Still cheap and more SBB underway

Exactly what the bulls wanted

Modern Times Group AB: 1 director

A director at Modern Times Group AB bought 17,540 shares at 102.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 78/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...

Strong construction margin

Good risk/reward into the Q2 report

ABGSC Shipping Daily 16 July

Order beat in Q2?

Still cheap and the Red Sea is still closed

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK9400.00) - Resistance to gravity seem...

The Q1 report was largely as expected, albeit with support in the results related to mostly passing effects. Hence, we retain our view that the chronic oversupply of vessels will deteriorate the current value of the company. On rates converging towards 2016 levels, it should burn through more than USD13bn by the end of our forecast period, with no respite in sight due to the towering orderbook and owners still willing to order. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to DKK9,400 ...

Q1'25 beat driven by Ocean and Terminals

Tomra (Sell, TP: NOK130.00) - Disappointing Recycling orders

We have reduced our 2026-2027e Recycling EBITA by c6%, due to lower-than-expected Q1 EBITA and order intake. With several EU markets moving closer to implementing a deposit return system, we have raised our 2026–2027e Collection EBITA by c5%. The net effect is an increase of 2–3% for the group 2026–2027e EPS, and we have thus raised our target price to NOK130 (120). We reiterate our SELL, as we believe Tomra’s valuation does not reflect its growth prospects.

Skanska (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Volatile miss in Q1

Q1 EBIT missed, as the Residential and Commercial Development divisions had weaker-than-expected results. We have reduced our recovery expectations for these segments due to continued softness in Nordic housing sales and a slow recovery in US commercial property development. However, we still see upside potential in our SOTP-based valuation and reiterate our BUY. Nevertheless, based on our lowered forecasts, we have reduced our target price to SEK255 (270).

Still in a solid position

Solid Construction results

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK8800.00) - Overcapacity at the gates

We find the recent share price strength surprising and likely short-lived due to a challenging supply/demand balance, only augmented by the escalating trade tensions. While we expect a Q1 beat versus consensus, we believe the company’s outlook is unlikely to satisfy buy-side expectations, and we see sizeable downside risk to the current valuation. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK8,800 (10,800).

Tariffs will hurt, but cons. is too low for Q1

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Encouraging organic growth trend

MTG’s 2025 organic growth outlook of 3–7% YOY was a key positive in an otherwise difficult market for mobile gaming, in our view. However, the adj. EBITDA margin guidance of 21–24% fell shy of our expectation. We have only finetuned our 2025–2026e sales, but cut adj. EBITDA by 18–7% on the margin outlook, with some upside potential if synergies from the Plarium acquisition should materialise in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK130 (140).

Tomra (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - First-quarter fizzle

We expect a muted Q1 EBITA of EUR33m, as seasonality weakens the results along with a slowdown in sales to new markets for Collection. We have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by 2% on adjustments to margins and order backlog. We have not heard any announcements regarding upcoming DRS’ status during the quarter. We reiterate our SELL and NOK120 target price.

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...