Atea (Buy, TP: NOK170.00) - Solid performance

Q1 gross profit and EBIT beat our above-consensus estimates, largely on a higher gross margin offsetting a slightly softer-than-expected top line and more opex than we expected. Furthermore, adjusted for FX losses, underlying earnings were well above our estimate and consensus. In short, we see this setting Atea up to track in line with our above-consensus estimates for 2025–2027 (which we have edged up) as well as multiples expansion. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NO...

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Encouraging organic growth trend

MTG’s 2025 organic growth outlook of 3–7% YOY was a key positive in an otherwise difficult market for mobile gaming, in our view. However, the adj. EBITDA margin guidance of 21–24% fell shy of our expectation. We have only finetuned our 2025–2026e sales, but cut adj. EBITDA by 18–7% on the margin outlook, with some upside potential if synergies from the Plarium acquisition should materialise in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK130 (140).

Growth: check, margin: check, valuation: check

4% EBIT beat, solid 2025 guidance

Atea (Buy, TP: NOK160.00) - Set up for a strong run

While we have cut our estimates, we expect improving margins on recently launched frame agreements, continued hardware refresh cycles, and a potential shift in customer preferences for IT infrastructure deployment models to contribute to a return to double-digit EBIT growth, in line with or above its historical track record. Although there is clearly risk inherent in the ongoing trade war and recent competitive dynamics, Atea’s heavy exposure to the Nordic public sector should cushion it from su...

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Solid entry points into quality

Following the solid Q1 report that was supported by the low-cost pulp operations in Uruguay, we have kept our optimistic 2025–2027e earnings, translating into highly attractive valuation multiples largely unchanged. With heavily reduced capex set for the coming years, we also still forecast strong cash flows, leaving the balance sheet overcapitalised. With this backdrop, we believe UPM will continue to pursue buybacks on top of compelling dividends in most feasible scenarios. We reiterate our BU...

Better realised pulp prices in Q1

Growth to accelerate in 2025

Q1 EBIT +9%

Tomra (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - First-quarter fizzle

We expect a muted Q1 EBITA of EUR33m, as seasonality weakens the results along with a slowdown in sales to new markets for Collection. We have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by 2% on adjustments to margins and order backlog. We have not heard any announcements regarding upcoming DRS’ status during the quarter. We reiterate our SELL and NOK120 target price.

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - First quarter including Plarium

Q1 will be the first quarter including the transformative Plarium acquisition (consolidated from 1 February), set to roughly double MTG’s revenue and adj. EBITDA. Our impression is organic growth trends have held up alright in Q1; however, the recent strengthening of the SEK has prompted a ~9% cut to our 2025–2026e revenue and EBITDA. We have lowered our target price to SEK140 (150) but reiterate our BUY.

Two negatives and one positive

Challenging road ahead

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Separating the wheat from the chaff

While acknowledging the overall high macro uncertainty, we still expect UPM to show continued earnings growth in 2025, in contrast to many other cyclical companies. Due to a more cautious view on pulp prices and FX, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 12–8%. Still, our earnings scenario remains highly attractive. We have also lowered our 2026–2027e capex as we believe the company will push growth investments into the future and instead prioritise share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY, but have c...

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Acquiring Validia Oy

Ambea’s acquisition of Validia Oy, entering the Finnish social care market, makes good sense to us. A post-integration valuation of c7.5x EV/EBITA and tacit ROIC of c13% suggest a solid deal, and consolidating Validia Oy implies 4–5% increases to our 2025–2027e adj. EPS. We see a strong case, with robust demand, solid FCF and financials giving room for share buybacks/dividends and further possible acquisitions. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK130 (123).

Norway: Best ideas Q1'25

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

January: Pulp shipments +6.2% y-o-y