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Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - New guidance structure

Q4 sales and EBITDA missed our forecasts as strategic brands sales were soft. The 2024 guidance was also soft but in a new better structure, we believe, for revenue growth of 7–10% CER (-4% in DKK) and adj. EBITDA growth of 10–16% in CER (-9% in DKK). We also note the decision to move Lu AF82422 into phase III in MSA. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - Focus on guidance and M&A

We expect Lundbeck to reach the high end of its 2023 guidance, and forecast Q4 revenue of DKK5,111m and adj. EBITDA of DKK929m. For 2024, we look for continued good growth across strategic brands (we forecast 12.9%), and we believe investors will focus on the M&A agenda to strengthen the late-stage pipeline. We expect the 2024 guidance to be for revenue of DKK21.0bn–21.6bn and EBITDA of DKK5.7bn–6.3bn. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - Focus on progressing the pipeline

At Lundbeck’s R&D event in London yesterday, focus was on pipeline progression and its R&D commitment. Lundbeck believes two of the six discussed pipeline candidates could reach the market in 2029. In the coming years, we expect increased focus on acquisitions to strengthen the late-stage pipeline to facilitate timely new product launches before the ‘patent cliff’ (we estimate in 2029). We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - R&D event ahead

Despite a Q3 revenue miss, Lundbeck has narrowed its 2023 revenue guidance to DKK19.8bn–20.1bn but raised adj. EBITDA to DKK5.6bn–5.8bn, reflecting the Q3 beat on lower R&D costs. We expect the R&D event due on 30 November to be an eye-opener, as we believe most investors have assigned limited value to the pipeline. We reiterate our BUY and target price of DKK44.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - Another increase to guidance likely

We expect Q3 top-line growth of 8.7% YOY (consensus 7.8%), driven by strategic brands, for which we forecast sales growth of 10.5% YOY, and an EBIT margin of 16.5% versus consensus of 15.5% (results due at 07:00 CET on 8 November). We expect the company to raise its 2023 guidance for revenue to DKK19.9bn–20.2bn (from DKK19.5bn–20.1bn) and for adj. EBITDA to DKK5.4bn–5.7bn (from DKK5.2bn–5.6bn). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK44 (41).

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK41.00) - CEO leaving on a high note

Bowing out on a high note, CEO Deborah Dunsire unveiled robust Q2 sales and a solid beat on adj. EBITDA, prompting an increase in the 2023 revenue guidance to DKK19.5bn–20.1bn (from DKK19.4bn– 20.0bn) and adj. EBITDA to DKK5.2bn–5.5bn (from DKK5.1bn–5.4bn). We see a strong possibility of incoming CEO Charl van Zyl extending the run of raised guidance with the Q3 report, and reiterate our BUY and DKK41 target price.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK41.00) - Still too early to raise guidance

We forecast Q2 top-line growth of 9.1% YOY (consensus 7.9%), driven by strategic brands, for which we forecast 15.4% sales growth YOY, and an EBIT margin of 16.1% (consensus 15.7%). We expect an unchanged 2023 guidance for revenues of DKK19.4bn–20.0bn and adj. EBITA of DKK5.1bn–5.5bn, but see scope for Lundbeck to raise its guidance later this year. We reiterate our BUY and DKK41 target price.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK41.00) - Still too early to raise guidance

We forecast Q2 top-line growth of 9.1% YOY (consensus 7.9%), driven by strategic brands, for which we forecast 15.4% sales growth YOY, and an EBIT margin of 16.1% (consensus 15.7%). We expect an unchanged 2023 guidance for revenues of DKK19.4bn–20.0bn and adj. EBITA of DKK5.1bn–5.5bn, but see scope for Lundbeck to raise its guidance later this year. We reiterate our BUY and DKK41 target price.

Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo ... (+6)
  • Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
  • Jørgen Lian
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK41.00) - Q1 beat, FDA approval of AAD

Robust Q1 sales growth of 15.4% YOY and lower R&D costs YOY (16.6% R&D-to-sales versus 22.4% last year) represented a strong start to the year. The FDA has approved Rexulti in Alzheimer’s agitation disease (AAD), and we expect a US launch in H2 with Lundbeck’s share of peak sales of USD562m in 2028e. Lundbeck kept its 2023 revenue guidance and introduced adj. EBITDA guidance of DKK5.1bn–5.4bn (we forecast DKK5.3bn). We reiterate our BUY and DKK41 target price.

