Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Kinnevik seeks a buyback mandate and proposes two new board members ahead of its EGM; 2) we met VEF’s and Creditas’ CEOs in Stockholm; and 3) Flerie is set to present at our Healthcare Conference in Oslo next week.

Pelagic positivity

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Bure reported Q3 results, outperforming the SIXRX by more than 5%-points; 2) VEF’s largest holding, Creditas, reported Q3 numbers, with origination improving 17% QOQ ahead of a profitable growth reacceleration and potential listing; 3) Apotea (10% of Creades’ unlisted assets) announced its intention to go public before year-end; and 4) Kinnevik’s chair is set to step down in 2025.

Q3: 17% EBIT-miss as weak LSG offsets pelagic beat

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

New Wave Group (Buy, TP: SEK126.00) - Continued short-term pain in Q3

New Wave Group performed relatively well in Q3 against a still-weak retail backdrop, but future growth initiatives continued to burden short-term results, with Q3 EBIT 15% below our forecast. We have cut our 2024–2026e EPS by 12–4%. Strong FCF and financials suggest the company has ample resources to drive its organic initiatives, potential M&A, and shareholder-friendly capital allocations. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK126 (130).

Latour Investment AB: 1 director

A director at Latour Investment AB bought 1,100 shares at 277.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Latour reported c9% NAV growth QOQ in Q3, outperforming the SIXRX, while the premium to our NAV is now only 2%; 2) Aker raised its dividend payout policy to 4–6% of NAV, giving it the sector’s highest dividend yield; and 3) Bure is due to report its Q3 results tomorrow, 8 November.

Latour (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - In a good place ahead of 2025e

Q3 saw solid NAV growth from Latour of 9% QOQ versus SIXRX at 4%. While the lower demand levels may remain for a few more quarters, Latour’s Industrial Operations show pockets of solid momentum. The margin resilience and the return of significant acquisitions should pave the way for solid earnings growth when the demand picture improves over the coming quarters, as we expect. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK335 (332), based on: 1) 10% NAV growth from its listed portfo...

Arctic Fish (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Operational progress and strong 2025...

Q3 operating EBIT of EUR0.9m was in line with the pre-announced figure in the trading update. With a harvest volume of 3.4kt, the EBIT/kg margin was EUR0.27. The price achievement in Q3 was solid at 107% of the reference price, driven by good average harvest weight and strong superior share. The biological development and growth are stated to have remained steady. The 2024 volume guidance was edged up by 0.3kt to 10.4kt, while 2025 was strong at 15kt (+44 YOY). We reiterate our BUY and NOK80 tar...

Austevoll Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK123.00) - Peruvian comeback continues

We expect Q3 EBITDA of NOK1,362m, 4% above consensus of NOK1,306m (results due at 07:00 CET on 14 November). Our forecasts are NOK10m–30m below consensus EBITDA for Lerøy and Pelagia, while we are NOK19m–26m above for Austral, Foodcorp and Br. Birkeland. We have slightly changed our estimates, and reiterate our BUY and NOK123 target price.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) VNV Global wrote down its unlisted portfolio by 3% QOQ in its Q3 report, as its Gett sale remains under regulatory review; 2) starting in this issue, we include Spiltan Invest in our sector overview (SEK9.2bn NAV with the key asset being Paradox Interactive); and 3) Latour is set to report Q3 results next week.

Choppy waters, but the tide is rising

Peruvian volume boost offsets lower prices

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Lower prices and costs

We remain positive on the sector, as we still find the valuation supportive at 2025–2026e P/E’s of 13-11x, with SalMar and Mowi as our top picks. For our 2025–2026 sector forecasts, we have increased global supply by 30–40kt on 3–4% growth, noting high regulatory risk in some regions, but have reduced our spot prices by EUR0.2/kg to EUR7.7–7.9/kg. We have also reduced production costs by NOK1.5–3.5/kg on prevailing feed input prices, and cut our 2025e EPS by 7% but raised 2026e by 6%.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) our deep dive into Kinnevik’s ‘core growth companies’; 2) our lowered target price of SEK105 for Kinnevik, following the Q3 results; 3) our raised target price of SEK330 for Investor; 4) our lowered target price of SEK375 for Industrivärden; and 5) our reduced target price of SEK68 for Flerie.