HEADLINES • Budimex: growth acceleration on the horizon (upgraded to BUY) • Halyk Bank: 1Q25 results highlights before the call POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA 15% above our forecast, but April sales disappoint NEGATIVE • GEVORKYAN: strong 1Q25 - EBITDA 15% above our expectations; 2025E conservative guidance POSITIVE • Titan Cement: completes divestment of its 75% stake in Adocim in Eastern Türkiye NEUTRAL • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: key takeaways from our call with the CF...
We are upgrading Budimex (BDX) to BUY, from Hold. Our new 12M price target (PT) of PLN 750 (vs. PLN 730 previously) offers 20% potential upside. Having reduced our 2025E forecasts by several percents, we highlight the problem of the delays seen in the market in 2024, rather than the long-term investment pipeline, which remains strong. This is also supported by the announced acceleration in military investments. After taking a pause this year (limited single-digit growth), we expect 2026-27E to m...
HEADLINES: InPost: international level (stays BUY) Romania macro: presidential election - final results Poland macro: election results 11 bit studios: 1Q25 earnings call – happy with wishlist for The Alters, no plans for pre-orders NEUTRAL Budimex: PLN 1.7bn offer rated the highest in the railway tender POSITIVE Mo-BRUK: management recommends PLN 13.17 DPS from the 2024 earnings NEUTRAL Greek banks: the Greek media reports that the banks could look into reacquiring working mortgages from NPL ser...
HEADLINES: • BIM: weak results in 1Q25 NEGATIVE • MOL: 1Q25 results – strong EBITDA, big net income beat POSITIVE • OTP Bank: neutral 1Q25 results, but supported strongly by Russian operations NEUTRAL • AmRest: 1Q25 below expectations, due to EUR 5m negative one-off NEUTRAL • NLB Group: small bottom-line miss in 1Q25, but guidance maintained NEUTRAL • National Bank of Greece: 1Q25 highlights POSITIVE • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 1Q25 highlights NEUTRAL • Alpha Services and Holdings: 1Q25 highli...
HEADLINES: • ING BSK: 1Q25 results in line with expectations and our annual 2025E expectations NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: beat in 1Q25; Biedronka margin stabilised, despite adverse calendar effect; FY25E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: dull 1Q25 results; dividend recommendation due later in May; uncertainty over impact of sale of retail operations persisting NEUTRAL • Budimex: 1Q25 EBITDA misses forecast slightly, backlog down marginally qoq, but rising amount of pending contracts...
EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: very solid 1Q25, supporting our 2025E 20%+ ROE, trading at 1.3x BV and a 9%+ yield very attractive • Komercni Banka: beat on 1Q25 bottom line driven by LLPs releases, pre-provision profit falls short of expectations NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q25 results in line; 2025E ROTE guidance sustained, but market focus on potential big M&A effort • mBank: 1Q25 solid, but valuation reflects recovery already; 2025E revenue guidance a little disappointing • Santander Bank Polska: solid ...
HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: shifting up a gear for e-commerce growth (stays BUY) • OMV: making chemical bonds (stays BUY) • Budimex: final 4Q24 results confirm prelims fully NEUTRAL • Budimex: recommends PLN 25.43 DPS from the 2024 earnings, 4.5% dividend yield NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Enea: key takeaways from the 4Q24 conference NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: release date of The Alters set as 13 June NEUTRAL
EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: structurally challenged (downgraded to HOLD) • Air Astana Group: 4Q24 – good, at first glance; dividend surprises positively • CEZ: takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEGATIVE • Allegro: key takeaways from the 4Q24 call POSITIVE • Shoper: takeaways from the post-4Q24 prelims management call NEUTRAL • Polish banks: receive maximum dividend payout ratio letters from the PFSA – no surprises NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: unfavourable ruling results in closure of Wałbrzych branch (2...
