Sector Update | Banking The Sumatra floods have caused severe local disruptions and exacted a tragic humanitarian toll, resulting in a GDP drag of 0.1% in 4Q25. Banking-system exposure is modest at 5% of loans, with near-term pressure concentrated in micro and SME borrowers. Provisioning may rise slightly in 1Q26 but remains manageable given strong sector buffers. Exposure varies across banks, with BRIS and BBRI being the most affected. Despite short-term noise, the event does not alter the sect...
Economics | Directive Approach, Structural Limits: Assessing Indonesia's New Forex Proceed Rules Indonesia's 2026 revision of its export proceeds (DHE) rules mandates that all export earnings be placed exclusively in state-owned banks, while cutting the rupiah conversion limit to 50%. This state-directed strategy aims to mechanically boost forex reserves and stabilise the onshore currency market. However, it risks distorting the banking sector, creating liabilities for state banks and squeezing ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
Greater China Company Results | ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$83.85/Target: HK$104.00) ASMPT’s 3Q25 print missed expectations on a weaker product mix and one-off restructuring costs. Revenue was largely in line with the mid-point of its guidance, but gross margin was below expectations at 35.7% due to changes in product mix and inventory write-off from the restructuring. Nevertheless, ASMPT reported solid progress with TCB in both HBM4 and advanced logic C2W/C2S, while its mainstream tools continued to r...
Company Results | Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp3,930/Target: Rp4,250) BBRI posted a 15.1% qoq rise in 3Q25 net profit to Rp15.4t on lower provisions and stronger non-interest income, with 9M25 earnings in line at 74% of our forecast. Loan growth re-accelerated to 6.3% yoy, supported by consumer and corporate lending, while micro remained subdued but is guided to recover starting from 2026. Asset quality pressures have peaked, with write-offs and restructuring trending down and CASA risin...
Company Results | Archi Indonesia (ARCI IJ/BUY/Rp1,185 /Target: Rp2,050) ARCI booked US$36m net profit in 3Q25 (+44.8% qoq), driven by higher gold ASP (US$3,508/oz; +46% yoy) and production (37,000 oz; +27.6% yoy), bringing 9M25 profit to US$70m, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY, with a target price of Rp2,050, as we expect sustained high ASP and upside from reserve upgrades and the Kopra underground project. Company Results | Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp3,930/Target: Rp4,250) BBRI...
Strategy | JCI Down on MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology The JCI fell 1.87% after MSCI proposed changes to free float calculation, triggering selling of large caps, especially conglomerate-theme stocks. The proposal implies higher free float thresholds for most MSCI EM Indonesian stocks, raising exclusion risks for some constituents. The methodology remains under consultation, with outcomes dependent on feedback and MSCI's final review by 31 Dec 25. Re-iterate our preference for big-cap lagg...
Strategy | JCI Down on MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology The JCI fell 1.87% after MSCI proposed changes to free float calculation, triggering selling of large caps, especially conglomerate-theme stocks. The proposal implies higher free float thresholds for most MSCI EM Indonesian stocks, raising exclusion risks for some constituents. The methodology remains under consultation, with outcomes dependent on feedback and MSCI's final review by 31 Dec 25. Re-iterate our preference for big-cap lagg...
There has been a positive US$194m mtd equity inflow, reversing last year’s persistent outflow, although banks remain the largest source of foreign selling as flows rotate toward gold and MSCI-linked names. Domestically, sentiment is turning more constructive for 4Q25-2026, supported by fiscal acceleration, pro-growth policies, monetary easing, and improving banking liquidity. If macro conditions stabilise, we see market leadership shifting from flow-driven to earnings-driven performance. We add ...
Strategy | Tactical Rotation to Big Cap Laggards There has been a positive US$194m mtd equity inflow, reversing last year’s persistent outflow, although banks remain the largest source of foreign selling as flows rotate toward gold and MSCI-linked names. Domestically, sentiment is turning more constructive for 4Q25-2026, supported by fiscal acceleration, pro-growth policies, monetary easing, and improving banking liquidity. If macro conditions stabilise, we see market leadership shifting from fl...
Greater China Company Results | Fuyao Glass (3606 HK/BUY/ HK$67.50/Target: HK$105.00) Fuyao Glass’ 3Q25 earnings miss stems from its margins, dragged by the US division and higher effective tax rate. Revenue grew 19% yoy on 11% sales volume growth and 7% ASP hike. Based on the lower margins, we trim our 2025-27 net profit forecasts by 5%/3%/2% to Rmb9.61b/Rmb10.98b/Rmb12.71b respectively, implying 19% CAGR. Earnings prospects remain positive on overseas market share gains, optimisation of pr...
Greater China Sector Update | Internet The growing robotaxi ecosystem is drawing in an increasing number of new entrants, including autonomous service providers and ride-hailing platforms. We expect technological maturity, policy support, and better fleet economics to drive a major expansion wave for the robotaxi industry into 2H25/2026, with China’s robotaxi fleet size expected to grow ten-fold during this period. We see material development and monetisation progress of Robotaxi, sparking r...
Highlights • Kopdes is policy-driven but earnings-light, with an estimated 1% ROA before tax and credit costs (vs SOE banks’ >2% ROA); impact remains immaterial at Rp16t but will become more meaningful and riskier as disbursement scales up. • Governance risk is high, and while DigiKop and Task Force may enhance transparency and reduce misuse, failure to strengthen oversight could lead to elevated credit risk, profit erosion, and deeper ROA dilutions. • Maintain OVERWEIGHT, with accelerating loan...
Sector Update | Banking The government has launched the Rp16t Kopdes scheme through SOE banks at a fixed 6% lending rate to support cooperatives. While framed as inclusive financing, Kopdes is structurally earnings-light, generating about 1% ROA (vs >2% for SOE banks). The impact is negligible at the current scale, but dilution risk will rise if allocations expand without stronger credit discipline. Oversight via DigiKop and the joint task force is directionally positive, though execution remain...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
Highlights • Earnings momentum remained soft, with 8M25 net profit declining 9.9% yoy as PPOP fell 4.4% yoy and interest income grew only 1.1% despite a 5.8% loan growth. • Loan growth has re-accelerated modestly since Mar 25, led by the corporate and consumer segments, but micro loans remain in contraction, keeping CoC elevated at 3.2%. • Maintain HOLD with an unchanged target price of Rp4,250. We arrived at a fair P/B of 1.9x, based on ROE of 18%, growth of 5%, and cost of equity of 11.6%. Its...
Company Update | Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/HOLD/Rp3,900/Target: Rp4,250) BBRI’s 8M25 earnings fell 9.9% yoy to Rp32.6t as PPOP declined 4.4% yoy, weighed by lower yields and higher opex, while CoC stayed elevated at 3.2%. Loan growth re-accelerated modestly to +5.8% yoy, led by corporate and consumer, but micro loans remained in contraction. We maintain HOLD with an unchanged target price of Rp4,250; a dividend yield of 7.9% provides downside support. Technical Analysis Sumber Alfaria Trij...
Indonesia Company Update | Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/HOLD/Rp3,900/Target: Rp4,250) BBRI’s 8M25 earnings fell 9.9% yoy to Rp32.6t as PPOP declined 4.4% yoy, weighed by lower yields and higher opex, while CoC stayed elevated at 3.2%. Loan growth re-accelerated modestly to +5.8% yoy, led by corporate and consumer, but micro loans remained in contraction. We maintain HOLD with an unchanged target price of Rp4,250; a dividend yield of 7.9% provides downside support. Malaysia Sector Update | Ban...
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