Post-Q1: rising fear creates opportunities

Alleima (Buy, TP: SEK110.00) - Good growth in the right places

We were encouraged by the Q1 report that showed ongoing good organic growth and a favourable mix along with solid operations. Given a strong leading market position in select areas within oil & gas, nuclear, and medical, we believe Alleima is well positioned for solid earnings despite a more uncertain macroeconomic environment, FX headwinds, and a possible economic slowdown. Due to our more positive view on top-line growth for the tube division, we have raised our underlying 2025–2026e EBITDA by...

Clouds on the horizon despite a strong Q1

Above on orders, org. growth, and adj. EBIT

Alleima (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Pricing power and excess cash

Reflecting overall deteriorating macro conditions and a worsened FX situation, we have cut our 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA by 7–13%. Nevertheless, with the majority of earnings from robust end-markets, underpinned by convincing megatrends, we find Alleima still looks set to generate attractive profits in most feasible scenarios. With the stock down c20% in the past month, our updated forecasts translate into attractive multiples, while we believe the company’s net cash position could facilitate bolt-...

Trough P/B multiples in prior cycles

Sector previews: A complex macro-cocktail

Estimate risk keeps us cautious

Re-rating case has played out

Q4 wrap: strong reports, stronger reactions

Share has more to give

Alleima (Buy, TP: SEK115.00) - Multi-year mix story is unfolding

Alleima’s Q4 report showed steady earnings margins and tailwinds in several key end-market segments including Medical and Nuclear, which we believe are key for long-term earnings growth. We have raised our 2025–2026e adj. EBIT by 2–3%, and feel increasingly confident in the multi-year story, with a steady mix shift prioritising lucrative niches, leading to a 14% 2024–2030e EBIT CAGR. We thus reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK115 (100).

Q4 slightly above, and a welcome SMR order

Positive signs for copper & zinc, none for steel

Continued stable performance in Q4e

Alleima - Initiation of coverage - Multi-year mix story in the making

Alleima is not a traditional steel company, but rather a niche product company manufacturing products from advanced stainless steel. Most of its end-markets are benefiting from structural growth, while its market-leading positions in prioritised end-segments offer superior profitability and above-group average demand growth prospects. Based on a steady mix shift towards prioritised lucrative niches, we estimate a 12% 2024–2030 EBIT CAGR. We find the balance sheet holding net cash and the valuati...

No major revisions after largely in-line Q3

Largely undramatic report

Re-rating warranted, but likely after soft Q3

Finding hidden value in Kanthal