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Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 11/04/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Stable production, 10% cash increase – Net production is currently exceeding 4.5 mboe/d, consistent with January levels. The CN HZ10 well, located in the northern area of the CN field, commenced production on 31 March, delivering 1,183 bbl/d of oil (591 bbl/d net to Arrow) with a 21% water cut from the Ubaque reservoir. The well is in the process of cleaning up, with the water cut gradually decreasing. The CN ...

Daniel Slater
  • Daniel Slater

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN) - Operational update - BUY

Arrow has released an operational update, reporting on recent horizontal drilling and current production and cash levels, alongside emphasising the flexible nature of its material 2025 drilling programme.

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Stable production, 10% cash increa...

• Net production is currently exceeding 4.5 mboe/d, consistent with January levels. • The CN HZ10 well, located in the northern area of the CN field, commenced production on 31 March, delivering 1,183 bbl/d of oil (591 bbl/d net to Arrow) with a 21% water cut from the Ubaque reservoir. The well is in the process of cleaning up, with the water cut gradually decreasing. • The CN HZ09 well, situated in the southern area of the field, is producing 244 bbl/d of oil (122 bbl/d net) from the Ubaque res...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Lower oil prices could generate acquisition...

• 1Q25 production averaged 23.9 mboe/d, which is in line with previous indications. This included a planned seven-day annual maintenance shutdown at the Nong Yao field near the end of the quarter. Production resumed on 1 April. • Valeura has re-iterated its FY25 production guidance of 23-25.5 mbbl/d. • FID for the Wassana redevelopment is still anticipated in 2Q25, with first oil expected in early-2027, though the company has indicated that it will "review and optimise its expenditures" given th...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/03/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Production rises again. Maiden reserves report. First LNG sales in Kazakhstan on track for 1H26 – YE24 2P reserves in Uzbekistan were estimated at 18.5 mmboe. 4Q24 production was 10,511 boe/d increasing to 12,019 boe/d in March to date and 12,288 boe/d over the past five days. In March, Condor signed a non-binding letter of intent outlining the basic terms and conditions for ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): FY24 results in line. Additional reserves e...

• FY24 production, YE24 reserves and YE24 net cash had been reported previously. The FY25 guidance has been re-iterated. • Production in March to date at Manora was 2.9 mbbl/d. • FID for the Wassana redevelopment is still anticipated in early 2Q25, with first oil expected in early-2027. A significant portion of the 10.6 mmbbl low-risk contingent resources at Wassana will be converted into 2P reserves upon FID. • 10 development and appraisal wells are currently planned for the Jasmine field in 2...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/03/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Reserves increase showcases FY24 drilling success – YE24 2P and 3P reserves are estimated at 13.6 mmboe and 22.3 mmboe, respectively. This represents an increase of 15% and 25%, respectively vs. YE23. Adding back FY24 production of 1.3 mmboe, the 2024 activity program has added approximately 2.8 mmboe of 2P reserves and 5.3 mmboe of 3P reserves at Tapir (overall increase ...

Daniel Slater
  • Daniel Slater

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN) - Reserves update - BUY

Arrow has released its end 2024 reserves update, showing increases across various categories, including high reserves replacement ratios, based on the successful development and exploration drilling programmes during the year. Activity continues, with new horizontal development drilling ongoing.

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Appraisal drilling results at Albe...

• YE24 2P and 3P reserves are estimated at 13.6 mmboe and 22.3 mmboe, respectively. This represents an increase of 15% and 25%, respectively vs. YE23. • Adding back FY24 production of 1.3 mmboe, the 2024 activity program has added approximately 2.8 mmboe of 2P reserves and 5.3 mmboe of 3P reserves at Tapir (overall increase including all the company’s assets: +3.0 mmboe of 2P reserves and +5.7 mmboe of 3P reserves). • The 2P reserves addition during 2024 is in line with our forecasts (+3.4 mmboe...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Investor visit: adding depth and breadth

• Valeura hosted an investor trip to its operations in Thailand earlier this month. The visit underscored three key aspects: (1) the extensive experience of the management team, (2) the strong relationships with Thai authorities, and (3) the substantial breadth of its assets, offering more potential than previously anticipated. • Greg Kulawski, Valeura's COO, brings extensive experience to the company's shallow water operations in Thailand. His previous roles at Shell include Deputy CEO of Sakha...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Key Paradox well test results expected ...

