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Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

ODDO : Glass half full – Volume recovery started after almost 2 years ...

As Spring approaches, we see industry-wide destocking coming to an end, emerging recovery trends in China gaining momentum and European spot energy cost relief rolling in, all helping to restore plant utilisation and earnings. We add more cyclicality to our preferred names, upgrading BASF to Outperform (Neutral). Momentum being regained in specialties chemicals distribution triggers our upgrade of IMCD to Outperform (Neutral). ‘From record to record’ remains our mantra at FUCHS. ...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

Covestro AG : Constructive on ADNOC, recovery underway. Stay tuned

>Good finish: Volume recovery ends 6 quarters of decline, better S&S, good FCF - Covestro reported a good finish of a challenging 2023 with Q4 2023 group volume recovery to 3.1% y-o-y (o/w PM +7.7%) ending six quarters of annual volume decline. Plant availability issues in PM also weighed throughout 2023, turning a tailwind in 2024. S&S-EBITDA was the positive surprise, almost matching ‘normal’ Q4 2020 levels. FCF 2023 of € 232m finished strongly.ADNOC – ...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

Covestro AG : Q4 EBITDA 26% above cons, EBITDA 2024 outlook 5% below c...

>Q4 EBITDA of € 132m 26% above cons of € 105m (ODDO € 79m) on better S&S and Q4 volume turnaround - Q4 EBITDA of € 132m came in 26% above the consensus forecast of € 105m (ODDO € 79m) on a significantly better contribution from S&S. Q4 2023 is sequentially down 52% q-o-q compared to € 277m in Q3 2023 but turned around y-o-y vs -€ 38m in Q4 2022. The € 170m y-o-y EBITDA turnaround was primarily fuelled by € 52m from volume recovery to 3.1% y-o-y (Q3 2023: -3.8% y-o-y) ...

Michael B. Schäfer ... (+2)
  • Michael B. Schäfer
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 12/19/2023

Whereas Christine Lagarde's speech was disappointingly timorous, Jerome Powell's clearly went down well with the markets, which hailed (over enthusiastically?) the prospects for the Fed’s rate cuts materialising sooner than initially expected. We are updating our tactical sector allocation to factor in this new outlook, regarding its Relative Value vs Rates score and the momentum of the consensus on EPS. We are revising down autos & parts from Marketweight (MW) to Underweight (UW), te...

Michael B. Schäfer ... (+2)
  • Michael B. Schäfer
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 19/12/2023

Si le discours de Christine Lagarde a déçu par sa timidité, celui de Jérôme Powell a, lui, clairement contenté les marchés, qui ont salué (trop ?) fortement le rapprochement des perspectives de baisses de taux de la Fed. Nous mettons à jour notre allocation sectorielle tactique pour prendre en compte ces nouvelles perspectives sur son score de Valeur Relative vs Taux et sur la dynamique du consensus sur les BPA. Nous dégradons le secteur Autos & Parts de MW à UW, les Télécommunication...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

Covestro AG : ADNOC may submit fresh preliminary proposal 'in the comi...

>Bloomberg reports on ADNOC preparing a 'fresh' preliminary bid for Covestro, offering 'about € 60/share' as soon as 'in the coming days' or later - Bloomberg reported on ADNOC preparing to 'increase' its preliminary takeover offer for Covestro to 'about' € 60/share as soon as 'in the coming days' or may opt to launch the bid in the new year. The article reports on previous indicative offer prices of € 55 and € 57 viewed as too low by Covestro since talks began in mid...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

Covestro AG : Roadshow feedback - CFO rather 'neutral' on ownership; e...

>CFO rather 'neutral' on ownership - We hosted a roadshow with Covestro’s new CFO with thoughts around Covestro/ADNOC and potential drivers in 2024 taking centre stage of discussion. The CFO was rather neutral on questions whether he would prefer strategy execution with multiple shareholders (status-quo) or with a single shareholder like ADNOC. We were pleased to hear that 'also for a German company' shareholders/valuation are of the utmost importance for Covestro, al...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

Covestro AG : Q3 EBITDA -2% vs. css, reduced EBITDA 23 outlook leaves ...

>Q3 EBITDA 2% below cons. of € 282m (ODDO €289m) on higher LTI provision, otherwise in line - Q3 EBITDA of € 277m came in 2% below the consensus forecast of € 282m (ODDO € 289m) on € 19m higher LTI provisions, i.e. would have been at mid-point of the € 240-340m guidance range. Q3 2023 is sequentially down 28% q-o-q vs € 385m in Q2 2023 and down 8% y-o-y vs. € 302m in Q3 2022. € 25m y-o-y EBITDA decline was primarily fuelled by € 69m positive price vs costs delta ...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/21/2023

Jeronimo Martins will hold a CMD in Colombia on 25-26 September where they will update their growth plans in the country and discuss their strategy. In the last decade c.€ 0.8bn have been invested in Ara but the stock price only reflects at present a small fraction. We think that the event could act as a catalyst for the stock which has recently underperformed its peers which grow less, deliver lower returns and are more leveraged. While it is too early to say whether Jeronimo has re...

Bruno Cavalier ... (+2)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Michael B. Schäfer

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 21/09/2023

Jeronimo Martins will hold a CMD in Colombia on 25-26 September where they will update their growth plans in the country and discuss their strategy. In the last decade c.€ 0.8bn have been invested in Ara but the stock price only reflects at present a small fraction. We think that the event could act as a catalyst for the stock which has recently underperformed its peers which grow less, deliver lower returns and are more leveraged. While it is too early to say whether Jeronimo has re...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

Covestro AG : ADNOC - Handelsblatt reports on limited opposition from ...

>Handelsblatt article on pre-sounding of ADNOC with German government/unions - limited opposition, so far - Handelsblatt today reports on ADNOC currently holding pre-sounding talks with German government officials and trade unions on the intended takeover of Covestro. The article refers to talks with the ministry of economics, the chancellery and the respective chemicals industry trade union IGBCE, asking about potential concerns arising from the takeover approach. Th...

Bruno Cavalier ... (+2)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Charlotte Vaisse

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/11/2023

At the 14th edition of our Corporate Conference, hosted jointly by ODDO BHF and Commerzbank, the presenting corporates were still focused on the macroeconomic slowdown in parts of the world and the related impact on their sectors. Regionally, the US remains resilient at good levels, while China and Europe are lagging behind. Energy-intensive sectors remain concerned about German energy cost levels. Destocking of high inventory levels is gradually fading as supply chains normalise. Hen...

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