EM & Japanese Telcos have more DC capacity than those in other regions. In this short note, we look at the current and future Data Center (DC) capacity for the telcos in our coverage as well as the potential valuation for these assets, in an attempt to contextualise this exposure.
Both KT and LG Uplus did better at SKT’s expense, with the latter impacted by Q2’s outflow and 50% discount offered in August as a result of April’s cyberattack. The search for KT’s new CEO narrowed to 3 candidates – 2 internal and 1 external; we should expect to hear the appointment by March’s AGM. Although this creates some risk, KT remains one of our Top Picks in GEM Telcos for its exposure to Enterprise and value-up dynamic.
EM Telco earnings season was extremely strong, and with 8 of our 10 picks reporting this month, our picks rose 6.8% on average in November and are now up 80% YTD. With Singtel having strongly outperformed, Bharti we swap the latter in for the former; this note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
KT printed a decent set of results; however, we think this was overshadowed by the search for its next CEO and news of the hacking incidents which have plagued the industry. Although the size of breach is on a much smaller scale compared to SK Telecom, ongoing investigations remain an overhang.
LG Uplus delivered a strong set of results as trends improved across the board. Service revenue topped expectations by 1%. The company recognised a one-off voluntary retirement cost which bodes well for future margins. Excluding the impact, underlying EBITDA would accelerate.
Our portfolio of Top Picks was higher again in October, and now up 69% ytd. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
We analyze how much revenue EM Telcos are generating from digital businesses, and therefore at what point they are likely to make the transition from being “Telcos with digital assets” to “Digital first”. We use this to predict when the market is likely to re-rate those exposed, and as a result make multiple upgrades across our GEM Telcos.
Numbers were in-line with expectations, but shares fell slightly today due to the absence of dividends this quarter, implying a dividend cut for the year. Nevertheless, with the overhang on the data breach fine removed and recovery now in progress, we think SKT’s valuation is compelling for investors who can look past this year. We therefore stay Buyers with a KRW 78k price target.
After 8 extremely strong months, September bucked the trend. 6 of our Top Picks saw profit taking with only Airtel Africa, Millicom, Telefonica Brasil and LILAC posting positive returns. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. Having strongly outperformed we switch out Millicom for AMX which we now see as a cheaper, lower risk, way to play Latin American telcos.
August was a rather eventful month for two of top picks as LILAC announced the Puerto Rican asset separation and Kyivstar, the Ukraine arm of VEON, successfully listed on the NASDAQ (see our initiation HERE). All of our top picks performed well again. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. We make our first change to the list, swapping TIM Brasil for Telefonica Brasil.
SKT underperformed in Q2 due to April’s cyberattack. As SKT’s Customer Appreciation Package is expected to cost KRW500bn (US$360m) coupled with the associated churn, SKT is expected to take a heavier hit in the second half. The government’s AI campaign should be supportive for telcos’ Enterprise operations, and we expect to see stronger Enterprise revenues in H2 too. KT remains one of our Top Picks in GEM Telcos for its exposure to Enterprise and focus on cost and capex discipline.
A director at LG Uplus maiden bought 20,000 shares at 14,717.573KRW and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
A director at SK Telecom Co Ltd sold 1,576 shares at 55,800.000KRW and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
Profitability rose sharply on lower labour costs and was partly boosted by a real estate gain, well-flagged previously. Despite ongoing restructuring to shed lower-margin businesses, service revenue trend inflected, driven by B2B and Fixed Line. As expected, operational metrics accelerated in Q2 due to the situation at SKT.
LG Uplus printed better numbers in Q2 as service revenue and earnings growth accelerated, putting it closer to its 6%-6.5% profit margin target by 2027. Importantly, capex spend continues to moderate which is supportive for cash flow and therefore shareholder remuneration. The company had instituted a KRW 80bn (USD50m) buyback back in July, ahead of our forecasts and translates to 5.7% shareholder remuneration yield on our estimates.
Results were weak as expected because of the churn from April data breach. However, the worst is yet to come since Q3 will be impacted by the 50% discount on monthly tariff that will be applied in August. There is still no news on the fine which creates an overhang although news outlet suggests it could be disclosed as early as this month. For now, we maintain our Neutral stance.
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