Q1 earnings beat our forecast, as weaker revenues were offset by strong cost control. While the company has seen some signs of improvement QTD, the market remains challenging, with low consumer confidence and slow housing and EV markets. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK10 target price.
We consider this a slightly positive report for Elektroimportøren, with EBITDA above expectations despite slightly weaker revenues and a cautiously optimistic outlook. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBITDA up 5% on the back of the report and believe a slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.
As offshore wind names yesterday were affected by an inferred possible slowdown in the US in a scenario with a change in the presidency (limited relevance for Cadeler), the company’s new solid job for 2027e execution was overlooked. With an all-in dayrate of cEUR400k and an annual vessel EBITDA run-rate above EUR100m, the profitability of the contract exceeds our forecast by c50%. We have raised our 2027e EBITDA, which would imply a EV/EBITDA of 3.1x, dropping to 2.1x in a scenario with all unit...
We have marginally increased our revenue estimates and revised our cost assumptions, owing to the Q1 results. With no surprises related to the Red Sea disruption or the Baltimore bridge accident, focus should shift to shareholder distributions. The revised dividend policy allows for extraordinary dividends at the board’s discretion, something we have not seen before, and the first possibility could be in connection with Q2. We calculate cNOK25/share in excess cash today, potentially on top of N...
The Q1 results proved disappointing to buy-side expectations, though reasonably aligned and even bullish compared to near-term consensus. Their market commentary could raise expectations above the upper end of the potentially conservative guidance, but we struggle to see the intrinsic value when facing the bleak container markets for 2025–2026e. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK9,000 (9,600).
Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.
There is a substantial discrepancy between container liners’ reported and guided revenue for Q1, as the impacts of the Red Sea disruption and resurgent freight rates are revealed. Near-term consensus could be too low, but the 2025–2026 outlook is set to be much worse than the market believes. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to DKK9,600 (9,500).
Despite weaker organic growth than we had expected, Q1 had strong cost control and solid margins. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c1% on average, having become more positive on margins. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK140 target price, continuing to see risk/reward as fairly balanced.
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