Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR13.50) - Aisle of opportunity

We have upgraded Tokmanni to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR13.5 (13.0). We believe the recent market reaction overly penalised Tokmanni, with a PEG of c0.6x offering a good entry point in one of the largest variety discounters in the Nordics. Although overall economic uncertainty has risen, we believe Tokmanni’s low exposure to cyclical demand supports sustained growth and continue to see higher margins through operational scaling. For Q1e, we are close to consensus and expect 202...

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR13.00) - Fewer dollars on the bottom line

While LFL sales and traffic improved sequentially in Q4, we believe this was driven by extensive campaigns and uptake in consumables, with lower gross margins questioning the competitiveness of Tokmanni’s accretive margin range, particularly in Sweden. In our view, the broad profit guidance indicates a cautious outlook and low visibility. We have reduced our target price to EUR13 (14), having cut our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c6.5% on average, mostly on lower DollarStore gross margin projections, ...

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR14.00) - Neutral view intact

We expect a slightly positive Q4 (our sales estimate is slightly below consensus, but our clean EBIT is c3.5% above), as the company’s performance should reflect modestly better trading conditions and margin expansion. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to EUR14 (12.5), following our more de-risked view of its 2025–2026e profit outlook, supported by the recently announced SPAR International licence agreement.

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK10800.00) - Just too many ships

We expect Q4 to mark a turning point, with probable distributions announced and clear downside risk. Simply comparing the ratio of ships to cargo, we find there should be a significant number of ships without work versus 2019, and believe the depth of the downturn has yet to be priced in. We have downgraded to SELL (HOLD) and cut our target price to DKK10,800 (11,700).

Red Sea re-opening is well discounted

Q4 beat and '25 guidance better than feared

A playbook on US tariffs

As a response to recent news flow of potential tariffs and countermeasures, we highlight the main implications for the shipping sectors we cover. While the specifics remain uncertain, the below input might assist in gauging potential impacts of the disruptions.

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Hold, TP: DKK11700.00) - Potential for USD4bn–8bn ...

We expect the Q4 results to reflect continued strength in the container freight market, which picked up further over December–January, and have raised our 2025 forecasts. However, our 2025e EBITDA of USD6.0bn remains 17% below Bloomberg consensus. With guidance likely the main focus, we expect it to target underlying EBITDA of USD4bn–8bn. As vessel oversupply is set to continue hampering rates for a dreary long-term outlook, we reiterate our HOLD and DKK11,700 target price.

A final 2024 guidance upgrade in the making

ABGSC Shipping Daily 29 November

Container spot rates up again 3% w-o-w, contract rates flat, HAUTO signs 2-year contract with a "major international car producer", Flex LNG announces 15yr time charter for Flex Constellation

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Hold, TP: DKK11700.00) - Anchored by challenges

We fail to be excited by the largely pre-announced Q3 and recently revised guidance, but concede the valuation in Maersk looks depressed, albeit for a very good reason. More newbuild orders from the latest cash build mean another delivery wave on top of an already structurally overbuilt industry. We remain muted on the sector and reiterate our HOLD, and have lowered our target price to DKK11,700 (11,500).

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR11.00) - Neutral ahead of Q3

We are close to consensus Q3 clean EBIT, reflecting lower YOY profitability for Tokmanni Finland and soft demand for the group’s key categories. We continue to see downside risk to its 2024 guidance and struggle to get excited about Tokmanni after a series of quarters with negative LFL traffic KPIs (including DollarStore) and underperformance versus the market. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR11 (12), after small estimate cuts.

New guidance already looks conservative

Solid report; FY guidance looks low

Q3'24 as pre-announced last week. Segments - Beat in all segments. Freight rates better than modelled, share up 1-3%.

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Hold, TP: DKK11500.00) - Likely topping out in Q3

While the Q3 results posted a ~USD1bn beat to our and consensus expectations likely due to stronger container shipping markets, we believe the implications for long-term estimates are limited, as its updated guidance indicates a ~USD2bn QOQ decline for Q4. Hence, the Q3 beat on a stand-alone basis would add up to 4% to the market cap, all else equal.

Guidance upgrade equals 5% of market cap

Q3'24 EBITDA of USD 4.8bn (ABGSCe at USD 4.5, cons. at USD 3.6). Increases full year guidance - Not unexpected. Higher guidance warrants a positive share price reaction.

Q3e EBITDA lifted 32%; consensus too low

YTD container demand growth of 18%. Consensus too low for Q3; potential guidance upgrade for '24. TP of DKK 14,300 (14,550) – BUY.

Tokmanni Group Corporation: 1 director

A director at Tokmanni Group Corporation bought 7,000 shares at 10.557EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR12.00) - Shrinking customer base

With headline numbers pre-released, the full Q2 results confirmed the soft underlying performance as well as a continued marked decline in the LFL customer visits, which we only partly attribute to weak spring sales. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to EUR12 (15), having lowered our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c6.5% on average.