Bergman & Beving AB: 1 director

A director at Bergman & Beving AB bought 1,344 shares at 283.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...

Transactions, CMD and halted DPS

This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Up to HOLD after solid Q3

Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market

This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Storskogen (Buy, TP: SEK11.70) - Establishing its future footprint

Storskogen has taken major steps to reestablish its investment credentials with its portfolio clean-up. Following the Q3 results, we have largely maintained our 2024–2026e EBITA but raised EPS by 3–6% on improved financials and lower financial costs. We see potential for the company to restart a more growth-oriented capital allocation focus in 2025, ending the deleveraging period. We reiterate our BUY on still-strong valuation support, and have raised our target price to SEK11.7 (11).

Hufvudstaden (Hold, TP: SEK132.00) - Neutral Q3, but better vacancy ra...

Overall, Q3 results were in line with consensus and our expectations, resulting in limited estimate changes. In contrast to Stockholm office peers, such as Fabege and Vasakronan (unlisted), Hufvudstaden reported a somewhat improved vacancy rate for a second consecutive quarter, from 7.9% in Q2 to 7.6%. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK132 target price.

Solid NOI growth

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - October traffic statistics

We consider this a positive report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including a yield above our expectation for Norwegian Air, higher revenues for Widerøe and positive outlook comments. We expect 5% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBIT and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Nov: 4% better sales on higher yield/load

Group sales 4% better driven by NAS on higher load and yield. Strong booking momentum for Winter and Christmas. Estm unchanged, stock up ~2%

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Two upgrades, an equity raise, and transactions

This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - October traffic statistics...

Norwegian Air Shuttle is set to report October traffic statistics at 08:00 CET on 6 November. We are positive ahead of the report, forecasting a modest increase in yields and 9% ASK growth. We reiterate our BUY and NOK14 target price as we continue to believe the future is brighter than is discounted in the share price, with the stock trading at a 2024–2025e P/E of c7x.

Capacity crunch may spark pricing surge

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - Weak Q3, bookings satisfac...

Norwegian Air Shuttle’s Q3 report disappointed on weak results and a narrowed guidance below our expectations and consensus. Nevertheless, with the stock trading at a 2024e P/E of 6.5x on our revised estimates, and bookings up 20% YOY, we believe the future is brighter than is discounted in the stock price. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK14 (15) on lower forecasts.

Q3 and rental KPIs in focus

This week, reporting season was in full swing, with nine covered companies reporting Q3 results. Overall, the results were mixed, while net lettings and vacancy rates were main points of interest given the current weak rental markets. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.

Weaker numbers and guidance

Clean EBIT 9% below on higher cost. Guidance lowered implying 7% downside to cons.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates to reflect the September traffic statistics released on 4 October. We have raised our 2024e adj. EBITDA by 2%, reflecting the higher-than-expected implied September EBITDA as communicated in our news flash of 4 October. Post the revisions, our Q3e EBITDA of NOK3,616m is broadly in line with consensus. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK15 target price. The Q3 results are due at 07:00 C...