Positive trend shift

Share up on Q1 beat

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Quality, growth and forest values

The main appeal of SCA in our view is its backward-integrated business, with its own forests supplying about 50% of its wood and fibre needs. With the stock priced at a record-high discount to the value of its own forestry business at the same time that SCA offers earnings growth and trades at attractive multiples on our forecasts, we continue to see a compelling investment case. We reiterate our BUY and SEK160 target price.

In line, but a stronger SEK hurts

Q1 EBITDA in-lne

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK31.00) - FX affecting estimates

We forecast muted growth in Q1, similar to what we saw in Q4. There is no updated consensus, but we are 1% below post-Q4 consensus on gross profit and 4% above on EBITDA. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK31 (33).

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Resilient earnings in harsh markets

Given overall deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, combined with worsened FX, we have made significant 15–13% cuts to our 2025–2026e EBITDA. Still, due to the unique backward-integrated business model enabling exceptionally favourable production costs versus most peers, SCA is set to report healthy earnings even in a harsh economic environment. With the stock valued far below our SOTP of SEK240, we see excellent entry points in a unique, quality company. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our...

Low valuation on low expectations - BUY

Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

Alvotech (No_rec, TP: USD) - Updated medium-term targets

Q4 sales were stronger than we forecast, and adj. EBITDA was a tad higher. However, the adj. EBITDA margin was below consensus (most likely due to lower-than-expected milestones and higher product sales). For 2025, our revenue and adj. EBITDA forecasts are at the upper end of the guidance. We do not have a recommendation or target price for Alvotech given DNB Markets’ role in the transaction with Xbrane Biopharma.

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

Alvotech (No_rec, TP: USD) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn

Alvotech announced this morning that it is to acquire Xbrane Biopharma’s rights to pipeline project XB003 (biosimilar to Cimzia), and its R&D facilities and personnel in Stockholm, forming the base of its new Swedish biosimilar drug development centre. The deal is pending Xbrane Biopharma shareholder approval. Given DNB Markets’ role in the transaction, we have withdrawn our recommendation and target price.

January: Pulp shipments +6.2% y-o-y

Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA: 1 director

A director at Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA bought 5,000 shares at 150.029SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK33.00) - Another solid cash-flow quarter

Sinch beat consensus on Q4 EBITDA and cash flow. As the deviation to our forecasts was lower, we have made limited estimate revisions. We have also included a cash payment of the SEK700m tax provision, resulting in lower cash flow in 2025–2026e. We reiterate our BUY and SEK33 target price.

Small improvements enough at current value

Better-than-expected Q4

Where did that come from?

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK33.00) - Exiting a year without growth

2024 was a year of transformation to a new organisational structure. Sinch saw muted growth, and we expect similar in the Q4 report. With consensus cautious and share buy-backs potentially announced, we still see a positive risk/reward. We reiterate our BUY and SEK33 target price.