Crude Quarterly Q2'25: In the absence of war, the oil market is well s...

AUM rebound drives earnings growth

Market tailwinds, valuation headwinds

Norway: Best ideas Q2'25

Insurance trip: 16 insurers in three days

Non-life have price increases > inflation in all markets, most in Norway. Life insurance growth with rapid growth & dividend payments. Prefer ALMB, Sampo, Solid, Tryg among non-life; STB for life

ROE held back by too-high capital base

Still cheap and the Red Sea is still closed

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK9400.00) - Resistance to gravity seem...

The Q1 report was largely as expected, albeit with support in the results related to mostly passing effects. Hence, we retain our view that the chronic oversupply of vessels will deteriorate the current value of the company. On rates converging towards 2016 levels, it should burn through more than USD13bn by the end of our forecast period, with no respite in sight due to the towering orderbook and owners still willing to order. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to DKK9,400 ...

Kongsberg Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK1250.00) - Expectations are set too hi...

We have downgraded Kongsberg Gruppen to SELL (HOLD) and lowered our target price to NOK1,250 (1,450). We believe the 2025e P/E of 46x overstates its growth capabilities 1) on an absolute basis, in a scenario where all of NATO reaches defence spending of 3.3% of GDP; and 2) compared to other defence companies as, in our view, the market appears to miss that only 20% of its 2024 sales were from European defence spending.

Q1'25 beat driven by Ocean and Terminals

Q1: Small Adj. EBITDA beat and stronger orders

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Insurance repricing on track

Q1 PTP before amortisation was NOK1,167m, up 8% YOY, driven by strong growth in Banking and Insurance. While high sales activity had a negative impact on the insurance cost ratio, the combined ratio continued to improve through premium growth of 20% YOY, leaving Storebrand close to the 90–92% target for 2025. We have made fairly limited EPS revisions for 2026–2027e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK149 target price.

Softer operating profit, better financials

Adj PTP +5%/-2%, on better financials, but much weaker op.profit. Softer fee, insurance and opex behind the miss, financials beat. Cons.est.rev -2-4%, stock -2% to 4% on the operating profit miss

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK8800.00) - Overcapacity at the gates

We find the recent share price strength surprising and likely short-lived due to a challenging supply/demand balance, only augmented by the escalating trade tensions. While we expect a Q1 beat versus consensus, we believe the company’s outlook is unlikely to satisfy buy-side expectations, and we see sizeable downside risk to the current valuation. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK8,800 (10,800).

Tariffs will hurt, but cons. is too low for Q1

Heads-up for Q1-report, 7 May

A setback for AUM and returns

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK1450.00) - Less European exposure than...

We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK2.2bn (results due at 07:00 CET on 8 May). Kongsberg Gruppen’s valuation premium to European defence peers has shrunk as peer multiples have converged on expectations of higher European defence spending. We believe this is warranted by its lower share of defence sales to EU countries. We continue to find the valuation demanding, while struggling to see negative share price catalysts. Hence, we reiterate our HOLD while we have raised our target price to NOK1,450 (1,300).

Crude Quarterly Q1'25: weaker oil market fundamentals