Q1/26 proved to be a challenging quarter for equity markets broadly, as macroeconomic uncertainty and risk-off sentiment weighed on indices across North America. The S&P 500 fell 4.7%, the TSXV declined 3.2%, and the TSX was up 2.7% thanks to its exposure to oil and gas. Against this backdrop, our coverage universe demonstrated relative resilience, up 4.3% on average during the quarter, meaningfully outperforming all three benchmarks. This represents the sixth consecutive quarter of outperforman...
What you need to know: • Precious metals pulled back sharply in March amid a liquidity-driven risk-off rotation, with gold down 12.1% and silver down 15.7%. • Mining equities declined alongside metals, with GDX down 20.8%, GDXJ down 23.2%, SILJ down 23.9%, and COPX down 20.4%, while the TSX fell 4.6% and the S&P 500 dropped 5.1%. • The Iran War drove elevated volatility and cautious sentiment across the space in the near-term, while Canada announced 30 new critical minerals partnerships unlocki...
What you need to know: • Mineros released an updated PFS on the Povenir Project outlining robust and improved economics with a NPV5% of $460M and IRR of 37.9% at a base case gold price of $3,150/oz. • The project NPV5% improves to $558M and $655M at gold prices of $3,465/oz and $3,780/oz, which remain conservative to spot pricing. • Importantly, updated resources highlight the district-scale potential of the Hemco property with several targets centred around Porvenir. • We are increasing our ta...
What you need to know: • MSA is acquiring 100% of a large gold exploration project in Tolima, Colombia, from AngloGold Ashanti for $10M cash plus up to $60M contingent payments. • The project hosts a historical resource of 23.3Moz Au Indicated and 5.0Moz Au Inferred, strengthening MSA’s project pipeline in Colombia, where it has a strong track record of operating. • We recently conducted our first management interview with new CEO Daniel Henao. To watch the full interview, click here. This mor...
What you need to know: • MSA reported material operational progress at Hemco (Nicaragua), achieving sustained plant throughput of 2,000tpd. • The plant expansion remains on schedule and on budget, targeting 2,200tpd by June 2026 and 2,500tpd by December 2026. • In addition, MSA has launched the most ambitious drill program in the Hemco property’s history (75,000m with eight active rigs) at a ~$60/metre cost advantage over contracted services. • We recently conducted our first management intervi...
What you need to know: • Precious metals recovered through February, with gold climbing back and silver stabilizing in the $90s following January’s late-month pullback, with all major metals remaining meaningfully higher on an LTM basis. • Mining equities significantly outperformed underlying metals, with the GDX (+23.0%), GDXJ (+25.7%), SILJ (+25.3%), and COPX (+12.9%), while the TSX delivered a standout +7.6% vs. the S&P 500’s -0.7%. • Critical minerals policy took a major step forward as th...
What you need to know: • MSA released record Q4 and 2025 financial results, highlighted by substantial YoY growth supported by rising metal prices. • Record Q4 and 2025 revenue of $260.7M and $799.7M displayed 74% and 48% YoY growth, respectively, facilitating record 2025 FCF of $138.6M, a 60% YoY increase. • The Company ended 2025 with $108M in cash, well-funding organic growth in 2026, while continuing to reward shareholders. • We are raising our target price to C$11.00/share following strong...
What you need to know: • MSA released strong 2026 production guidance of 213-233Koz aimed at optimizing near-term production to maximize FCF. • 2026 AISC is guided modestly higher YoY as the Company pivots its focus from steady state production to growth initiatives. • MSA will report Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results on February 18, followed by a conference call on February 19 at 9am ET. • The Company also guided its longer-term growth initiatives. This morning, Mineros S.A. (MSA:TSX, MI...
What you need to know: • Metals kicked off 2025 with explosive gains, as gold (+12.3%), silver (+17.6%), and copper (+4.4%) surged to fresh highs before late-month pullbacks, all finishing January meaningfully higher MoM. • Mining equities extended their outperformance, with the GDX (+9.9%), GDXJ (+9.1%), SILJ (+13.3%), and COPX (+18.0%) outperforming broader indices (S&P 500 +1.6%, TSX +0.6%). • Critical minerals remained a key focus, with uranium (+24.1%) breaking out on nuclear restocking an...
