reports
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Ola Trovatn
Arctic Fish (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Operational progress and strong 2025...
Q3 operating EBIT of EUR0.9m was in line with the pre-announced figure in the trading update. With a harvest volume of 3.4kt, the EBIT/kg margin was EUR0.27. The price achievement in Q3 was solid at 107% of the reference price, driven by good average harvest weight and strong superior share. The biological development and growth are stated to have remained steady. The 2024 volume guidance was edged up by 0.3kt to 10.4kt, while 2025 was strong at 15kt (+44 YOY). We reiterate our BUY and NOK80 tar...
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
Lower prices and costs
We remain positive on the sector, as we still find the valuation supportive at 2025–2026e P/E’s of 13-11x, with SalMar and Mowi as our top picks. For our 2025–2026 sector forecasts, we have increased global supply by 30–40kt on 3–4% growth, noting high regulatory risk in some regions, but have reduced our spot prices by EUR0.2/kg to EUR7.7–7.9/kg. We have also reduced production costs by NOK1.5–3.5/kg on prevailing feed input prices, and cut our 2025e EPS by 7% but raised 2026e by 6%.
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Ola Trovatn
Arctic Fish (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Supportive CMD targets
We expect Q3 operating EBIT of EUR1.4m (consensus EUR1.7m), which corresponds to an EBIT/kg margin of EUR0.42 (consensus EUR0.54) based on harvest volume of 3.3kt (consensus 3.2kt). For 2025 we expect the company to guide for 13.0kt (consensus 12.1kt). As part of Mowi’s CMD, it outlined its 25kt harvest target by 2029, in line with our DCF assumptions. We find the road map and guide to long-term trajectory supportive, and reiterate our BUY and NOK80 target price.
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
Introduction to the salmon sector
This report provides an overview of the dynamics, companies, history, challenges and opportunities of the salmon farming industry. Biological challenges and stricter regulations over the past decade have curbed the supply of salmon, a globally consumed product with a strong ESG angle. Significant infrastructure investments made by the companies to solve these challenges have not yet yielded materially higher supply, leading to continued high salmon prices. Despite higher EBIT margins the sector ...
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
Lower tax proposed
The largest opposition party (Høyre) has launched a new draft proposal for its next parliamentary election programme. One of the suggestions is a lower and less bureaucratic resource tax. In the event of a 15% resource tax (down from 25%), we calculate the following preliminary 2025–2026e EPS impacts on the companies we cover: Grieg Seafood (15%), SalMar (12%), Lerøy Seafood (9%), Måsøval (8%), Mowi (7%), and Bakkafrost (0%). While this is only a proposal, we believe it will likely materially li...
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Ola Trovatn
Arctic Fish (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Uneventful Q2
Q2 operating EBIT of EUR2.3m was in line with the pre-announced figure in the trading update. With a harvest volume of 1.3kt, EBIT/kg was EUR1.82. The price achieved versus the reference price was strong at 102%, likely helped by timing, size and high superior share. Biological performance was stated to be relatively good, with steady growth, an improved average harvest weight, and a high superior share. The 2024 volume guidance of 10.1kt was unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and NOK80 target pric...
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
Time to go fishing again
While the soft demand of recent months now seems to have turned a corner, the supply outlook remains muted. Input costs have declined slowly, and valuations are 13–23% below 10-year and 5-year averages, suggesting it is time to become more positive on the sector. The recent soft demand has led us to lower our EUR/kg spot price forecasts, but the weaker NOK has compensated. We have therefore adjusted our 2025–2026e EPS up by 1% and are still in line with consensus. Mowi and Grieg Seafood remain o...
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
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