Tsingtao Brewery’s 3Q23 results missed on weaker-than-expected top-line growth and higher selling expenses. Beer sales volume declined 11% yoy and 15% qoq due to a high base and impact from the bad weather. However, ASP was resilient in 3Q23, demonstrating that Tsingtao’s premiumisation remained intact. We expect the price hikes and premiumisation as well as lower raw material prices to drive further margin expansion in 2024. Maintain BUY with a new target price of HK$86.70.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Aviation Airlines: 3Q23 results broadly in line; bottom line turned around in the seasonal peak quarter. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.90) 3Q23: In line; 3Q23 wind power utilisation hours down 34 hours yoy. ENN Energy Holdings Limited (2688 HK/BUY/HK$61.70/Target: HK$72.10) 3Q23 operational data: 3Q23 dollar margin falls to Rmb0.50/cbm. Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/HOLD/HK$3.81/Target: HK$4.00) 3Q23: Below...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: 3Q23 results broadly in line; bottom line turned around in the seasonal peak quarter. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.90): 3Q23: In line; 3Q23 wind power utilisation hours down 34 hours yoy. Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/HOLD/HK$3.76/Target: HK$4.00): 3Q23: Below expectations; 3Q23 WTG sales growth slows to +6.0% yoy. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY/HK$10.82/Target: HK$13.50): 3Q23: Earnings tripl...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.80 per share: Two high impact wells to commence drilling by YE23 – ADX is expected to start drilling the Anshof-2 appraisal well in November. The well is targeting 4.9 mmboe possible reserves (net to ADX). Anshof is also estimated to hold 5.5 mmboe net 3C contingent resources (net to ADX). The Anshof-2 well is anticipated to be onstream together with the existing Anshof-3 well in 1H24. The Ansh...
During the Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism and catering recovery were on track while duty-free sales recovery was still weak. We prefer sportswear in the discretionary space, given the decent sales momentum during the holiday (Anta: in line with internal targets; Xtep: 20% yoy growth), and baijiu in the staples space, given baijiu’s strong brand power. We prefer Anta in the sportswear sector, given its multiple catalysts, and Moutai in the baijiu sector, for its highest earnings visibility...
Brewers reported solid 1H23 results for their China business, backed by mid-to-high single-digit percentage sales volume growth, ASP expansion and sequentially softer cost pressure. In the near term, we expect sales to pick up in Sep 23 thanks to the Golden Week and low base, though the recovery should be modest amid bad weather. In the medium to long term, we believe premiumisation will remain intact, and brewers’ cost pressure will soften more in 2024. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT.
Although Tsingtao Brewery’s sales momentum was disrupted during July-August due to the bad weather, we are optimistic on its sales growth and premiumisation trend in full-year 2023. The decent sales growth of the company’s flagship products in 1H23 demonstrated strong competitiveness in the sub-premium and above beer market. Maintain BUY with a new target price of HK$91.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$31.05/Target: HK$50.00) 1H23: Reduced provisions cushion NIM pressure and weakening fee income. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$15.62/Target: HK$25.86) 1H23: Decent profitability well maintained; expecting accelerated investment in 2H23. Gala Technology (2458 HK/NOT RATED/HK$4.13) 1H23: Solid results; encouraging outlook stemming from overseas expansion. Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK/HOLD/HK$6.44/Target: HK$7.40) 1H23...
GREATER CHINA Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$31.05/Target: HK$50.00): 1H23: Reduced provisions cushion NIM pressure and weakening fee income. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$15.62/Target: HK$25.86): 1H23: Decent profitability well maintained; expecting accelerated investment in 2H23. Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK/HOLD/HK$6.44/Target: HK$7.40): 1H23: Earnings in line with profit warning; gradual recovery from 2H23. Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc. (2696 HK/SELL/HK$11.20/...
We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the baijiu sector, given the defensiveness of the premium segment. Downgrade the beer sector to MARKET WEIGHT, as we believe that concerns on the weak sales momentum in 2Q23 have not been fully reflected, though share prices of the beer companies under our coverage have corrected by 10.3-11.5% since early-May 23. We prefer Moutai (600519 CH) in the baijiu sector and CR Beer (291 HK) in the beer sector.