What you need to know: • Mineros reported Q4 production results with total gold production of 58.6Koz modestly ahead of our 55.1Koz forecast, including a December monthly record of 20.7Koz AuEq in Nicaragua. • Full-year 2025 production of 225.8koz AuEq included 221.7koz of gold at the top end of annual guidance (201-223Koz). • Strong production in the quarter was a result of improved throughput and higher-grade artisanal ores in Nicaragua, resulting in gold production of 35.8Koz versus our 33.8...
What you need to know: • 2025 marked a decisive breakout for metals, with silver and gold delivering roughly 9x and 4x the YTD return compared to the S&P 500, capped by December highs that saw gold hit a new all-time high. • Mining equities extended their strength in December, with the GDX (+3.1%), GDXJ (+4.1%), SILJ (+7.5%), and COPX (+11.5%) outperforming broader indices (S&P 500 -0.1%, TSX +1.1%). • The macro backdrop remains supportive, with markets pricing in aggressive U.S. rate cuts, a ~...
Q4/25 capped off a strong finish to the year for Atrium Research, as supportive commodity price trends and improving small-cap sentiment continued to drive performance across our coverage universe. Our covered stocks increased 21% on average during Q4/25 and are now up 170% over the past year, materially outperforming the TSX and TSXV, which gained 6% and 45% during the quarter, respectively, and 28% and 61% on a YoY basis. Performance was broad-based, with several names delivering outsized retu...
What you need to know: • Gold held strong in the low-$4,000/oz range (rising at the end of the month), silver extended its rally with an 18.5% increase, while copper capped off the month above $5.25/lb. • Mining equities rebounded sharply in November, with the GDX (+15.5%), GDXJ (+16.6%), SILJ (+16.7%), and COPX (+4.1%) massively outperforming broader indices (S&P 500 +0.4%, TSX +3.8%). • Policy momentum improved as the U.S. added copper and silver to its critical minerals list, G20 leaders opp...
What you need to know: • Mineros reported Q3 financial and operational results that beat our estimates across the board. • Revenue came in at $196.0M (+39% YoY) vs. our estimate of $175.6M while operating cashflow (after WC) came in at $77.3M vs. our estimate of $42.5M, led by the increased gold price. • MSA maintained its production and cost guidance for 2025. • We are increasing our target price based on the strong cashflow generated in the quarter and updated model assumptions. Yesterday, a...
What you need to know: • Gold reached new record highs above $4,300/oz before settling around $4,000/oz, while silver climbed for the sixth consecutive month. • Despite this rise in metal prices, mining equities underperformed, with the GDX down 5.7%, GDXJ down 5.5%, and SILJ down 7.3%, and COPX up 3.1%, compared to the S&P 500 (+2.5%) and TSX (+0.8%). • Geopolitical developments, including the U.S. $5B critical minerals fund, G7 stockpiling alliance, and Trump's new partnerships with Australi...
Q3/25 marked a particularly strong quarter for Atrium, as precious metal prices continued to rise rapidly, driving notable outperformance across our coverage. Our covered stocks increased 46% on average in Q3/25 and are up 227% over the past year, outperforming the TSX, which gained 12% during the quarter and 37% YoY, and TSXV, which gained 29% and 67%, respectively. This builds on the 27% increase from our coverage universe in Q2/25. Top performers from our coverage this quarter include Andean ...
What you need to know: • In September, gold rose 10.8% to approach $3,900/oz and silver surged 14.4% toward $46/oz, marking five straight months of gains. • Mining equities strongly outperformed, with GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, and COPX up 20.9%, 23.7%, 23.9%, and 20.1%, respectively, versus the S&P 500 (+3.4%) and TSX (+5.1%). • Sector momentum was reinforced by the Fed rate cut, record financing activity among juniors, and the announcement of the $53B Teck–Anglo American merger, the largest deal in ove...
What you need to know: • Mineros completed the $40M acquisition of La Pepa, securing full ownership of the advanced exploration project in Chile’s Maricunga Belt. • MSA is exploring debt financing as a non-dilutive path to fund growth, alongside its recently completed $12M share repurchase program. • Ramp-up of the new Aurora plant and recovery projects at Nechi are expected to boost throughput and support margins. • We are increasing our target price from C$4.00/share to C$5.50/share. Yest...
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