reports
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Emmanuel Matot
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Konrad Zomer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024
Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...
LHN LAFARGEHOLCIM LTD.
REL RELX PLC
GET GETLINK SE
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
CA CARREFOUR SA
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
ORA ORANGE SA
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
ULVR UNILEVER PLC
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
NESN NESTLE S.A.
ENI ENI S.P.A.
BAS BASF SE
SAN SANOFI
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
SY1 SYMRISE AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
KGX KION GROUP AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
IBE IBERDROLA SA
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
ADYEN ADYEN NV
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Emmanuel Matot
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Konrad Zomer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024
Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...
LHN LAFARGEHOLCIM LTD.
REL RELX PLC
GET GETLINK SE
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
CA CARREFOUR SA
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
ORA ORANGE SA
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
ULVR UNILEVER PLC
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
NESN NESTLE S.A.
ENI ENI S.P.A.
BAS BASF SE
SAN SANOFI
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
SY1 SYMRISE AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
KGX KION GROUP AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
IBE IBERDROLA SA
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
ADYEN ADYEN NV
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Michelin : Start to the year broadly in line
>Q1 sales in line, volumes down sharply, price/mix still positive - Yesterday after trading, Michelin reported Q1 2024 sales of € 6,642m, down 5% (-3% at constant exchange rates), broadly in line with expectations (€ 6,679m, ODDO BHF € 6,613m). As expected, volumes were down at the start of the year (-4.1%, consensus -3.4%), even though they already showed a clear sequential improvement (-7.4% in Q4 2023), while the price/mix component remained robust (+0.7% vs consen...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Michelin : Un début d’année conforme aux prévisions
>CA T1 en ligne, volumes en nette baisse, prix/mix toujours positif - Michelin a publié, hier soir, un CA T1 2024 de 6 642 M€ en baisse de 5% (-3% hors devises), en ligne avec les attentes (6 679 M€, ODDO BHF 6 613 M€). Comme attendu, l’impact volumes est ressorti négatif en ce début d’année (-4.1%, consensus à -3.4%), toutefois en net progrès séquentiel (-7.4% au T4 2023), et le prix/mix est resté robuste (+0.7% vs consensus à +0.4%), le mix (+1.6%) compensant l’effe...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Maissa Keskes
- Stephane Houri
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
EDEN EDENRED SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
ABB ABB LTD.
SW SODEXO SA
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
AMUN AMUNDI SA
OR L'OREAL SA
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
EZJ EASYJET PLC
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Bruno Cavalier
- Maissa Keskes
- Stephane Houri
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
EDEN EDENRED SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
ABB ABB LTD.
SW SODEXO SA
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
AMUN AMUNDI SA
OR L'OREAL SA
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
EZJ EASYJET PLC
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Michelin : March volumes weaker as expected, but not worse
>Weak March volumes data already largely flagged, April looking better - Overall, weak volumes were largely expected last month, notably because of the lower number of working days (up to 2 days less) and high comps. It has also been flagged by Continental earlier this week but the German tyre maker however added that April was looking considerably stronger. Regarding Michelin, and as we also expect some weakness in specialty, we aim for volumes down 4.2% in Q1 (vs c...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Michelin : March volumes weaker as expected, but not worse
>Weak March volumes data already largely flagged, April looking better - Overall, weak volumes were largely expected last month, notably because of the lower number of working days (up to 2 days less) and high comps. It has also been flagged by Continental earlier this week but the German tyre maker however added that April was looking considerably stronger. Regarding Michelin, and as we also expect some weakness in specialty, we aim for volumes down 4.2% in Q1 (vs c...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/20/2024
We are upgrading the energy sector to Overweight vs Neutral (excluding Oil Services, already on Overweight). The recent rebound in oil prices is set to continue, driven by short, medium and long-term factors: value, cyclical, little debt and good shareholder returns. Technical analysis reveals a strong trend that is only just beginning. GALP enters our Large Caps list; CellNex exits it. - ...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 20/03/2024
Nous upgradons le secteur énergie à Surpondérer vs Neutre (hors Oil Services déjà à Surpondérer). Le rebond récent des prix du pétrole va se poursuivre, soutenu par des facteurs à court, moyen et long terme. Le secteur dispose en outre de 4 atouts dans la configuration de marché actuelle : value, cyclique, peu endetté et bon retour à l’actionnaire. L’analyse technique révèle une tendance forte qui ne fait que commencer. GALP fait son entrée dans notre liste Large Caps ; CellNex en so...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Michelin : February volumes confirm improving volumes momentum vs Q4 t...