We expect to see periodical opportunities in the following months due to the slow pace of consumption recovery and lack of incremental funds. We suggest paying more attention when the share prices dip to a low level that is close to the bottoms in Apr/Oct-Nov 22. We are confident on domestic sportswear leaders’ future growth from the increasing demand for professional sports products against the partially recovered purchasing power. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
In spite of the limited funds in the market, we believe that consumer names’ investment opportunities still exist after share prices factored in rational expectations. We expect players with high earnings visibility and/or faster-than-expected growth pace (ie Moutai, Anta and CR Beer) to remain attractive for investment against a relatively weak consumption recovery background. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
Tsingtao Brewery’s 2022 revenue grew 6.6% yoy while attributable net profit jumped 17.6% yoy. Results were above our and market estimates due to better-than-expected operational cost savings. The mid-to-high-end product mix of the Tsingtao brand continued to expand, reaching 66% of the total. We forecast ASP growth to accelerate to 5.3% yoy in 2023 thanks to both direct and indirect price hikes, amid the deceleration in unit per COGS growth. Maintain BUY and lift target price to HK$88.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$8.35/Target: HK$11.00) 2022: Adjusted earnings up 12.7% yoy; expects positive revenue and earnings growth in 2023. Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$18.88/Target: HK$22.20) 2022: Results in line; Tai Er enters stability and Song Hotpot expands. Minth Group (425 HK/BUY/HK$18.98/Target: HK$27.00) 2H22: Net profit up 42% yoy and 28% hoh, missing estimates. Trim target price from HK$30.00 to HK$27.00. Maintain BUY. T...
GREATER CHINA Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$8.35/Target: HK$11.00): 2022: Adjusted earnings up 12.7% yoy; expects positive revenue and earnings growth in 2023. Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$18.88/Target: HK$22.20): 2022: Results in line; Tai Er enters stability and Song Hotpot expands. Minth Group (425 HK/BUY/HK$18.98/Target: HK$27.00): 2H22: Net profit up 42% yoy and 28% hoh, missing estimates. Trim target price from HK$30.00 to HK$27.00. Maintain BUY. Ten...
While we think the road ahead to an overall consumption recovery is still bumpy despite the RSV pickup in 2M23, we are upbeat on the wealthy group’s sustainable consumption ability and the future growth of China’s luxury and duty-free markets. We believe the duty-free market will grow at a faster pace than the overall luxury market in China. CTGDF will be the largest beneficiary of the government’s intention to nurture it into a super strong duty-free leader globally. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the ...
Concerns on the household segment’s excess deposits continued into 2023 after the peak of its incremental deposits of Rmb17,840b in 2022. However, we expect gradual consumer spending recovery ahead as evidenced in 2021 given the easing of the pandemic and the recovery of consumer confidence. We attribute the share price corrections to the weak sentiment on overall consumption situations, but stay positive on the improving fundamentals. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
We see the recent consumer names’ share price correction as a pause in the upward trend due to: a) a lack of data exceeding market expectations, which would support the high share price levels in a short period, and b) fundamentals that are still improving. We reiterate that verification of improving consumption and further positive market consensus will drive the upward trend ahead. We suggest paying attention to potential further re-rating of Wuliangye ahead. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consume...
We attribute the stronger share price performance of baijiu names than peers to the market’s optimistic expectation on an economic and consumption recovery. We think the view of fundamentals likely remains positive although the share price performance could be diverse at the current stage. We attribute the relatively weak price performance of CTGDF to its limited tourism reception capacity, which will be effectively alleviated after its pipeline projects start operating. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on t...
In the second week after the holidays, the recovery continued and we saw more footfall in shopping malls, and busier roads and highways in Shanghai. We still prefer high-end products and services amid the improving fundamentals. We are also upbeat on the demand for sub-premium baijiu in Feb and Mar 23 given the recovery in drinking occasions. Fenjiu should be the key beneficiary thanks to its competitive product mix and continuous brand revival. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.