May: Pulp shipments -1.7% y-o-y

Ambea AB: 1 director

A director at Ambea AB sold 100,000 shares at 112.403SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 78/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

More value than momentum, except for wood

Q2 preview

Defence to drive Q2 beat

Apr: Pulp shipments +2% y-o-y

Large forest deal at EV/EBITDA 36-60x

Mar: Pulp shipments +7% y-o-y

Still cheap and the Red Sea is still closed

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK9400.00) - Resistance to gravity seem...

The Q1 report was largely as expected, albeit with support in the results related to mostly passing effects. Hence, we retain our view that the chronic oversupply of vessels will deteriorate the current value of the company. On rates converging towards 2016 levels, it should burn through more than USD13bn by the end of our forecast period, with no respite in sight due to the towering orderbook and owners still willing to order. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to DKK9,400 ...

Q1'25 beat driven by Ocean and Terminals

Tomra (Sell, TP: NOK130.00) - Disappointing Recycling orders

We have reduced our 2026-2027e Recycling EBITA by c6%, due to lower-than-expected Q1 EBITA and order intake. With several EU markets moving closer to implementing a deposit return system, we have raised our 2026–2027e Collection EBITA by c5%. The net effect is an increase of 2–3% for the group 2026–2027e EPS, and we have thus raised our target price to NOK130 (120). We reiterate our SELL, as we believe Tomra’s valuation does not reflect its growth prospects.

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK8800.00) - Overcapacity at the gates

We find the recent share price strength surprising and likely short-lived due to a challenging supply/demand balance, only augmented by the escalating trade tensions. While we expect a Q1 beat versus consensus, we believe the company’s outlook is unlikely to satisfy buy-side expectations, and we see sizeable downside risk to the current valuation. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK8,800 (10,800).

Tariffs will hurt, but cons. is too low for Q1

Atea (Buy, TP: NOK170.00) - Solid performance

Q1 gross profit and EBIT beat our above-consensus estimates, largely on a higher gross margin offsetting a slightly softer-than-expected top line and more opex than we expected. Furthermore, adjusted for FX losses, underlying earnings were well above our estimate and consensus. In short, we see this setting Atea up to track in line with our above-consensus estimates for 2025–2027 (which we have edged up) as well as multiples expansion. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NO...

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Encouraging organic growth trend

MTG’s 2025 organic growth outlook of 3–7% YOY was a key positive in an otherwise difficult market for mobile gaming, in our view. However, the adj. EBITDA margin guidance of 21–24% fell shy of our expectation. We have only finetuned our 2025–2026e sales, but cut adj. EBITDA by 18–7% on the margin outlook, with some upside potential if synergies from the Plarium acquisition should materialise in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK130 (140).

Growth: check, margin: check, valuation: check

4% EBIT beat, solid 2025 guidance

Atea (Buy, TP: NOK160.00) - Set up for a strong run

While we have cut our estimates, we expect improving margins on recently launched frame agreements, continued hardware refresh cycles, and a potential shift in customer preferences for IT infrastructure deployment models to contribute to a return to double-digit EBIT growth, in line with or above its historical track record. Although there is clearly risk inherent in the ongoing trade war and recent competitive dynamics, Atea’s heavy exposure to the Nordic public sector should cushion it from su...

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Solid entry points into quality

Following the solid Q1 report that was supported by the low-cost pulp operations in Uruguay, we have kept our optimistic 2025–2027e earnings, translating into highly attractive valuation multiples largely unchanged. With heavily reduced capex set for the coming years, we also still forecast strong cash flows, leaving the balance sheet overcapitalised. With this backdrop, we believe UPM will continue to pursue buybacks on top of compelling dividends in most feasible scenarios. We reiterate our BU...