Continues its international expansion

Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 40,000 shares at 450.528DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Still cheap and the Red Sea is still closed

Genco Shipping & Trading Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates for the company’s Q1 results and other minor model adjustments. Hence, we have raised our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 1%, while we lowered our 2027e by 1%. We maintain that Genco’s steep discount to underlying values (0.57x EV/GAV) more than offsets the downside risk to our muted near-term outlook for the dry bulk segment and the entailing risk of negative momentum in asset valuations. Further, the company demonstrated an ability to adjust its quarterly reserve to facilita...

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK9400.00) - Resistance to gravity seem...

The Q1 report was largely as expected, albeit with support in the results related to mostly passing effects. Hence, we retain our view that the chronic oversupply of vessels will deteriorate the current value of the company. On rates converging towards 2016 levels, it should burn through more than USD13bn by the end of our forecast period, with no respite in sight due to the towering orderbook and owners still willing to order. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to DKK9,400 ...

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK950.00) - Dapiglutide likely next catalyst

Q1 revenue missed expectations on lower reimbursement revenue, while operating profit was a beat, as opex was below our forecast and consensus. The 2025 guidance was maintained for opex of DKK2,000m–2,500m. We believe the next potential share-price catalyst is the top-line results from the phase Ib dapiglutide trial in Q2e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK950 (1,000).

Meets expectations in Q3

Q1'25 beat driven by Ocean and Terminals

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Accelerated Wegovy roll-out ahead

Q1 LCY figures beat our forecasts, while the 2025 guidance was cut to 13–21% LCY sales growth YOY and 16–24% LCY operating profit growth YOY due to weaker GLP-1 sales. We have lowered our rebate for US Ozempic but maintain our 52% Wegovy rebate (in line with the Q1 rebate when adjusting for de-stocking). We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK8800.00) - Overcapacity at the gates

We find the recent share price strength surprising and likely short-lived due to a challenging supply/demand balance, only augmented by the escalating trade tensions. While we expect a Q1 beat versus consensus, we believe the company’s outlook is unlikely to satisfy buy-side expectations, and we see sizeable downside risk to the current valuation. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK8,800 (10,800).

Tariffs will hurt, but cons. is too low for Q1

Genco Shipping & Trading (Buy, TP: USD15.10) - Attractive discount

We have not changed our muted stance on the near-term outlook for the dry bulk segment, and see ~30% downside risk to current asset valuations on the prevailing 1-year TCs. However, Genco’s close to 50% discount to underlying values (EV/GAV 0.53x) seems overdone and represents an attractive entry point, we believe. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), but have lowered our target price to USD15.1 (15.4).

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Underlying soft GLP-1 sales

We forecast a soft Q1, with 17.3% LCY sales growth and 13.8% LCY operating profit growth due to subdued prescriptions. While we estimate Ozempic sales c0.5% below consensus, we are c1.2% above for Wegovy, as we include DKK1bn in sales related to Wegovy US inventories. We see likely relief from potential unchanged 2025 LCY guidance, supported by improved Wegovy supply and fading pressure from compounders. We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Pareto Bank (Buy, TP: NOK84.00) - Solid start to the year

Helped by still-solid core revenues and firm cost efficiency, PARB reported a Q1 ROE of 13.5%, despite some provisions. With deposit volumes rising by ~8.1% QOQ, the bank somewhat increased its bond holdings in the quarter, resulting in a ~5bp lower CET1 ratio at quarter-end, offset by strong earnings generation. We have made only minor changes to our 2026–2027e EPS. With the stock trading at a 2026e P/E of ~8.0x, we still find the valuation attractive, and reiterate our BUY and NOK84 target pri...

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Focus on pipeline progression

We expect an uneventful Q1 report, with investor focus on top-line results from the dapiglutide phase Ib obesity trial (due in Q2), which could help provide clarity on the positioning of the molecule in obesity and inflammation. For petrelintide, we have reduced our peak sales forecast to cUSD10.0bn (cUSD10.8bn) on increased competition from GUBamy. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,150).

Increased political risk

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1

We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).

Pareto Bank (Buy, TP: NOK84.00) - Set for continued strong profitabili...

Supported by still-solid core revenues and firm cost efficiency, we expect a Q1 ROE of 13.0%, despite some provisions in real estate development. With an updated CET1 requirement of 16.29% (formerly 16.7%), including P2G, we see solid dividend potential and growth capacity. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1%, and with the stock trading at a 2026e dividend-adjusted P/E of 8.2x, we continue to find the valuation attractive. Thus, we have raised our target price to NOK84 (76) and reiterate BU...

Outlook for continued high rates

Although we continue to expect some margin headwind, the outlook for postponed rate cuts – leaving interest rates at continued high levels – should bode well for sector earnings, further supported by a strong profitability focus and modest loan losses. With the sector trading at an average 2026e P/E of c11.0x, and solid dividend potential, we find the valuation undemanding. We reiterate our positive sector view but highlight a larger share of HOLD recommendations than 12 months ago.