>Reassuring monthly figures, confirming the better start to the year volumes wise - Overall, excluding the exceptional month in China linked to the timing of the New Year this year (February vs January in 2023), we see these monthly figures as reassuring and confirming a likely better momentum this year. As a reminder, Michelin management based its FY financial outlook on a stable market scenario in the middle of the range (-2%/+2% in the three segments), which points...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Michelin : February volumes confirm improving volumes momentum vs Q4 t...
>Reassuring monthly figures, confirming the better start to the year volumes wise - Overall, excluding the exceptional month in China linked to the timing of the New Year this year (February vs January in 2023), we see these monthly figures as reassuring and confirming a likely better momentum this year. As a reminder, Michelin management based its FY financial outlook on a stable market scenario in the middle of the range (-2%/+2% in the three segments), which points...
- Anthony Dick
- Marc Lavaud
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Maxime Kogge
- Michael Foundoukidis
ODDO : Véhicules électriques : d’un excès à l’autre ?
Le momentum autour de l’électrification, moins favorable dernièrement, a conduit à un changement profond de perception, passant d’un optimisme sans doute excessif à un pessimisme qui le semble tout autant. En effet, si nous avons revu en baisse nos hypothèses, nous visons néanmoins toujours une croissance dans les années à venir (y compris cette année), bien supérieure à celle du marché automobile dans son ensemble. Face à ces changements, tous les acteurs au sein de la chaîne de...
INFINEON INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
EO FAURECIA SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
FR VALEO SE
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
ERA ERAMET SA
SHA SCHAEFFLER AG
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
MELE MELEXIS NV
LIVS AUTOLIV INC. SDR
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
VTSC VITESCO TECHNOLOGIES GRP AG
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
- Anthony Dick
- Marc Lavaud
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Maxime Kogge
- Michael Foundoukidis
ODDO : Electric vehicles: from one extreme to another?
With momentum around electrification less favourable of late, we have seen a major shift in perception, from doubtless overly rose-tinted optimism to what looks to be similarly excessive pessimism. While we have reduced our BEV assumptions, we nonetheless still anticipate growth in the next few years (including this year), well ahead of that of the automotive market as a whole. In the face of these changes, the players in the value chain (mines, semiconductors, auto) are differen...
INFINEON INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
EO FAURECIA SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
FR VALEO SE
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
ERA ERAMET SA
SHA SCHAEFFLER AG
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
MELE MELEXIS NV
LIVS AUTOLIV INC. SDR
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
VTSC VITESCO TECHNOLOGIES GRP AG
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
- Fabian Semon
- Fabian Semon
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Michelin : Conviction further strengthened
>H2 much better than expected, conservative guidance as always and € 1bn SBB - Michelin’s Q4/H2 2023 earnings substantially beat expectations (+9% for EBIT H2, +10% for FCF) despite a sharp decline in volumes (-7.4% in Q4), still more than offset by the price/mix – which was better (+1.5%) – and thanks to better performances in passenger tyres and trucks which more than offset greater weakness in specialties. In terms of the outlook, the group nonetheless remains cons...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Michelin : Conviction positive encore renforcée
>S2 bien meilleur qu’attendu, guidance prudente comme toujours et SBB de 1 Md€ - Les résultats T4/S2 2023 sont ressortis nettement supérieurs aux attentes (+9% sur l’EBIT S2, +10% sur le FCF) malgré un recul plus fort des volumes (-7.4% au T4), toujours plus que compensé par un prix/mix, lui, meilleur (+1.5%) et à la faveur de meilleures performances dans le tourisme et le poids lourd qui ont plus que compensé une faiblesse plus prononcée dans les spécialités. En term...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 01/19/2024
We initiate coverage on Elia Group with an Underperform recommendation and see short-term downside in the stock of 8-9%. Although the company is perfectly positioned to benefit from the required massive upgrades in European electricity grids, its government regulated returns (RoE to remain around 7.5%) in our view are too low to defend its premium valuation, especially in light of the funding requirements for its € 30+bn capex plan. We also have our doubts on the shareholder structure...
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
HAL HAL TRUST
EOAN E.ON SE
ENI ENI S.P.A.
BAS BASF SE
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
REP REPSOL SA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
AM DASSAULT AVIATION
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 19/01/2024
We initiate coverage on Elia Group with an Underperform recommendation and see short-term downside in the stock of 8-9%. Although the company is perfectly positioned to benefit from the required massive upgrades in European electricity grids, its government regulated returns (RoE to remain around 7.5%) in our view are too low to defend its premium valuation, especially in light of the funding requirements for its € 30+bn capex plan. We also have our doubts on the shareholder structure...
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
HAL HAL TRUST
EOAN E.ON SE
ENI ENI S.P.A.
BAS BASF SE
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
REP REPSOL SA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
AM DASSAULT AVIATION
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
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