Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Elektroimportøren (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Cost control helps earnings b...

Q1 earnings beat our forecast, as weaker revenues were offset by strong cost control. While the company has seen some signs of improvement QTD, the market remains challenging, with low consumer confidence and slow housing and EV markets. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK10 target price.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK87.00) - Solid start to the year

A 3% outperformance on Q1 sales versus our estimate and consensus together with lower operating expenses helped EBITDA beat our forecast by 193% (but cNOK5m in absolute terms). Management reiterated its guidance for 6–9% organic product sales growth in 2024 and positive EBITDA (excluding business development costs). We reiterate our BUY and NOK87 target price.

Lerøy Seafood (Hold, TP: NOK55.00) - Progress with new technology

Q1 operating EBIT of NOK842m was c4% below our estimate, but 3% above consensus. New shielding and submersible technologies are reported to work well, with strong biological performance in Q1. The company guides for costs in line to slightly higher than in 2023, and while the 2024 harvest guidance was maintained, 2025 was cut 5kt from Sjøtroll. We have reduced our 2024e EPS by 6.0%, but increased 2025–2026e by 0.5–3.6%. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), with a raised target price of NOK55 (52).

Looks increasingly worth the wait

'24e-'25e EBIT (core) largely unchanged post Q1. Investments gradually translating into better operations. '24e-'25e P/E 12x-10x; BUY reiterated, TP of NOK 65.

Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 9,000 shares at 915.500DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

Elektroimportøren (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Q1 EBITDA above on lower cost...

We consider this a slightly positive report for Elektroimportøren, with EBITDA above expectations despite slightly weaker revenues and a cautiously optimistic outlook. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBITDA up 5% on the back of the report and believe a slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Lerøy Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK52.00) - Q1 in line and operational progres...

Q1 operating EBIT was NOK842m, 4% below our estimate, but 3% above consensus. Farming EBIT fell shy of expectations, while wildcatch and VAP were above. Operational performance in farming stated to go well, with good growth and biology in all regions, helped by shielding technologies. The 2024 harvest guidance was unchanged at 175kt (consensus: 161–167kt). We expect consensus 2024e EPS to come up 0–2% and the stock 2–5% on improved sentiment regarding an operational turnaround.

Q1: EBIT +3% vs cons; a broad-based beat

Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK5.10) - Soft project market

We have cut our 2024e adj. EBIT by 17%, mainly on lower margin assumptions for Nordic. Nobia expects continued challenging market conditions in 2024 (driven by the project segment), and plans to reduce its fixed cost base further. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK5.1 (5.0) on valuation.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Scorpio Tankers (Buy, TP: USD92.00) - Set to pivot from debt to distri...

We see ongoing support for the product tanker markets from geopolitics and a fundamentally strong supply and demand outlook even though the orderbook is creeping up. We would expect Scorpio Tankers to redirect cash flows to shareholder returns when it hits its debt target. We estimate current rates leave more than USD4/share in quarterly firepower (23% yield), with the stock now trading at a P/NAV of 0.9x. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to USD92 (83).

Sparebanken Øst (Hold, TP: NOK53.00) - Strong Q1 and capital position

Boosted by a NOK31m gain from Eksportfinans, further NII expansion and still-modest loan losses, SPOG reported a strong Q1 ROE of ~13% (9% target), despite sustained cost pressure. With lower deposit margins and one fewer interest day more than offset by improved lending margins and solid lending growth, NII rose another 3.8% QOQ. Moreover, given its ample buffer to capital requirements, we see scope for payout ratios to remain near 100% in 2024–2026e. That said, with the stock trading at a 2025...

Leverage too low, more dividends needed

Q2 will likely see the first special dividend. '25e EBITDA +24% vs. consensus. TP NOK 203 (200) – BUY.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK87.00) - Focusing on underlying business

We have made limited estimate changes ahead of the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 15 May), and believe Photocure is moving forward in areas within its control. YOY comparables are affected by Q1 2023 being the last quarter with flex sales in the US. Its partner, Asieris, has filed for marketing approval of Cevira in China; if accepted for review, we believe Photocure would be in line for another milestone payment in Q2. We reiterate our BUY and NOK87 target price.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Minor model adjustments

We have marginally increased our revenue estimates and revised our cost assumptions, owing to the Q1 results. With no surprises related to the Red Sea disruption or the Baltimore bridge accident, focus should shift to shareholder distributions. The revised dividend policy allows for extraordinary dividends at the board’s discretion, something we have not seen before, and the first possibility could be in connection with Q2. We calculate cNOK25/share in excess cash today, potentially on top of N...

EBITDA as expected and no big news

Adj. EBITDA of USD 439m (1% vs. ABGSC, -1% vs. cons). Shipping services and Logistics above ABGSCe, Government and Holdings belowFlat share price given no surprises in the conference call