Himalaya Shipping (an LNG-fuelled replica of 2020 Bulkers’ business model) is now fully funded, dual-listed, (still) dual-fuelled, and fully scrubber-fitted with vessels hitting the water ahead of an expected upswing in dry bulk earnings propelled by a 30-year low orderbook-to-fleet ratio. We consider its high financial leverage and favourable terms highly attractive heading into stronger dry bulk markets. We reintroduce a recommendation with a BUY and NOK83 target price.
DNB hosted its 16th annual Energy & Shipping Conference. On day two, we hosted sector panels and presentations for dry bulk, LPG, car carriers, LNG and tankers with senior management representatives from 29 shipping companies. A resurging Chinese economy coupled with tight supply outlook, strong demand growth potential and regulations putting pressure to remove older vessels were among the common themes. Overall, the discussions showcase optimism across the sectors.
We have made minor changes to our near-term forecasts following the H1 results, but a narrower LNG fuel advantage has prompted negative revisions. We still find Himalaya Shipping’s exposure to post-2023 dry bulk markets attractive, as it offers the opportunity to surpass potential near-term headwinds and maintains what we view as attractive leverage to a fundamental shortage of dry bulk shipping capacity down the road. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to NOK82 (94).
A post-pandemic recovery in volumes is proving more elusive than we expected, but a constrained fleet-growth outlook still means the underlying market balance looks set to improve until 2025e. Along the way, roughly 5% excess congestion needs to be ‘consumed’, aided by higher fuel costs and regulations capping sailing speeds. Rates should stay elevated in a historical context, paving the way for solid shareholder returns. Thus, we reiterate our BUYs across our sector coverage.
Himalaya Shipping is an LNG-fuelled replica of 2020 Bulkers’ business model. It is fully funded and has vessels on order designed for strict environmental regulations by 2024e, by when we expect limited dry bulk supply growth. We consider its high leverage and prudent cash costs attractive from an historical perspective, and initiate coverage with a BUY and NOK79 target price.
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