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Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/08/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Operating update – Net production in Austria was 303 boe/d. The company held A$4.8 mm in cash at the end of June. Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price of C$0.35 per share: Successful flow test at North-MGH boosts expected 2H26 gas production to 7-10 mmcf/d – The MGH-20 well in the North Mengoepeh (MGH) field tested 2.8 mmcf/d with associated oil. This is a positive surprise a...

Hybridan Team ... (+2)
  • Hybridan Team
  • Jon Levinson

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 30/07/2025

30th July 2025 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been provided as a general market commentary and is issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as investment advice; a recommendation; an offer to sell; nor solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument. Nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract re...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Another impressive acquisition in Thailand

• Valeura is acquiring from PTTEP 40% WI in Blocks G1/65 and G3/65 with a combined area of 20,134 km2 and bordering some of the largest gas fields in Thailand (Erawan and Bongkot). The blocks have multiple gas discoveries that could be developed shortly as tie backs to existing infrastructure—positioning Valeura to potentially book its first gas reserves in the near term. Both licences offer oil potential adjacent to Valeura’s current production. • Located immediately south of the Rossukon oil ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 18/07/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: AB wells deliver flow rates above expectations – Current production ranges between 4,600 and 4,800 bbl/d driven by strong performance from two new horizontal wells at Alberta Llanos (AB). AB-HZ5, onstream for ~2 weeks, is producing 1,790 bbl/d (895 bbl/d net to Arrow), while AB-HZ4, online for over a month, continues to produce 880 bbl/d (440 bbl/d net). Both wells are ou...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Refining the path to first production i...

• The Paradox initial processing capacity is envisaged to be able to handle 5-10 mmcf/d. Our base case assumes a conservative 5 mmcf/d, although throughput capacity is expected to increase with the tie-in of additional wells, including 16-2LN-CC and 28-11. Notably, the plant’s initial capacity is below the production potential of the 36-2R well. • The light condensate (52–60° API) produced is expected to command a premium over benchmark crudes, given its suitability for blending with lower-qual...

Daniel Slater
  • Daniel Slater

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN) - Operational update - BUY

Arrow has released an operational update, announcing three new wells drilled and brought onstream, supporting production and cash flows as the company continues to drill up its Tapir block in Colombia.

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): AB wells deliver flow rates above ...

• Current production ranges between 4,600 and 4,800 bbl/d driven by strong performance from two new horizontal wells at Alberta Llanos (AB). AB-HZ5, onstream for ~2 weeks, is producing 1,790 bbl/d (895 bbl/d net to Arrow), while AB-HZ4, online for over a month, continues to produce 880 bbl/d (440 bbl/d net). Both wells are outperforming expectations in terms of flow rates and pressure, which may positively impact reserves estimates. By comparison, AB-1 and AB=3 had IP rates of 658 bb/d and 580 b...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 11/07/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ New Zealand Energy (NZ CN)C: Equity raise – New Zealand will raise up to C$3 mm of new equity at a price of C$0.18 per share. This includes the settlement of outstanding loans of C$0.3 mm through the issue of ~1.7 mm shares. Valeura Energy (VLE CN)C; Target price of C$12.70 per share: Another strong quarter. FY25 guidance re-iterated – 2Q25 production was 21.4 mbbl/d, which is very close to our forecast (~22 mbbl/d). The company repor...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Another strong quarter. FY25 guidance re-it...

• 2Q25 production was 21.4 mbbl/d, which is very close to our forecast (~22 mbbl/d). • The company reported a net cash position of US$241.9 mm at end-June, significantly above our expected US$210 mm. This reflects both the timing of capital expenditures across 2025 and continued strong operating performance. • Despite a high oil inventory level of 0.93 mmbbl at end-June (vs. 0.89 mmbbl at end-March), the free cash flow was ahead of our expectations. For reference, YE24 inventory stood at 0.64 m...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 04/07/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Under review: Potential demerger – The management of Chariot is considering splitting the company in two entities, one focusing on upstream oil and gas and the other on renewable power. The latter will also house the hydrogen and water assets. Pending further details, we are placing the company under review. New Zealand Energy (NZ CN)C: Operating update in New Zealand. Equity raise – The copper Moki-2 well has bee...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Equity raise for Rocky Mountain acquisi...

