Q1 report: drumming for clear AIR

Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK5.00) - Ongoing renovation

We have lowered our 2024–2025e sales slightly and our adj. EBIT by 10–5% ahead of the Q1 results. While we find Nobia’s financial position has improved significantly following the de-leveraging measures, we see some demand uncertainty into 2025 and 2026 (primarily in the Project business), and reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK5 (3.58), based on a blended 2-year forward EV/sales of 0.65x.

Limited change in EP spending

After reviewing oil companies’ most recent spending plans, we estimate offshore spending growth of c7% YOY for 2024, in line with our November update. Growth is concentrated, with Petrobras being the key driver, favouring service companies with Brazil exposure. Looking ahead, further spending growth is likely to be partly limited by total spending already being on a par with operating cash flow. Delayed energy transition spending is seen as positive for oil services, while recent E&P consolidati...

TGS (Hold, TP: NOK130.00) - Too early to call it a full comeback

Based on the strong intraday share price reaction (+9%), the Q1 late-sales beat appears to have been a relief to investors following the soft Q4. The share price is trading 5% higher than pre-Q4, despite consensus 2024–2025 EPS having come down 20–25%. Moreover, combined late-sales for Q4 and Q1 were c30–35% below initial consensus. We believe the strong share price reaction implies limited room for disappointments, as buy-side consensus appears higher for future earnings, leaving risk/reward ne...

Scorpio Tankers Inc: 1 director

A director at Scorpio Tankers Inc sold 124,649 shares at 72.162USD and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...

TGS (Hold, TP: NOK120.00) - Weak risk/reward ahead of Q1e

The TGS share price is now only 6% shy of the levels ahead of the material Q4 revenue miss in early January, after trading almost 30% lower at the trough in mid-February. This, in combination with our Q1 revenue estimates being 3% below consensus, implies that the risk/reward ahead of numbers does not look particularly attractive, in our view. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK120 (105).

Nobia AB: 1 director

A director at Nobia AB bought 50,000 shares at 7.330SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 65/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...

Vicore Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) - Q4 in line with expectations

We believe the Q4 report was somewhat of a non-event, and adjusted for two writedowns of intangible assets, the operating loss was in line with our forecast. For 2024, we look forward to the commencement of the phase IIb trial ASPIRE for IPF, and expect additional follow-up data from the single arm trial AIR in H1. We reiterate our BUY and SEK70 target price.