reports
- Liberum Research Team
- Liberum Research Team
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Centamin - Q1’23 better than we expected; FY23 guidance reite...
Last week, Q1’23 production came in at 106koz @ US$1,348/oz AISC (All-In Sustaining Costs), and FY23 guidance of 450-480koz @ US$1,250-1,400/oz AISC was reiterated. Centamin had previously flagged production to be H2-weighted, but Q1 production and AISC were better than we had hoped. We have reduced our AISC profile as a result, but the savings are offset by changes to the way we model profit-share and cost-recovery at Sukari. Our target price falls to 93p (from 94p); we reiterate SELL.
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: African Golds - Harmony in progress at Papua after Wafi-Golpu...
We quizzed Harmony Gold (JSE: HAR) about the Morobe provincial government’s change of stance to being supportive of the Wafi-Golpu Joint Venture (JV) in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Apparently, previous opposition stemmed from dissatisfaction with the split of revenues accruing to the province, which issue has been resolved. If Newmont’s blockbuster takeover of JV partner Newcrest goes ahead, Harmony would have first right to acquire Newcrest’s 50% interest, should this be put up for sale.
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: African Golds - Caledonia and Shanta still our favourites for...
Consolidation in the gold space is a hot topic at the moment, particularly given Newmont’s approach to Newcrest. We believe Caledonia and Shanta to be potential targets; Centamin could look to merge with a Tier II/III peer; and Endeavour is unlikely to be a buyer for now. For 2023, we have advocated selected smaller African Gold producers which feature material upcoming catalysts to outperform – a strategy which has worked well so far, with the exception of Centamin (which we now rate SELL on ab...
- Liberum Research Team
LIBERUM: Analyst Best Ideas - Most & Least Preferred Ideas from Liberu...
Liberum's research coverage encompasses more than 300 stocks across 12 pillars. Each quarter we ask our sector teams to list their most and least preferred stocks on a six to 12-month time horizon. Stock selection is largely limited to those names listed in the FTSE 350 and STOXX 600, eliminating less liquid names, and is driven by analysts’ preferences, rather than total shareholder return.
J2B EXPERIAN PLC
AHT ASHTEAD GROUP PLC
KLR KELLER GROUP PLC
MGAM MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIALS
7CT CENTAMIN PLC
HVO HVIVO
ABDP AB DYNAMICS
CARD CARD FACTORY
DOM DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC
OCI OAKLEY CAPITAL INVESTMENTS
RMG ROYAL MAIL PLC
CTEC CONVATEC GROUP PLC
IAG IAG
SSPG SSP GROUP PLC
TRN TRAINLINE PLC
TRR TRIDENT ROYALTIES
- Liberum Research Team
- Liberum Research Team
- Liberum Research Team
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Centamin - Sell in March and come back again when opex saving...
We have revised our model in the light of the FY22 results, and for latest FY23 guidance. The guided FY23 AISC range is rather higher than we expected, and we have rebased our post-FY23 AISC profile accordingly. Our valuations drop significantly; and FY23 and FY24 divi yields appear paltry. Our updated target price and rating are 94p and SELL (prior to temporary suspension: 119p, BUY). Investors should take advantage of the recent share price recovery to exit, possibly re-entering later in the y...
- Liberum Research Team
- Liberum Research Team
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Centamin - Sell in March and come back again when opex saving...
We have revised our model in the light of the FY22 results, and for latest FY23 guidance. The guided FY23 AISC range is rather higher than we expected, and we have rebased our post-FY23 AISC profile accordingly. Our valuations drop significantly; and FY23 and FY24 divi yields appear paltry. Our updated target price and rating are 94p and SELL (prior to temporary suspension: 119p, BUY). Investors should take advantage of the recent share price recovery to exit, possibly re-entering later in the y...
Centamin: 1 director
A director at Centamin bought 99,314 shares at 101p and the significance rating of the trade was 72/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing C...
- Liberum Research Team
- Liberum Research Team
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Centamin - FY22 essentially in-line; FY23: no minimum divi co...
Relative to our last published forecasts (29 Nov’22), FY22 production was 1% lower, while unit AISC (all-in sustaining costs) of US$1,794/oz was 2% higher. EBITDA was bang in-line, net profit was slightly (4%) ahead, but EPS was 56% down (due to Centamin having guided for zero minority-attributable profit). The balance sheet remains very strong, and the final divi was in-line. However, unlike in 2021 and 2022, there does not appear to be a committed minimum dividend for 2023. We temporarily susp...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.