Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Strong start to '25

Q1: EBIT 4% above on better pelagics

Short-term pain, long-term gain

Another step-up in Peruvian volumes

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor bought shares in EQT for the first time since its 2019 IPO; 2) ahead of Kinnevik’s 12 May AGM, we highlight the return of Cristina Stenbeck as chair and the potential for share buybacks at a 40% discount to NAV; and 3) Lundbergs bought shares in its existing holdings for SEK512m.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we lowered our target price for Latour to SEK300 (340) following a Q1 report with a slight NAV decline but strong organic order intake growth; 2) Investor bought 6.3m Ericsson shares, and we highlight its successful top-ups in the name; 3) insider purchases at Investor are in our view a signal to look beyond a relatively small discount to NAV; and 4) Flat Capital reported Q1 NAV down 1% QOQ.

Latour (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Orders the key positive

Q1 saw solid acquisition-driven sales growth in Industrial Operations but with currency movements putting pressure on profitability; organic order intake growth was 10% YOY, supporting the near-term outlook, and the earnings call left us with a positive impression on the demand situation despite the ongoing uncertainty. We find Latour well placed to pass on the cost of potential tariffs to customers and see margin upside potential from the improved cost base once markets improve. We reiterate ou...

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

New Wave Group (Buy, TP: SEK138.00) - Good stable start to 2025

New Wave Group continued to perform well against a weak retail backdrop, seeing accelerating organic growth in its Q1 with operating leverage. Its rebalanced sourcing platform over the last few years is now a strong risk mitigator in the current tariff turbulence and a competitive advantage, in our view. Solid FCF and financials suggest the company has ample resources to drive its organic initiatives (US/Canada in high focus), potential M&A, and shareholder-friendly capital allocations. We reite...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we lowered our target price in Investor to SEK320 following a 9% write-down of Patricia Industries in its Q1 report; 2) we reduced our target price in Kinnevik to SEK100 to reflect macroeconomic headwinds, but remain positive ahead of Cristina Stenbeck’s return as chair; 3) we cut our VEF target price to SEK2.5 on FX movements and see re-rating potential from e.g. ongoing buybacks; and 4) we lowered our target price in Flerie to SEK57 given worsening funding ...

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Time to revisit

The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).