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Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Increased supply

Good growth due to warm waters and reduced biological challenges have resulted in a material uptick in standing biomass and a favourable supply outlook. We have raised our 2025e YOY harvest growth to 7.1% (5.0%), driven by Norway, which we now expect to grow 6.9% (3.6%) YOY. We have cut our 2025–2027e spot prices to EUR7.2 (7.5) and EUR7.6 (7.8), corresponding to NOK84–89/kg. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 13–9% and reiterate our neutral view on the sector, expecting sideways movement until s...

Ola Trovatn
  • Ola Trovatn

Arctic Fish (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Neutral Q4 report

Q4 operating EBIT of EUR2.1m was in line with the pre-announced number in the trading update, as was the harvest volume of 3.5kt and the EBIT/kg margin of EUR0.61. The biological trend and growth in Q4 evolved as expected, according to the company, and quarterly price achievement was strong at 109% of the reference price. The 2025 volume guidance of 15kt was unchanged and it was a positive that, according to management, it has secured sufficient smolt capacity to reach its 25kt harvest by 2029 t...

Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Foot off the gas

Improving farming KPIs and recovering demand have raised share prices over the past six months, but we now see a more neutral risk/reward. While we view the valuations as generally attractive, consensus EPS growth is 35–76% for 2025 and 9–28% for 2026 on moderately increasing salmon spot prices. We find the most valuation support in Lerøy Seafood’s ‘self-help’ story and Salmon Evolution as a re-rating case. We now take a more neutral sector stance.

Ola Trovatn
  • Ola Trovatn

Arctic Fish (Buy, TP: NOK85.00) - Softer spot price in Q4, major large...

We expect Q4 operating EBIT of EUR3.2m (no reliable consensus), which corresponds to an EBIT/kg margin of EUR0.99 based on a harvest volume of 3.2kt, in line with the guidance given at Q3. Ahead of the report, we have only made minor adjustments to our realised price and cost assumptions. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK85 (80) on higher peer valuation.

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