• FY24 sales volumes averaged 1,149 boe/d including 139 bbl/d of NGL. The NGL sales were higher than we were anticipating (~100 bbl/d) but FY24 production of 1,052 boe/d was impacted by downtime experienced in the Williston Basin in 4Q24 due to extreme weather in the area. 4Q24 net production was 829 boe/d (plus NGL that we estimate at 90-100 bbl/d). • In the Paradox basin, 97% of the lateral in the State 36-2 LNW-CC-R well was drilled in the Cane Creek reservoir with elevated mud gas levels. ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 07/03/2025

GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$17 per share: Four new exploration wells at Confluencia Sur – The FY24 production had been reported previously. Gross production in Argentina is approximately 15,000 boe/d and is expected to increase to around 16,000-17,000 boe/d by the end of 2025. The acquisition of the Argentinian assets is anticipated to be completed in late 1Q25 or early 2Q25 pending the regulatory approval of the Neuquen province. While the test results at the three wells drilled at C...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Production boost and likely reserves increa...

• Valeura has drilled three new production wells and two appraisal wells at Manora. Four of these wells are now online, boosting production from 2,144 bbl/d to 2,866 bbl/d. • The results of the A35 and A36 appraisal wells have derisked 3-5 potential future drilling targets. The associated resources were not included in the YE24 reserves estimates and are likely to be booked as reserves, extending the field's life. • The A38 well was completed with an innovative downhole autonomous inflow contro...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 21/02/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Very high flow rate at bypassed zone boosts production and unlocks reserves - A potential bypassed 60 m gas pay section, identified using advanced cased-hole logging tools and reprocessed existing 3-D seismic data, was put in production over a 23 m perforated interval at a rate of 1,100 boe/d, increasing to 1,300 boe/d over the past five days as the completion fluid has been ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/02/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: New acreage in Austria increases prospect inventory with a focus on low risk, shallow gas - ADX’s acreage in Austria has been modified to include additional near-term, low-risk gas prospects, as well as high-impact, higher-risk opportunities. One focus of the 2025 program is to drill shallow, low-risk, high initial production gas prospects that can be rapidly put into production. ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): 245% Reserves Replacement Ratio. 2C Resourc...

• YE24 2P reserves were estimated at 50 mmbbl (up from 38 mmbbl at YE23). This represents a Reserves Replacement Ratio of 245%, significantly above our expectations of ~100%. • The reserves revision reflects (1) upward revision of STOIIP estimates (the high achieved recovery factors suggest that the volumes initially in place had been underestimated), (ii), positive drilling results which reflect Valeura's application of advanced drilling and completion technologies including geosteering and inf...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 02/07/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Appraisal drilling results at Alberta Llanos unlock full field development with horizontal wells - Following the discovery well, Arrow has drilled two new vertical wells at Alberta Llanos, effectively delineating the field. The AB-2 well at the far northern limit of the field encountered multiple hydrocarbon-bearing intervals with good reservoir characteristics but came i...

Daniel Slater
  • Daniel Slater

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN) - AB-3 drilling to underpin horizontals - B...

Arrow has released an update on drilling at its Alberta Llanos discovery which has now confirmed the potential to deploy horizontal drilling on the field going forward. The 2025 drilling programme continues, with a second rig expected to be deployed from Q2.

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Appraisal drilling results at Albe...

• Following the discovery well, Arrow has drilled two new vertical wells at Alberta Llanos, effectively delineating the field. • The AB-2 well at the far northern limit of the field encountered multiple hydrocarbon-bearing intervals with good reservoir characteristics but came in structurally lower than anticipated, resulting in sub-economic oil rates from the Carbonera sandstones. Additional zones can be completed at a later stage. • The AB-3 well at the extreme south of the field encountered f...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 24/01/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Historic permit award in Italy opens a new growth area - ADX has been offered and accepted the “d 363 C.R-.AX” permit in the Sicily Channel, offshore Italy, covering a maximum area of 346 km2. ADX applied for the permit in 2018, but the moratorium on awarding new exploration blocks in Italy was only lifted last year. ADX will become a licensed operator in Italy as well as Austria ...

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