A setback for AUM and returns

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK1450.00) - Less European exposure than...

We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK2.2bn (results due at 07:00 CET on 8 May). Kongsberg Gruppen’s valuation premium to European defence peers has shrunk as peer multiples have converged on expectations of higher European defence spending. We believe this is warranted by its lower share of defence sales to EU countries. We continue to find the valuation demanding, while struggling to see negative share price catalysts. Hence, we reiterate our HOLD while we have raised our target price to NOK1,450 (1,300).

Crude Quarterly Q1'25: weaker oil market fundamentals

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Strong start to the year

Fuelled by strong AUM growth within Savings, and the effects of several rounds of insurance repricing, we forecast a Q1 PTP (before amortisation) of NOK1,166m, ~8% stronger YOY. With the new NOK1.5bn buyback underway, the company is offering an attractive payout yield of 6–7%. We believe the stock is attractively valued at a 2026e P/E of c10x, when adjusting for the excess capital to be distributed. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NOK149 (140).

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Kongsberg Gruppen ASA: 1 director

A director at Kongsberg Gruppen ASA sold 5,000 shares at 1,615.310NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 72/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...

Nordic non-life insurance – Q4 reporting wrap

Clearer capital repatriation path needed

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Strong repricing momentum

The insurance rebound continued to raise earnings, with PTP before amortisation up 61% YOY after a 15%-point improvement in the reported combined ratio. However, the performance was still hampered by elevated disability claims, and despite ~20% higher premiums YOY, the full effect from recent repricing measures has yet to be seen. We have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 2%, and reiterate our BUY and NOK140 target price.

It can better; but stock to reset down

Heads-up for Q4-report, 12 February

When good isn't good enough

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK1300.00) - Strong order intake in Defe...

Kongsberg Gruppen reported Q4 EBITDA of NOK2.2bn, largely in line with estimates. Group order intake surged to NOK45bn, beating our estimates and consensus by 15% and 28%, respectively. A 2024 DPS of NOK22 was proposed alongside a 1/5 stock split. We have adjusted our 2025–2026e EPS by 2–3% on higher-than-expected order intake. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK1,300 target price.

Q4: Slight EBITDA miss, but strong orders

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK10800.00) - Just too many ships

We expect Q4 to mark a turning point, with probable distributions announced and clear downside risk. Simply comparing the ratio of ships to cargo, we find there should be a significant number of ships without work versus 2019, and believe the depth of the downturn has yet to be priced in. We have downgraded to SELL (HOLD) and cut our target price to DKK10,800 (11,700).

Red Sea re-opening is well discounted

Q4 beat and '25 guidance better than feared

A playbook on US tariffs

As a response to recent news flow of potential tariffs and countermeasures, we highlight the main implications for the shipping sectors we cover. While the specifics remain uncertain, the below input might assist in gauging potential impacts of the disruptions.

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Hold, TP: DKK11700.00) - Potential for USD4bn–8bn ...

We expect the Q4 results to reflect continued strength in the container freight market, which picked up further over December–January, and have raised our 2025 forecasts. However, our 2025e EBITDA of USD6.0bn remains 17% below Bloomberg consensus. With guidance likely the main focus, we expect it to target underlying EBITDA of USD4bn–8bn. As vessel oversupply is set to continue hampering rates for a dreary long-term outlook, we reiterate our HOLD and DKK11,700 target price.