The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).
Good growth due to warm waters and reduced biological challenges have resulted in a material uptick in standing biomass and a favourable supply outlook. We have raised our 2025e YOY harvest growth to 7.1% (5.0%), driven by Norway, which we now expect to grow 6.9% (3.6%) YOY. We have cut our 2025–2027e spot prices to EUR7.2 (7.5) and EUR7.6 (7.8), corresponding to NOK84–89/kg. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 13–9% and reiterate our neutral view on the sector, expecting sideways movement until s...
Q4 operating EBIT of EUR2.1m was in line with the pre-announced number in the trading update, as was the harvest volume of 3.5kt and the EBIT/kg margin of EUR0.61. The biological trend and growth in Q4 evolved as expected, according to the company, and quarterly price achievement was strong at 109% of the reference price. The 2025 volume guidance of 15kt was unchanged and it was a positive that, according to management, it has secured sufficient smolt capacity to reach its 25kt harvest by 2029 t...
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