• Zephyr has raised £10.5 mm of new equity at £0.03 per share. The proceeds of the raise will fund (1) a £5.4 mm acquisition of 0.6 mmboe 2P and ~400 boe/d net production in the Rocky Mountains and (2) working capital and capex through to first production at its flagship Paradox Basin development. • The acquisition includes working interests in a portfolio of over 400 wells, with 21 to be operated by Zephyr. It also brings near-term PUD upside across 20,000+ acres, including 17 drilled but uncom...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 27/06/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ New Zealand Energy (NZ CN)C: Financial update – New Zealand has received short term loans totalling C$0.48 mm from Charlestown Energy Partners and a company controlled by New Zealand’s Chairman. The loans, which were issued with an original issuance discount of 10%. are unsecured and non-convertible, with interest payable at 15% per annum and repayment is due on August 27, 2025, The company now intends to complete a private placement. ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 13/06/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Energy (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Share buyback programme – Arrow has announced a share buyback programme for up to £2.7 mm worth of shares, representing 5% of the company’s public float. This highlights the strength of the business and the cashflow. Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.45 per share: Licence extension in Vietnam – The exploration period on Blocks 125 & 126 has been extended by two ye...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud
FP TOTAL SE
OMV OMV AG ... (+11)

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 30/05/2025

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Gearing-up for acquisitions? – 1Q25 production was 4,085 boe/d with no horizontal wells drilled in the period. RCE is more mature than CN and while no drilling has taken place at RCE, the decline rate between 4Q24 and 1Q25 was only ~5%. 1Q25 Production was constrained by increased water production preventing the company increasing the speed of the pumps at some of its producing wells. The increased amount of produced water increase...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Paradox Resources boost following inter...

• The analysis of the well test result at well 36-2R suggests recoverable resources of 0.84-1.24 mmboe for the 4,000 feet lateral. The reservoir characteristics are consistent across the length of the lateral with consistent contribution from the reservoir matrix to the flow rate. Extrapolating these results across a longer lateral of 10,000 to 15,000 feet suggests recoverable volumes per well of 9 bcf to 37.5 bcf with a condensate yield of 20-60 bbl/mmcf. The base case is 15-17 bcf (plus conden...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Gearing-up for acquisitions?

• 1Q25 production was 4,085 boe/d with no horizontal wells drilled in the period. RCE is more mature than CN and while no drilling has taken place at RCE, the decline rate between 4Q24 and 1Q25 was only ~5%. • 1Q25 Production was constrained by increased water production preventing the company increasing the speed of the pumps at some of its producing wells. The increased amount of produced water increased opex. • In order to address the increased water production, remove the oil production bot...

Daniel Slater
  • Daniel Slater

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN) - Q1 2025 results - BUY

Arrow has released its Q1 2025 results, showing a period of ongoing production and cash flows ahead of a planned ramp up in drilling going into H2 2025.

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Potential reserves additions following appr...

• Valeura has completed an 8 well drilling programme on Block B5/27. • Two wells at Jasmine C encountered more oil pay than expected. • Two development wells at Ban Yen A are now on production and appraised new reservoirs, adding drilling locations and will likely contribute to reserves when next evaluated at year-end. One of the wells (BYA-35ST1) encountered an oil pay 100% larger than expected. The third well was an appraisal well. It encountered an oil-water contact deeper than expected but t...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/05/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C: Recovering 75% WI of licences in Morocco – Energean has returned its Moroccan offshore interests to Chariot. As a result, Chariot now holds 75% in the Lixus Offshore and Rissana Offshore licences. Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.90 per share: Acquiring a LNG facility for Kazakhstan to deliver first LNG sale in 2Q26 – 1Q25 production in Uzbekistan was 11,179 boe/d (+6% vs. production in 4Q24). Condor ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): FID at Wassana adds 8.6 mmbbl 2P reserves

• The 1Q25 production and cash position at the end of March were in line with previous indications. However the adjusted working capital was ~US$15 mm higher than cash given an oil inventory increase of 0.89 mmbbl. • Valeura has taken FID at Wassana (G10/48 licence), resulting in the conversion of 8.6 mmbbl 2C contingent resources into 2P reserves. Wassana’s 2P reserves now stand at 20.5 mmbbl, with the field expected to produce 10 mbbl/d in 2H27, representing almost 45% of FY24 production. • T...

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