reports
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PBK RO; THYAO TI; MIL PW; HUG PW
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: making progress, but still some way to go (stays HOLD) • Turkish Airlines: 8% ASK growth in 2024 NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 483m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: 4Q24 bookings up 7% qoq NEUTRAL
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
- Miguel Dias
Patria Bank: making progress, but still some way to go (stays HOLD)
We have updated and rolled forward our model on Patria Bank (PBK), maintaining our HOLD rating, but with a lower 12M price target (PT) of RON 0.090/share (9.3% upside), from RON 0.095/share. Although 2024E seems to have proven to be a more successful year than we expected previously, we believe it might be hard to replicate that success, and that 2025E might bring some bottom-line and profitability contraction, due to: 1) the still challenged macro backdrop, fuelled by fiscal consolidation, whic...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CEZ CP; WIZZ LN; MBK PW; MBR PW; WPL PW; HUG PW; TEN PW; 1...
HEADLINES: • CEZ: government may try to include support for coal plants in draft gas bill NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: extends compensation agreement with PW until YE26 NEUTRAL • mBank: sees PLN 907m of FX mortgage saga costs in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: update on increased fees in Wałbrzych for 2018 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: agrees to acquire Invia Group for c.EUR 240m POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: December bookings estimate jumps by 18% mom, to USD 13m POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: December bookings estimat...
CEZ CEZ AS
GWI GLOBALWORTH REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS LIMITED
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PPA PIRAEUS PORT AUTHORITY S.A.
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
TABAK PHILIP MORRIS CR AS
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
HUGE HUUUGE
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkiye rebounds, Romania declines
EME Equity Market – November 2024 Rebound in Türkiye, Romania hammered. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 3.8% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in November. The Turkish ISE30 recouped the losses of the previous month, adding 10.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX added 4.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the PX (+2.9% mom), the ASE (+0.8% mom) and the WIG (+0.8% mom) (all in EUR terms). Following the first round of presidential elections, and the polemic and uncertainty that ensued, the BET ...
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
RICHT RICHTER
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
R22 R22
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ILRA-R-A ILIRIJA D.D.
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
ONE CTP NV
GPP ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
KLKIM GRUPA PRACUJ DA
GIG KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
2381 GAMING INNOVATION GROUP
9526 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
ELPE JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
4071 HELLENIQ ENERGY
7203 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
AQ ELM CO
TRESTATES AQUILA PART PROD COM
AIRA TRADE ESTATES REIC SA
GEV AIR ASTANA JSC
BOCHGR GEVORKYAN A.S.
BANK OF CYPRUS
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ESLT IT; HUG PW; TEN PW; PCF PW; VGO PW; CDR PW; PGE PW; G...
HEADLINES: • Elbit Systems: HOLD, on valuation grounds (downgraded to HOLD) • Polish mobile game development: missing the growth, counting cash (Huuuge Games stays BUY, Ten Square Games stays HOLD) • PCF Group: 3Q24 EBIT in positive territory, above our and the market's expectations POSITIVE • VIGO Photonics: 3Q24 – miss on the adjusted EBITDA and bottom line NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: 3Q24 EBITDA 8% below our forecast, 5% above the consensus NEUTRAL • PGE: 3Q24 results fully in line with the prelim...
- Maria Mickiewicz
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
Polish Mobile Game Development: missing the growth, counting cash (Huu...
In this report, we maintain our BUY rating on Huuuge Games (HUG), with our 12M price target (PT) cut to PLN 24.8 (vs. PLN 34.6). For Ten Square Games (TEN), we reiterate our HOLD rating, having cut our 12M PT to PLN 83 (vs. PLN 100). On our revised down forecasts, both HUG and TEN offer significantly weaker earnings outlooks vs. their foreign peers (a 3Y adjusted EBITDA CAGR of -17% for HUG and -8% for TEN, vs. +6% for their peers, on the consensus). We mostly blame the low diversification (two ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: RO Oil & Gas; AKCNS TI; EME Macro/Strategy – Dividends; HU...
HEADLINES: • Romanian oil & gas: just have a little patience (OMV Petrom stays BUY, Romgaz downgraded to HOLD – transfer of coverage) • Akcansa: recovery on the horizon (stays BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: dividends in EMEA – if growth is in doubt, opt for payout • Huuuge Games: 3Q24 broadly in line with our expectations, slightly above the consensus NEUTRAL • Colt CZ Group SE: 3Q24 results – slow quarter; FY24E guidance confirmed NEUTRAL • Türkiye macro: CBT signals a dovish turn • Cyfrowy Polsat:...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BFT PW; PBK RO; CAR PW; FTSHP CP; AEGN GA; SFG RO; CBF PW;...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 3Q24 in line with our forecasts; solid trading update; 2025E outlook and 2025-27E strategy POSITIVE • Patria Bank: strong 3Q24 results POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 3Q24 EBITDA 1-4% below our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Footshop (NOT RATED): solid 3Q24; 2024E guidance boosted POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 – flat RASK, CASKX up 14%; 27% lower EBIT, on 4% lower ASK (in line) NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 3Q24 post-results webcast takeaways POSITIVE • cyber_Folks: ke...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ILRA CZ; MGROS TI; KLKIM TI; FROTO TI; TUPRS TI; THYAO TI;...
HEADLINES: • Ilirija d.d.: ADRs growth pace cools, cost inflation persists (NOT RATED) • Migros: good set of operating results in 3Q24 POSITIVE • Kalekim: strong bottom-line performance in 3Q24 POSITIVE • Ford Otosan: 3Q24 results – quarterly margin improvement tempered by lower export guidance NEUTRAL • Tupras: 3Q24 results – net income beats the consensus; comment on the fire at the Izmit refinery NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: 3Q24 – strong cargo and investments offset steep growth in staff cost...
