The Q1 results proved disappointing to buy-side expectations, though reasonably aligned and even bullish compared to near-term consensus. Their market commentary could raise expectations above the upper end of the potentially conservative guidance, but we struggle to see the intrinsic value when facing the bleak container markets for 2025–2026e. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK9,000 (9,600).
Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.
Despite beating guidance in Q1, Autoliv kept its 2024 guidance intact. In our view, this adds upside potential to consensus for 2024 and some credibility to the 12% medium-term EBIT margin target. Although we estimate 29% YOY growth in 2024e adj. EBIT, fundamentals are likely to be on the sidelines as we expect the company to resume its large share buyback programme in the coming weeks (the mandate has USD873m, c9% of the market cap, left for 2024). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our targe...
There is a substantial discrepancy between container liners’ reported and guided revenue for Q1, as the impacts of the Red Sea disruption and resurgent freight rates are revealed. Near-term consensus could be too low, but the 2025–2026 outlook is set to be much worse than the market believes. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to DKK9,600 (9,500).
We expect Q1 operating EBIT of DKK666m (8% above consensus of DKK615m), driven by higher harvest volumes, as EBIT/kg margins are broadly in line (our estimated group EBIT/kg is DKK30.8 versus consensus of DKK31.2). Faroe Islands harvested 14.3kt in Q1 and we expect solid average harvest weights, while Scotland harvested 7.3kt. We expect high superior shares in both regions. For the Fishmeal, Oil and Feed segment, we expect EBIT of DKK162m, in line with consensus of DKK164m. The Q1 report is due ...
We are roughly in line with Q1 consensus, and expect an adj. EBIT margin close to the guidance of c7% and a reiteration of the 2024 guidance. We estimate c30% adj. EBIT growth for 2024 and the cUSD0.9bn of the buyback mandate that remains for this year to further support the stock, which remains one of our sector top picks. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK1,425 (1,300).
Knowing who has the best farming locations, production areas and operations is key to assessing future performance potential. Our extensive asset quality research findings suggest SalMar has the best sites, and the best MAB portfolio, while Mowi has outperformed its benchmark the most and has the most conservative estimates versus our expectations. Grieg Seafood is the most undervalued and Lerøy Seafood has the highest margin rebound potential in our view.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.