Alexander Aukner ... (+11)
  • Alexander Aukner
  • Douglas Lindahl
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Jørgen Lian
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen
  • Stefan Gauffin
  • Tomi Railo
Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK41.00) - Q1 beat, new 2023 guidance

Q1 sales were DKK5,044m (we forecast DKK4,747m, consensus DKK4,791m), and EBIT was strong at DKK1,233m (we forecast DKK975m, consensus DKK904m), benefiting from the timing of R&D expenses. Lundbeck kept its 2023 revenue guidance and introduced adj. EBITDA guidance of DKK5.1bn–5.5bn. We expect 1–2% positive consensus 2023e EPS revisions and the share price up 1–3% today.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK41.00) - Set for a strong Q1 EBIT margin

Although we are c0.9% below consensus on Q1e sales, we are c7.8% above on reported EBIT, which we expect to benefit from c9.5% lower R&D costs YOY as several studies have ended. We expect FDA approval of Rexulti in Alzheimer’s agitation (PDFUA on 10 May) and a US launch in H2. We look for unchanged 2023 guidance of DKK19.4bn–20.0bn sales and DKK4.8bn–5.2bn EBITDA. We reiterate our BUY but have raised our target price to DKK41 (39).

Alexander Aukner ... (+11)
  • Alexander Aukner
  • Emil Jonsson
  • Jesper Ingildsen
  • Johannes Grunselius
  • Martin Arnell
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Miika Ihamaki
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Ambitious medium-term targets

Q4 sales and core EBIT beat our forecasts. The 2023 guidance for revenue of DKK19.4bn–20.0bn was below our estimate, while the EBITDA guidance of DKK4.8bn–5.2bn was above. However, Lundbeck’s new medium-term targets (3–4 years) surprised on the upside in terms of profitability versus our estimates, with the company aiming for a mid-single digit organic CAGR and 30–32% EBITDA margin. We reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Another investment year

We still see strong growth in key products for Q4e and believe Lundbeck will reach its 2022 guidance. We plan to focus on the 2023 guidance and expect an update on the medium-term targets as the EBIT margin target seems unachievable with the current investment plans. We remain positive on the long-term growth outlook and expect two product approvals in 2023. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK39 (46).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier ... (+5)
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Arnell
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen
Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK46.00) - Continued strong momentum

Revenue and ‘core’ EBIT in Q3 beat our estimates and consensus, triggering yesterday’s higher than expected 2022 guidance increase. We believe the high end of the raised guidance is more realistic and expect the positive momentum in strategic brands to continue in Q4 and into 2023e. We expect the strong cash flow to be used for acquisitions to support the pipeline. We reiterate our BUY and target price of DKK46.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK46.00) - Strategic brands lift Q3

Q3 top-line growth was c17.6% YOY, above consensus, and core EBIT was DKK1,229m, resulting in a core EBIT margin of 26.0% (consensus: 22.6%). Strategic brands reported strong sales growth of c30% YOY (consensus: 26.3%). The 2022 guidance from 8 November was reiterated – sales of DKK17,900m–18,200m, EBITDA of DKK4,400m–4,600m, core EBIT of DKK3,900m–4,100m, and reported EBIT of DKK2,600m–2,800m. We see limited consensus 2022e EPS revisions and the shares outperform today.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK46.00) - Another increase to guidance likely

We forecast Q3 top-line growth of 12.8% YOY, driven by ongoing momentum in strategic brands, for which we forecast 27.7% sales growth YOY. We believe the guidance is set to be raised to revenues of DKK17.5bn–17.9bn (DKK17.2bn–17.7bn), EBITDA of DKK4.3bn–4.6bn, core EBIT of DKK3.9bn–4.2bn (DKK3.8bn–4.1bn) and reported EBIT of DKK2.5bn–2.8bn (DKK2.4bn–2.7bn). We reiterate our BUY and target price of DKK46.

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