 (+€ 5bn; inventories). The 2024 outlook, underpinned particularly by the...
>Fin d’année meilleure que prévu mais objectifs 2024 moins optimistes qu’espéré - Comme attendu, VW a publié, vendredi après-midi, ses préliminaires 2023 (résultats le 13/03), faisant état d’une fin d’année meilleure qu’attendu en termes d’activité (CA T4 à 87 Md€ vs consensus à 80 Md€), en ligne en termes de marge (7.3%) et bien meilleure sur le FCF, tiré par un effet BFR largement positif au T4 (+5 Md€). Les perspectives 2024, notamment soutenues par la base de dépa...
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