Trelleborg (Hold, TP: SEK425.00) - Muted end to the year

We estimate Q4 sales of SEK8,628m, organic growth of c-1% YOY and adj. EBITA of SEK1,498m (2% above consensus). We expect a neutral outlook from management going into 2025, and have increased our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c2% on average (mainly due to FX). We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK425 (400) on updated valuation and estimates. Trelleborg’s valuation premium relative to its Swedish Capital Goods peer group has increased recently, in our view leaving limited furth...

Profits wrapped, margins unpacked

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Seeing the results of repricing

As the repricing efforts to counter inflationary pressure and increased disability trends start to yield results, along with more normal winter weather, we expect a solid Q4 pre-tax profit before amortisation of NOK1,015m, 7% stronger YOY, driven by an improved insurance result. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e and reiterate our BUY and NOK140 target price.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates to reflect the higher-than-expected volumes and prices for Hydro Power announced by Orkla in its pre-close update for Q4 this morning. We have raised our 2024e adj. EBIT by 1%, and we now forecast Q4 adj. EBIT of NOK1,923m, 1% above consensus (results due at 07:00 CET on 13 February). We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our HOLD recommendation. We reiterate our NOK105 target price.

Orkla ASA: 1 director

A director at Orkla ASA maiden bought 10,000 shares at 98.550NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Norway: Best ideas Q4'24

The Capital Goods Data Miner – December 2024

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - India’s sweetness versus cocoa’s increas...

We are slightly negative ahead of the Q4 report, expecting results below consensus on slightly lower revenue growth and margins. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK105 target price, as we continue to find the valuation fair.

On course for ample distributions

While we forecast some margin moderation from current highs, we believe still-high interest rates, robust asset quality and a firm profitability focus bode well for continued strong earnings. With the sector trading at an average dividend-adjusted 2025e P/E of ~9.3x and several banks having additional excess capital, we still find the valuation undemanding. Noting some HOLD recommendations, we keep our positive sector view.

Norwegian banks: Increased RW floors for IRB banks

N-MoF increase RW to 25% for mortgages, keep CRE at 35%; Implementation 30 June 2025, banks time to adopt; Stocks likely down 1-3%. SVEG, MING more than DNB, NONG.

ABGSC Shipping Daily 29 November

Container spot rates up again 3% w-o-w, contract rates flat, HAUTO signs 2-year contract with a "major international car producer", Flex LNG announces 15yr time charter for Flex Constellation

Norwegian savings banks: 4 proposals in a white paper

The ECC capital loss absorbing rank must be solved. Four independent suggestions, interconnect we think. SB1NO could be a relative winner, but still early days.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Solid momentum reaffirmed

We find ALK’s solid momentum reaffirmed with the strong Q3 results, where higher European tablet sales more than offset the softness in SCIT/SLIT-drops. We believe the results also confirmed continued profitability improvement, leaving ALK on track to meet its 2025 EBIT margin target of c25% and in a position of strength to invest in growth opportunities, with the Neffy deal as a good example. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.

Sparebanken Vest (Buy, TP: NOK158.00) - Long-term synergy potential

In this note, we have included the merger with Sparebanken Sør in our estimates (scheduled for 1 May 2025 pending regulatory approval). The banks have guided for annual operating synergies of NOK350m–400m from 2027–2028, as well as combined capital benefits of NOK4.1bn (NOK2.1bn from the new standard method and NOK2bn from SVEG’s IRB models). While we have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~5% due to the synergy time lag, we expect the merger to be accretive longer-term. Also seeing generous dividend pr...

The Capital Goods Data Miner – November 2024

Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Very much on track, but slightly lower '25e