HEADLINES: • BIM: strong operating results in 4Q24 POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: 4Q24 results do not bring much new to the table NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: recovery in operating results masked by bottom-line loss in 4Q24 NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: 4Q24 results – lower than expected, due to one-off expenses NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: key takeaways from the call on the MAC Group acquisition in Türkiye POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: PLN 28.6m revaluation of Beamery to harm 2024 results NEGATIVE • Budimex: an...
EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
HEADLINES: • OPAP: strong momentum (stays BUY) • Aselsan: strong 4Q24 results and upbeat FY25E outlook POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 4Q24E results review – EBITDA +17% yoy, in line with the consensus; solid 2025E guidance and dividend recommendation POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: prepares for separation of its passive mobile POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: 2H24 – strong performance continues • Lion Finance Group PLC: 4Q24 results highlights POSITIVE • Budimex: 4Q24 prelims in line with the January guidance...
HEADLINES: • CCC: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA beats our and the market's expectations by c.20% POSITIVE • ADNOC Distribution: 4Q24 results and dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Romania macro: update on the political and fiscal situation • Poland macro: PM Tusk signals shift of policy focus • Metlen Energy & Metals: Canadian Fairfax officially raises stake to 6.4%, as expected NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: January sales growth at 9% yoy NEUTRAL • Budimex: 4Q24E preview – strong gross margin, but headlines down, as...
EME Equity Market – January 2025 The markets entered 2025 on the right foot. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in January. The Polish WIG20 was the best performer (+12.7% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX and Czech PX indices (+8.9% mom and +6.2% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). There was also a very solid performance from the Greek ASE Index (+5.4% mom in EUR terms), but more muted performances from the Romanian BET and Turkish ISE 30 indices (+1.6%...
HEADLINES: • mBank: issues 4Q24E and 2024E guidance NEUTRAL • Richter: US Medicare to negotiate Vraylar prices starting 2027 NEGATIVE • Budimex: PLN 1.05bn lawsuit against the consortium that constructed Turów power plant unit NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: new publishing agreement with The Outer Zone NEUTRAL • EME Strategy: OFEs' 2024 annual holdings
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 2025-29E strategy – ambitious, and sees further growth of earnings, assisted by high ROEs POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: EUR 0.3bn capex plan to boost alumina capacity by 50% and produce gallium as well POSITIVE • Poland macro: NBP keeps rates unchanged, as expected • Bank Pekao: to add PLN 370m of FX mortgage provision charges, shielded by PLN 103m of deferred tax asset recognition; positive change in NPL stock NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: USD 3.5m impairment of investment in ...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: 1Q25 revenues 6% short of the consensus, on weak Poundland; Pepco lfl back in the black NEGATIVE • Romania macro: NBR extends the pause • Magyar Telekom: to implement 3.7% annual inflation-based fee adjustment from April 2025 POSITIVE • VIGO Photonics: 4Q24 sales up 10% yoy, to PLN 24.1m POSITIVE • Budimex: 4Q24E EBIT guidance below our expectations, but in line with the consensus; strong backlog NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: approves new dividend policy, assuming payout of at ...
HEADLINES: • Baltic Classifieds Group: strong FY 1H25 financial results; conference call takeaways POSITIVE • Kety: Roman Przybylski (current deputy CEO) to become new CEO NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: update on the US class action lawsuit regarding the technical solutions used by GOG NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: starts marketing campaign for Moonlighter 2 publishing project NEUTRAL • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2024 • 11 bit studios: postcard from Prague • Benefit Systems: postcard from Prague...
EME Equity Market – November 2024 Rebound in Türkiye, Romania hammered. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 3.8% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in November. The Turkish ISE30 recouped the losses of the previous month, adding 10.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX added 4.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the PX (+2.9% mom), the ASE (+0.8% mom) and the WIG (+0.8% mom) (all in EUR terms). Following the first round of presidential elections, and the polemic and uncertainty that ensued, the BET ...
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