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
ILRA-R-A ILIRIJA D.D.
CTPNV CTP NV
KLKIM KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
2381 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
SHO SHOPER SA
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Turkish Airlines: 3Q24 – strong cargo and investments off...
Turkish Airlines' 3Q24 results came in broadly in line with our estimates, but the numbers were a 4-5% beat vs. the consensus on the EBITDA and EBIT. The revenue was up 5% yoy, mirroring the capacity growth, as strong cargo yields offset slight weakness in the passenger yield (which was down 2.2% yoy, or 0.5% if excluding the currency impacts). The ex-fuel cask grew in the high teens, driven mainly by high personnel costs, as expected. The bottom line was stronger than both we and the consensus ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MTELEKOM HB; SHO PW; THYAO TI; CCOLA TI; TOASO TI; AIRA LI...
HEADLINES: • Magyar Telekom: another record strong year ahead (stays BUY) • Shoper: 3Q24 adjusted EBITDA up 28% yoy, broadly as expected NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: 3Q24 – EBIT and EBITDA in line with our estimates, 4-5% above the consensus POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: weak results in 3Q24, revenue growth guidance lowered NEGATIVE • Tofas: highly weak set of results in 3Q24 NEGATIVE • Air Astana Group: 3Q24 in line with our estimates NEUTRAL • Isbank: 3Q24 highlights – core bank still loss makin...
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
9526 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
SHO SHOPER SA
AIRA AIR ASTANA JSC
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: only the Czech Republic in the bla...
EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
R22 R22
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
KSPI KASPI KZ
INPST INPOST S.A.
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
AIRA AIR ASTANA JSC
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MIL PW; SPL PW; OMV AV; SNP RO; BDX PW; EUR PW
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: ambitious, but achievable, 2025-28E strategy implies a return to growth and more of a focus on the corporate segment POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: 3Q24 results in line; key focus on 2025-28E strategic update • Santander Bank Polska: posts solid 3Q24 profits, as NII peaks and FX mortgage saga costs are very low for the quarter • OMV: 3Q24 results – CCS EBIT in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q24 results in line with consensus NEUTRAL • Budimex: key takea...
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
WOOD Flash – Bank Millennium: ambitious, but achievable, 2025-28E stra...
Millennium has published its 2025-28E strategic targets, with a 2028E reported ROE of a minimum of 18%. Our current explicit forecasts for Bank Millennium end in 2026E and imply a headline ROE of 15.5% and an adjusted ROE of 20.7%, with headline 2026E net profit of PLN 1.44bn and adjusted net profit of PLN 1.94bn. It is hard to compare our current forecasts with the bank’s targets, which reach out two years ahead, but we believe that our 2024-26E forecasts lay out a sensible path to achieving a ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EMEA Airlines; LPP PW; GEV CP; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; ...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 3Q24 traffic, margin descent underway • LPP: regulator initiates proceedings against the company, on the miscommunication of the departure from Russia NEGATIVE • GEVORKYAN: successfully issues EUR 7.5m from the second tranche of its green bond NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (14-20 October) • Sarantis: 3Q24 trading update preview (due on 23 October) • Budimex: 3Q24E EBITDA flat yoy (due on 28 October) • PKO BP: 3Q24E preview (due on 7 November) • OTP Ba...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – EMEA airlines: 3Q24 traffic, margin descent underway
The combination of continued capacity recovery and a weak macro backdrop is putting pressure on passenger yields. The more favourable fuel prices (and, for Turkish Airlines (THYAO), higher cargo yields) only partially compensate for cost pressures caused by the GTF engine issue, higher personnel costs, and general cost inflation. This means that margins are beginning to compress from the often very high levels we have seen in the past two-to-three years. Among the four airlines that we cover, we...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ASELS TI; KTY PW; KAP LI; SHO PW; MIL PW; BHW PW; VRC PW; ...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 3Q24 results – top-down small beat POSITIVE • Kety: wants to increase its share in the French market NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: EGM announced to ratify a Chinese contract NEUTRAL • Shoper: 24% yoy growth expected in 3Q24E adjusted EBITDA (due on 24 October) • Bank Millennium: 3Q24E preview (due on 29 October) • Bank Handlowy: 3Q24E preview (due on 13 November) • Vercom: 3Q24E results preview – 29% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 13 November) • CD Projekt: 3Q24E EBITDA up 35%...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ELPE GA; MOH GA; VGO PW; ALE PW; INPST NA; OPL PW; CPS PW;...
HEADLINES: • Greek oil refiners: need a little time to shake things up (HELLENiQ Energy downgraded to HOLD, Motor Oil Hellas stays BUY) • VIGO Photonics: 3Q24 sales down 5% yoy, to PLN 15.7m NEGATIVE • Allegro: announces another change in CEO post NEGATIVE • InPost: acquisition of remaining 70% stake in Menzies for GBP 60m POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from an interview with the CFO NEUTRAL • Polish media: TVN put on sale for PLN 5bn, according to Newsweek NEUTRAL • ING BSK: 3Q24E prev...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: OPAP GA (reinitiating with a BUY); THYAO TI; AEGN GA; RICH...
HEADLINES: • OPAP: licence to yield (reinitiating coverage with a BUY) • Turkish Airlines: 3Q24 traffic - ASK up 5% yoy NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 traffic - ASK down 1% yoy NEUTRAL • Richter: licences in a new biosimilar candidate from China’s Bio-Thera POSITIVE • Eurocash: creates a purchase group POSITIVE • Dom Development: advance dividend of PLN 6.0/share POSITIVE • Orange Polska: 3Q24E – 1% yoy EBITDAaL growth expected (due on 23 October) • Short News (CPS, BOCHGR)
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